Wow, this part where they describe skills sounds quite odd
https://github.com/openai/codex/blob/99f47d6e9a3546c14c43af9...
Why wouldnt they just expose the files directly? Having the model ask for them as regular files sounds a bit odd
Unrolling the Codex agent loop
141–150 of 220 posts
Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
until Microsoft buys it and enshits it.
This is a fun thought experiment. I believe that we are now at the $5 Uber (2014) phase of LLMs. Where will it go from here? How much will a synthetic mid-level dev (Opus 4.5) cost in 2028, after the VC subsidies are gone? I would imagine as much as possible? Dynamic pricing? Will the SOTA model labs even sell API keys to anyone other than partners/whales? Why even that? They are the personalized app devs and hosts!…
While I remember $5 Ubers fondly, I think this situation is significantly more complex:
- Models will get cheaper, maybe way cheaper
- Model harnesses will get more complex, maybe way more complex
- Local models may become competitive
- Capital-backed access to more tokens may become absurdly advantaged, or not
The only thing I think you can count on is that more money buys more tokens, so the more money you have, the more power you will have ... as always.
But whether some version of the current subsidy, which levels the playing field, will persist seems really hard to model.
All I can say is, the bad scenarios I can imagine are pretty bad indeed—much worse than that it's now cheaper for me to own a car, while it wasn't 10 years ago.
Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#143Earlier quoted context omitted.
until Microsoft buys it and enshits it.
This is a fun thought experiment. I believe that we are now at the $5 Uber (2014) phase of LLMs. Where will it go from here? How much will a synthetic mid-level dev (Opus 4.5) cost in 2028, after the VC subsidies are gone? I would imagine as much as possible? Dynamic pricing? Will the SOTA model labs even sell API keys to anyone other than partners/whales? Why even that? They are the personalized app devs and hosts!…
The real question is how long it'll take for Z.ai to clone it at 80% quality and offer it at cost. The answer appears to be "like 3 months".
Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
At this point I just assume Claude Code isn't OSS out of embarrassment for how poor the code actually is. I've got a $200/mo claude subscription I'm about to cancel out of frustration with just how consistently broken, slow, and annoying to use the claude CLI is.
Interesting. Have you tested other LLMs or CLIs as a comparison? Curious which one you’re finding more reliable than Opus 4.5 through Claude Code.
Codex is quite a bit better in terms of code quality and usability. My only frustration is that it's a lot less interactive than Claude. On the plus side, I can also trust it to go off and implement a deep complicated feature without a lot of input from me.
Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a fun thought experiment. I believe that we are now at the $5 Uber (2014) phase of LLMs. Where will it go from here? How much will a synthetic mid-level dev (Opus 4.5) cost in 2028, after the VC subsidies are gone? I would imagine as much as possible? Dynamic pricing? Will the SOTA model labs even sell API keys to anyone other than partners/whales? Why even that? They are the personalized app devs and hosts!…
The real question is how long it'll take for Z.ai to clone it at 80% quality and offer it at cost. The answer appears to be "like 3 months".
This is a super interesting dynamic! The CCP is really good at subsidizing and flooding global markets, but in the end, it takes power to generate tokens.
In my Uber comparison, it was physical hardware on location... taxis, but this is not the case with token delivery.
This is such a complex situation in that regard, however, once the market settles and monopolies are created, eventually the price will be what market can bear. Will that actually create an increase in gross planet product, or will the SOTA token providers just eat up the existing gross planet product, with no increase?
I suppose whoever has the cheapest electricity will win this race to the bottom? But... will that ever increase global product?
___
Upon reflection, the comment above was likely influenced by this truly amazing quote from Satya Nadella's interview on the Dwarkesh podcast. This might be one of the most enlightened things that I have ever heard in regard to modern times:
> Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10%.
https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella#:~:text=Us%20self%2...
Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
I used that too, but CC currently has features like hooks that codex team has refused to add far too many times.
Hmm, this seems promising? https://github.com/openai/codex/pull/9796
OpenAI does not merge feature PRs. But you could try it out in a fork.
Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#147Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#148Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#149The best part about this blog post is that none of it is a surprise – Codex CLI is open source. It's nice to be able to go through the internals without having to reverse engineer it. Their communication is exceptional, too. Eric Traut (of Pyright fame) is all over the issues and PRs. https://github.com/openai/codex
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Re: Unrolling the Codex agent loop
#150The best part about this blog post is that none of it is a surprise – Codex CLI is open source. It's nice to be able to go through the internals without having to reverse engineer it. Their communication is exceptional, too. Eric Traut (of Pyright fame) is all over the issues and PRs. https://github.com/openai/codex
I appreciate the sentiment but I’m giving OpenAI 0 credit for anything open source, given their founding charter and how readily it was abandoned when it became clear the work could be financially exploited.
> when it became clear the work could be financially exploited
That is not the obvious reason for the change. Training models got a lot more expensive than anyone thought it would.
You can of course always cast shade on people's true motivations and intentions, but there is a plain truth here that is simply silly to ignore.
Training "frontier" open LLMs seems to be exactly possible when a) you are Meta, have substantial revenue from other sources and simply are okay with burning your cash reserves to try to make something happen and b) you copy and distill from the existing models.