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The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

bayramovanar.substack.com

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Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#141

Post by RoadieRoller »

semiquaver wrote: post #135

> Till ~2010, a layoff was a sign of failure. It meant the CEO messed up. > > In 2024, a layoff is a signal of “discipline.” Companies lay off thousands, and their stock price jumps. Citation needed. Author started their career after 2010 so they are not basing that on personal experience. In my experience this is not true.

I am not OP. But to support his arguments.

CEO Failure News Example (2013): https://techcrunch.com/2013/08/06/fail-week-kevin-ryan/

'Stock Price Jumps' Example (2026): https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-stock-jumps-pre-market...

Not sure if it is the articles I picked up, but the amazon example doesn't have a single mention of Andy Jassy!

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#142

Post by boh144 »

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #92
j05ev1f3 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole article rests on this false economic claim, that traditional industries don’t overhire based on expectations. They absolutely do, ALL THE TIME. Manufacturing, automotive, airlines, energy etc. all of them make demand bets and lay people off when those bets fail. Cheap money amplified this cycle, but this isn’t a tech specific "failure", it’s just how forecasting under uncertainty work. It’s incredible how s…

> It’s incredible how some engineers assume they understand economics, then proceed to fail on some of its most basic premises. This tends to happen when engineering-style certainty is applied to systems that are driven by incentives and uncertainty. Dunning Kruger effect, am I right? We consider we are smart because we can make computers go beep boop so we know about the economy too. I mean, I am part of this too ev…

The scary part is when people who can make beep boop, and because the market has rewarded them for it, think they can skip the entire corpus of the humanities yet put forth opinions on how to shape society.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#143

Post by mexicocitinluez »

HWR_14 wrote: post #84
mexicocitinluez wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also anecdotally, I've had a handful of software development positions throughout the years (never at a position with more than 200-300 person company) and have yet to be laid off due to money. I've yet to be laid off at all, but that's irrelevant. I truly believe that these new tools will actually hurt the bigger companies and conversely help smaller ones. I'm in healthcare. The big players in the EMR space are Epic…

> What if, instead of having to reach out to the big players, the economics of having a software developer or 2 on staff make it such that you could build custom-tailored, bespoke software to work "with" your company and not against? It's probably risk and liability and not development costs that keep things from moving in house. Not things AI is great at mitigating.

That's not actually true. It might be for the bigger companies, but certainly not the smaller ones.

And "risk" in this industry could mean any number of different things. We, as a medium-sized provider, have a BAA with Microsoft for HIPAA. That means that I can utilize information I've gotten from my EMR and build line-of-business apps that bridge the gaps between other systems they may have to work in. In fact, our Microsoft tenant has a much higher level of security than the underlying EMR.

I'm quite literally living what I spoke about above. The reason why I was brought in was because teh current CEO has a very tech-focused mindset, otherwise agencies usually can't afford a full-time software developer. Now, those economics are changing.

Also, I haven't heard of an agency that didn't want custom reports built because they found the default ones unsuitable. So even something like the ability to mainline Power BI reports would be compelling.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#144

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

Havoc wrote: post #120

Don’t think it needs to be either or. ZIRP, AI, over hiring, and a wave of boot camp labour supply I suspect all contribute. Plus we’re also likely approaching saturation on a lot of fronts with attention and ad density saturation. Things like YouTube seem to be on the edge of how much ads they can force feed without people just not using yt because it’s unusable. Enshitification isn’t a cycle, it’s a one way trip. C…

But on the other side there are countless opportunities for valuable revenue-generating products that aren't based on dopamine addiction and/or ad tech.

It's a values problem, not an opportunity problem. Tech industry management is locked in a death spiral because it lacks the ethics or the vision to create real value, as opposed to extractive predatory value.

This applies equally to consumer relationships and employee relationships. The default value is "How can I screw these people over to get more of what I want?"

And that is - ironically - a failure of brain chemistry and emotional regulation.

Because making number go up is a catastrophic addiction in its own right.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#145

Post by mexicocitinluez »

antonymoose wrote: post #71
anonymous908213 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't they still going to need to reach out to the big players because of the regulatory environment? And for good reason, as it happens. We don't need hospitals handing over the public's health data to the cheapest person they can find to prompt it all into Claude.

You can be a small player and still deliver immense value in health care I work at a firm in a niche with about 30 employees. We follow all regulations and go above and beyond them in regards to security.

Absolutely. I'm in the same boat (a bit bigger with around 200).

