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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#141

Post by otikik »

Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

> gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe?

Crypto bros. Remember when all of them were saying that NFTs were the future?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#142

Post by CPLX »

echoangle wrote: post #137
gpm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the prediction market is for a non-trivial amount, it's likely someone is going to kill you in exchange for the money the prediction market offered them . The prediction market isn't acting as a prophet here, it's acting as a plausibly deniable murder for hire service and you are its victim. The people "betting against" you dying just paid to have you killed.

Yes, OOP might have chosen a suboptimal example here. But for general newsworthy events, people aren’t going to be in positions to manually make them happen. And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

> And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

Are you fucking kidding? Based just on current events, that is absolutely not a statement you can make without at least trying to prove it.

If you do try to prove that you will fail as the idea that people would start wars for profit is as old as wars.

Just evaluate the sentence you've just created. How many people exist who have the capability to start wars or influence the start of wars? It's a lot. What else do you know about these people and their motivations?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#143

Post by woah »

mathgeek wrote: post #64
vlark wrote: post #48

Stop calling them "prediction markets" and start calling them what they really are: corporatized bookies.

They're also heavily, heavily fixed of course. There's nothing stopping anonymous folks from betting on things they control/influence.

That's the point. To surface non-public information as a price signal.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#144

Post by 0x3f »

giantg2 wrote: post #89

What is the legality for US residents? Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. Apparently this is just a checkbox for the user to attest to. They don't even do IP geolocation, never mind payment checks. So it's currently illegal for them to run this in the US. But is it illegal for users to participate?

They do check geolocation on order submit. You can read the site from anywhere, though.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#145

Post by perfmode »

smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

The missing piece is the distinction between a market that observes reality and a market that instigates it.

The criticism is about the systemic risk of converting prediction markets into "Assassination Markets"—mechanisms where the payout is not a reward for foresight, but a bounty for action.

In the case of Maduro, the operation cost around $300 million so a $400,000 payout isn’t providing a financial incentive.

But in the case of assassination, a $400,000 payout is sufficient motivation.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#146

Post by pseudalopex »

giantg2 wrote: post #89

What is the legality for US residents? Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate. Apparently this is just a checkbox for the user to attest to. They don't even do IP geolocation, never mind payment checks. So it's currently illegal for them to run this in the US. But is it illegal for users to participate?

> Right now Polymarket is subject to a federal agreement that they don't let US people participate.

This changed last month.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#147

Post by otikik »

cft wrote: post #57

If insiders trade, the market becomes more accurate, which is good for society. Like WikiLeaks. Thus the MSN panic, the legacy establishment wants Polymarket to follow Assange's path.

That sounds a lot like "the magical hand of the markets" and "trickle down economics". A hope surrounded by a semblance of logic but not a lot thought put on the important details of how things actually work.

With this I mean: I can think of several ways in which this would go in the other direction (bad for society). And I am not an economics expert.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#148

Post by morshu9001 »

Part of me wishes there were prediction markets for flight delays. The ETAs are wildly inaccurate, like last time the counter staff suggested I not reschedule cause our plane was arriving in 15min, when I could see on a slightly hard to find site that the plane was still grounded 500mi away.

Part of me is careful what I wish for, starting with passengers bothering staff even more.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#149

Post by kelnos »

smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

> I'm trying to understand what the criticism is here, because the example seems to support the point that these are meant to be a way of learning the future, not oppose it.

Indeed. Insider trading is a feature of prediction markets, not a bug. There are two kinds of people who participate in prediction markets:

1. People who have insider information, or at least more sophisticated predictive capability than your average person.

2. Gamblers.

In effect, prediction markets are a way to move wealth from the second group to the first. If you understand that and still want to participate, cool. It's your money, and you're allowed to gamble it away if you find that entertaining.

At any rate, given the relatively small-potatoes level of bets going on at Polymarket and Kalshi, the article author's breathless anxiety about this is a bit overblown.

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