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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#141

Post by vel0city »

mbreese wrote: post #73
SilverBirch wrote: post #2

To be honest I think the true story here is: > the fleet has traveled approximately 500,000 miles Let's say they average 10mph, and say they operate 10 hours a day, that's 5,000 car-days of travel, or to put it another way about 30 cars over 6 months. That's tiny! That's a robotaxi company that is literally smaller than a lot of taxi companies. One crash in this context is going to just completely blow out their stat…

The more I think about your comment on statistics, the more I change my mind. At first, I think you’re right - these are (thankfully) rare events. And because of this, the accident rate is Poisson distributed. At this low of a rate, it’s really hard to know what the true average is, so we do really need more time/miles to know how good/bad the Teslas are performing. I also suspect they are getting safer over time, bu…

500,000 / 30 years is ~16,667mi/yr. While its a bit above the US average, its not incredibly so. Tons of normal commuters will have driven more than that many miles in 30 years.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#142

Post by sjsdaiuasgdia »

acdha wrote: post #61
kakacik wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. I see nothing wrong here, correction back to reality. I understand why people adored him blindly in the early days, but liking him now after its clear what sort of person he is and always will be is same as liking trump. Many people still do it, but its hardly a defensible position unless on is already invested in his empire…

It’d be best for everyone outside of the company but he and the board would be buried in lawsuits for the rest of their lives. They have a strong personal interest in avoiding that even if it’s well-deserved based on sober data analysis, so they’re pushing the Hail Mary play trying to jump into a bigger new market which they haven’t already ceded to the competition.

We need to bring back the concept of seppuku for situations like that. "We have to lie more because it would be too painful to admit our lies" should be a moment that makes any leader question where they have been, where they are, where they're going, and all of their motivations and reasoning. It should be the sort of "what have I done?" moment that sends a person to a monastery, an asylum, or the grave.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#143

Post by ModernMech »

Of course, it could be no other way for a company that unleashed "FSD Beta" onto the streets and allowed all of us to be subjected to their bloody (literally) beta test. You don't get a safer future with "move fast and break things" mentality. Especially when the CEO is as illiterate as Musk about his own technology that he discount the results of actual experts in the field.

I mean, just look at the trail of headless corpses (there actually are multiple) left by Tesla during this beta test. Weren't we all here to witness a previous version of the thing running straight through a cartoon wall? Of course this thing was always going to end in disappointment -- it's sucked its whole existence. It's never been serious it's always been an 80/20 play hoping to get away with the con without delivering the rest of the 20% that makes it work.

Tesla's technology is bunk, their entire FSD thesis of "vision only" has been a dismal failure, and it's actually going to tank the entire Tesla car brand. I've been saying this for a while and it looks like it's finally starting to happen: Tesla is going to exit the car business never having delivered FSD in any viable capacity (although they'll claim total success), and Musk will retarget his empire to running the same FSD grift but with robots. Musk learned the bigger the promise, the more runway people give you to make it a reality. Spin a big enough yarn and Musk can live the rest of his life delivering nothing -- not Mars, not FSD, not AI, nada -- and people will still call him a genius.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#144

Post by [deleted] »

tzs wrote: post #62
cbeach wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We tend to defend companies that push the frontiers of self-driving cars, because the technology has the potential to save lives and make life easier and cheaper for everyone. As engineers, we understand that the technology will go from unsafe, to par-with-humans, to safer-than-humans, but in order for it to get to the latter, it requires much validation and training in an intermediate state, with appropriate safegua…

Note: this is in response to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46823760 which is from the same commenter but got killed before there was time to post any links refuting its claims. > The "salute" in particular is simply a politically-expedient freeze-frame from a Musk speech, where he said "my heart goes out to you all" and happened to raise his arm. I could provide freeze-frame images of Obama and Hilary Clinton…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#145

Post by LunicLynx »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #133
LunicLynx wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I think Tesla should be transparent, this article doesn't really make sure it is comparing apples to apples either. I think its weird to characterize it as legitimate and the say "Go Tesla convince me ohterwise" as if the same audience would ever be reached by Tesla or people would care to do their due diligence.

