I sometimes wonder what the alternate reality where semiconductor advances ended in the eighties would look like. We might have had to manage with just a few MB of RAM and efficient ARM cores running at maybe 30 MHz or so. Would we still get web browsers? How about the rest of the digital transformation? One thing I do know for sure. LLMs would have been impossible.
For me the interesting alternate reality is where CPUs got stuck in the 200-400mhz range for speed, but somehow continued to become more efficient. It’s kind of the ideal combination in some ways. It’s fast enough to competently run a nice desktop GUI, but not so fast that you can get overly fancy with it. Eventually you’d end up OSes that look like highly refined versions of System 7.6/Mac OS 8 or Windows 2000, whic…
If we really got stuck in the hundreds of MHz range, I guess we’d see many-core designs coming to consumers earlier. Could have been an interesting world.
Although, I think it would mostly be impossible. Or maybe we’re in that universe already. If you are getting efficiency but not speed, you can always add parallelism. One form of parallelism is pipelining. We’re at like 20 pipeline stages nowadays, right? So in the ideal case if we weren’t able to parallelize in that dimension we’d be at something like 6Ghz/20=300Mhz. That’s pretty hand-wavey, but maybe it is a fun framing.