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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#141

Post by mothballed »

throwaway290 wrote: post #102
mothballed wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 10th amendment limits the federal government to the enumerated powers. So your argument that it "isn't prohibited" isn't how this works. You have to justify it under an enumerated power (which, you might well be able to do, though this is debatable).

> The 10th amendment limits the federal government to the enumerated powers. federal reserve is not government... that's kinda the entire point) its why current US admin is being so butthurt about it, it's not under its control.

  What does it mean that the Federal Reserve is "independent within the government"?

  The Federal Reserve, like many other central banks, is an independent government agency
The federal reserve calls themselves "within the government" and a government agency. Isn't it fraud (and indeed wire fraud) to falsely represent yourself as a government agency to induce a financial transaction?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_12799.htm

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#142

Post by jmyeet »

The most important thing to understand is where the value of the US dollar comes from. It's the US military. More generally speaking, it's US foreign policy. The US military is the force that enables foreign policy.

Understand this and you'll avoid falling into various traps and conspiracy theories. For example, there are people who believe that the US invasion of Iraq was caused by Iraq wanting to sell oil in euros instead of dollars.

This is a nonsen theory because every oil transaction could be denominated in euros tomorrow and it wouldn't change anything. The same demand for US dollars would still exist so people would simply convert to euros, buy oil then convert back.

This same understanding debunks the "threat" of a BRICS alliance.

The real problem, if you can call it that, is we have an administration who is both incredibly inept AND intent on destroying the post-WW2 world order. Wealth inequality is getting so bad and the deficit is so bad. Worse, nobody expects either to improve anytime soon. I'm not saying the budget needs to be in balance. It doesn't. A country doesn't work like a business when you can print your own money. But at some point, crippling public debt (in terms of GDP) will devalue the dollar.

Put another way: the illusion of "safety" is at risk. It's just a question of when the vibes shift.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#144

Post by therobots927 »

BowBun wrote: post #86

Just last week, I was accused on HN of "not knowing what I'm talking about" when sharing data showing, and my interpretation of, a declining US dollar globally. It is so obvious in the context of globalization: countries seeking power will chip away at fiscal dominance of others with a thousand cuts. Why wouldn't they? Especially after years of getting bullied. So many people are so dependent on this reality that I t…

Similarly I was downvoted for pointing out that the developed markets index returns (30%) doubled US market returns (15%) over the last year. Simultaneously the value of the dollar has dropped 10%. I simply stated that we’re seeing capital flight from the US. Ray Dalio said the same thing this morning.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#145

Post by belter »

Key Takeaways from the JP Morgan Research:

• Despite a smaller share of global trade and output, the dollar still dominates in transactions like trade invoicing.

• Dedollarization is advancing in central bank reserves, with USD share at a two decade low.

• Foreign ownership of US Treasuries has declined for 15 years, signaling reduced external reliance on the dollar.

• The shift is most visible in commodities, where an increasing share of energy is priced in non USD contracts.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#147

Post by jonasdegendt »

ambicapter wrote: post #68
torlok wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I've been trying to read more about investing properly recently and this is such an annoying characteristic of most advice you read. Sometimes it's also "well, economic theory says this, and that doesn't follow the behavior of these markets, so decide for yourself".

I feel like we do generally brush, a little too easily, over the fact that economics is still a theoretical science, of which finance is subsequently the practical and technical implementation. Much like psychology, sometimes we turn out to be right about theories, sometimes we're not.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#148

Post by therobots927 »

shevy-java wrote: post #121
BowBun wrote: post #86

Just last week, I was accused on HN of "not knowing what I'm talking about" when sharing data showing, and my interpretation of, a declining US dollar globally. It is so obvious in the context of globalization: countries seeking power will chip away at fiscal dominance of others with a thousand cuts. Why wouldn't they? Especially after years of getting bullied. So many people are so dependent on this reality that I t…

HN may not have the best experts - people are kind of quick to downvote. Almost in a reddit-like fashion.

Plenty of Elon musk types / admirers who think that because they’re good with computers they know everything about everything.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#149

Post by fatbird »

calvinmorrison wrote: post #76
munk-a wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't prohibited by the constitution and was created as an independent body. You are correct that it wasn't specifically outlined by the constitution but that's an empty statement - the constitution included the allowance of the creation of agencies and laws outside of itself... that's the main power and strength of the constitution. Your statement was equivalent to saying that Hacker News has no constitutional ri…

Maybe unsaid but the idea that Congress can create an organization that is not executed by the executive is the issue

It wasn't an issue for 250 years, or at least until the Unitary Executive Theory became a dream of the Federalist Society.
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