It’s not weird. They have a history of over promising to the point that one could say they just straight up lie on a regular basis. The bar is higher for them because they have abused the public’s trust and it has to be earned again. The results have to speak for Tesla very loudly and very clearly. And so far they don’t.

But this is more your feelings than actually factual.

I mean sure you can say that the timelines did slip a lot but that doesn’t really have anything to with the rest that is insinuated here.

I would argue a timeline slipping doesn’t mean you go about killing people and lie about it next. I would even go so far as to say that the timelines did slip to exactly avoid that.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#146

Post by mbreese »

vel0city wrote: post #141
mbreese wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more I think about your comment on statistics, the more I change my mind. At first, I think you’re right - these are (thankfully) rare events. And because of this, the accident rate is Poisson distributed. At this low of a rate, it’s really hard to know what the true average is, so we do really need more time/miles to know how good/bad the Teslas are performing. I also suspect they are getting safer over time, bu…

500,000 / 30 years is ~16,667mi/yr. While its a bit above the US average, its not incredibly so. Tons of normal commuters will have driven more than that many miles in 30 years.

That’s not quite the point. I’m a bit of an outlier, I don’t drive much daily, but make long trips fairly often. The point with focusing on 500,000 miles is that that should be enough of an observation period to be able to make some comparisons. The parent comment was making it seem like that was too low. Putting it into context of how much I’ve driven makes me think that 500,000 miles is enough to make a valid comparison.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#147

Post by ghaff »

eloisant wrote: post #136
SJMG wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how defensible the lead was. The only reason BYD isn't the only game in town is tariffs. The pivot to Optimus is ridiculous though. They can't get a car to drive truly autonomously after more than a decade and they want to expand the degrees of freedom?

Tesla had a good brand image in the early 2010, they could have positioned themselves like the quality/luxury brand for EV and have people buy Tesla for the brand itself like people do for Apple. Instead they let Elon made their brand so toxic people are actively avoiding it.

I'm skeptical. If someone really wants a Tesla, my guess is that they'll rationalize Musk's actions or least compartmentalize them.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#148

Post by DennisP »

kakacik wrote: post #54
epolanski wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

> Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. I see nothing wrong here, correction back to reality. I understand why people adored him blindly in the early days, but liking him now after its clear what sort of person he is and always will be is same as liking trump. Many people still do it, but its hardly a defensible position unless on is already invested in his empire…

I saw a pretty convincing argument that Musk fried his brain with ketamine, written by a former ketamine abuser who saw a lot of familiar behavior. I don't think Musk is the same guy now that he was in the early days.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#149

Post by sejje »

eloisant wrote: post #136
SJMG wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how defensible the lead was. The only reason BYD isn't the only game in town is tariffs. The pivot to Optimus is ridiculous though. They can't get a car to drive truly autonomously after more than a decade and they want to expand the degrees of freedom?

Tesla had a good brand image in the early 2010, they could have positioned themselves like the quality/luxury brand for EV and have people buy Tesla for the brand itself like people do for Apple. Instead they let Elon made their brand so toxic people are actively avoiding it.

Some people. Others are actively embracing it.

Most people don't know about the political aspect.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#150

Post by sejje »

ghaff wrote: post #147
eloisant wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla had a good brand image in the early 2010, they could have positioned themselves like the quality/luxury brand for EV and have people buy Tesla for the brand itself like people do for Apple. Instead they let Elon made their brand so toxic people are actively avoiding it.

I'm skeptical. If someone really wants a Tesla, my guess is that they'll rationalize Musk's actions or least compartmentalize them.

I think Facebook is even more universally thought of as a bad company, and everyone still engages there, too.
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