It's crazy the underlying business has succeeded despite being boxed in by the software they're currently using. And at least in my niche, you only have a few options. Each with their own unique quirks.

Instead, EMR's could position themselves as more of a "data provider" where you build bespoke software on top of the underlying storage. And to that end, having the abiliy to pump out small, focused apps can be really beneficial.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#147

Post by rpdillon »

Bayramovanar wrote: post #127
brk wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Factory overhiring can happen easily by adding speculative 2nd and 3rd shifts. No need for extra equipment, tooling, or physical capacity. Lines with specialty equipment and tooling can also often be sped up. That can allow for other jobs to be added to all the functions that support the processes involved before and after the specialty equipment. New employees also often require training and some apprenticeship time…

I am really not debating whether over hiring is possible in factories. in tech cost of hiring is lower which makes headcount a much easier speculative bet and layoffs a much easier reset when the bet fails.

The 90th percentile of factory workers makes $45,000. The 90th percentile of software engineers makes $230,000. Hiring in tech is insanely expensive; I'm not familiar with hiring in factories, but it can't possibly have the supply problems that tech workers have. I do on average 115 interviews for every person I hire in tech.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#148

Post by semiquaver »

RoadieRoller wrote: post #141
semiquaver wrote: post #135

> Till ~2010, a layoff was a sign of failure. It meant the CEO messed up. > > In 2024, a layoff is a signal of “discipline.” Companies lay off thousands, and their stock price jumps. Citation needed. Author started their career after 2010 so they are not basing that on personal experience. In my experience this is not true.

I am not OP. But to support his arguments. CEO Failure News Example (2013): https://techcrunch.com/2013/08/06/fail-week-kevin-ryan/ 'Stock Price Jumps' Example (2026): https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-stock-jumps-pre-market... Not sure if it is the articles I picked up, but the amazon example doesn't have a single mention of Andy Jassy!

It’s very easy to find examples of stock prices jumping after major layoffs going back may years, e.g. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/1996/jan/03/att-rings-in-y...

That article even says “ Wall Street, in keeping with its cheerful attitude about layoffs, […] investors bet that profit-sweetening job cuts, though perhaps not as dramatic as AT&T’s, would remain in vogue among large corporations.

Large layoffs have always been looked upon favorably by investors.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#149

Post by mexicocitinluez »

anonymous908213 wrote: post #49
mexicocitinluez wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also anecdotally, I've had a handful of software development positions throughout the years (never at a position with more than 200-300 person company) and have yet to be laid off due to money. I've yet to be laid off at all, but that's irrelevant. I truly believe that these new tools will actually hurt the bigger companies and conversely help smaller ones. I'm in healthcare. The big players in the EMR space are Epic…

Aren't they still going to need to reach out to the big players because of the regulatory environment? And for good reason, as it happens. We don't need hospitals handing over the public's health data to the cheapest person they can find to prompt it all into Claude.

> Aren't they still going to need to reach out to the big players because of the regulatory environment?

First, saying "We can now build software faster" doesn't imply that "we" won't eventually include professionals. There is nothing stopping someone from building up an app and having people come in to polish it up.

Second, "regulatory environment" doesn't actually mean somethin because every part of the industry has different regulations and requirements. There are different standards for what big hospitals can use and the software requirements than there are for home care software. So trying to wave this "you can't because of regulations" wand doesn't make sense if you're actually in the business.

Third, I was speaking more to the small-medium sized agency.

Fourth,

> We don't need hospitals handing over the public's health data to the cheapest person they can find to prompt it all into Claude.

Means absolutely nothing since you don't need to feed health data into a Claude instance to build healthcare apps. It sounds like you aren't in the field or familiar with it.

And lastly, if you're a Microsoft customer with a BAA, then you're already covered by HIPAA. Again, not something you would know if you weren't in the industry, but now you do.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#150

Post by baggachipz »

NoGravitas wrote: post #133

IMO, this is a not-wrong but less insightful perspective on what Ed Zitron talks about in The Rot Economy. Cycles of overhiring and layoffs happen, but they're not the core mechanism. AI isn't the cause, but it's also not a scapegoat. It's just the current placeholder, like blockchain and the metaverse, that allow companies to have their valuation based on growth rather than profit. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ro…

Right, AI isn't the reason, but it sure as hell is an accelerant and part of the pattern that ultimately is extremely unsustainable. It's going to be really ugly when it ends but it's inevitable.
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