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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#141

Post by bethekidyouwant »

anoojb wrote: post #138
Fiveplus wrote: post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

So let's say TMSC reciprocated Apple's consistency as a customer by giving them preferential treatment for capacity. It's good business after all. However, everyone knows that good faith reciprocity at that scale is not rewarded. Apple is ruthless. There are probably thousands of untold stories of how hard Apple has hammered it's suppliers over the years. While Apple has good consumer brand loyalty, they arguably tre…

Agreed TSMC can do whatever they want. in 2027 no other fabs will match what tsmc has today, anything that requires the latest process node is going to get more expensive, so your apple silicone and your AMD chips

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#142

Post by Forgeties79 »

anoojb wrote: post #138
Fiveplus wrote: post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

So let's say TMSC reciprocated Apple's consistency as a customer by giving them preferential treatment for capacity. It's good business after all. However, everyone knows that good faith reciprocity at that scale is not rewarded. Apple is ruthless. There are probably thousands of untold stories of how hard Apple has hammered it's suppliers over the years. While Apple has good consumer brand loyalty, they arguably tre…

> they arguably treat their suppliers relatively poorly compared to the Gold standard like Costco.

I’m not saying you’re wrong but you’re previous paragraph sounding like you were wondering if it was the case vs. here you’re saying it’s known. Is this all true? Do they have a reputation for hammering their suppliers?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#143

Post by jlarocco »

YmiYugy wrote: post #39

It seems a bit odd that data center operators aren’t willing to put their money where their mouth is. Data center operators say: expand more quickly. TSMC says: we need long term demand to justify that. And all the data center guys say is: don’t worry that won’t be an issue, trust us. I would think that if they were serious they would commit to cofinancing new foundries or signing long term minimum purchasing agreeme…

The data center builders are hesitant, too.

https://youtu.be/K86KWa71aOc?t=483

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#144

Post by apercu »

Fiveplus wrote: post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

"Apple is smart. If the AI capex cycle flattens in late '27 as models hit diminishing returns, does Apple regain pricing power simply by being the only customer that can guarantee wafer commits five years out?"

That's the take I would pursue if I were Apple.

A quiet threat of "We buy wafers on consumer demand curves. You’re selling them on venture capital and hype"

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#145

Post by alex43578 »

FuriouslyAdrift wrote: post #80
alex43578 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I just don’t know that there’s the will to blow up the world economy for which flag flies over Taiwan. China absorbing Taiwan (especially to Americans) just doesn’t seem like a radical, terrifying concept. A Hong Kong style negotiated transfer might be best for the world - Taiwanese that want to leave can, the US can build up a parallel source of semiconductors, China gets Taiwan without firing a shot.

That didn't work out so well for Hong Kong.

Is it better than the alternative? Do you think TSMC wants to see a Dongfeng or ATACMS headed for their fab, if the alternative is a negotiated handover?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#146

Post by btown »

FuriouslyAdrift wrote: post #89
dangus wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Owning a leading edge fab is not practical for most companies, even huge some ones like Apple. Intel has even struggled with it since they traditionally didn’t sell capacity to other buyers. It worked for Intel because they traditionally had a near-monopoly over the laptop, desktop, and server chip market. Apple certainly has the money to spin up their own chip fabricator, but there’s no guarantee it would be as good…

Apple already is in the process of moving "most" chip production to Texas Instruments in Sherman, TX. https://appleinsider.com/articles/25/08/22/apple-chips-to-be...

Per that very article, Sherman will be for support chips for power and peripherals, on legacy 45nm+ nodes.

Apple's investing heavily in the TSMC fab in Arizona, due to open in 2027, to have 3nm capabilities for its flagship chips, but it's unlikely that would ever cover a majority of that chipmaking.

https://www.aztechcouncil.org/tucson-chipmaker-tsmc-arizona-...

https://wccftech.com/tsmc-plans-to-bring-3nm-production-to-t...

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#147

Post by mohsen1 »

mitjam wrote: post #139

As a heavy user of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google AI APIs, I’m increasingly tempted to buy a Mac Studio (M3 Ultra or M4 Pro) as a contingency in case the economics of hosted inference change significantly.

the thing is GLM 4.7 is easily doing the work Opus was doing for me but to run it fully you'll need a much bigger hardware than a Mac Studio. $10k buys you a lot of API calls from z.ai or Anthropic. It's just not economically viable to run a good model at home.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#148

Post by pram »

mitjam wrote: post #139

As a heavy user of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google AI APIs, I’m increasingly tempted to buy a Mac Studio (M3 Ultra or M4 Pro) as a contingency in case the economics of hosted inference change significantly.

FWIW the M5 appears to be an actual large leap for LLM inference with the new GPU and Neural Accelerator. So id wait for the Pro/Max before jumping on M3 Ultra.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#149

Post by flyinglizard »

roughly wrote: post #133
bombcar wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US tech companies aren’t built to be like 3M is/was and able to have their hands in infinite pies. The giant conglomerates in Asia seem more able to do it. Google has somewhat tried but then famously kills most everything even things that could be successful if smaller businesses.

I think there's something about both the myth of the unicorn and of the hero founder/CEO in tech that forces a push towards legibility and easy narratives for a company - it means that, to a greater degree than other industries, large tech companies are a storytelling exercise, and "giant corporate blob that sprawls into everything" isn't a sexy story, nor is "consistent 3% YoY gains," even when that's translating in…

It's because the storytelling needed for Wall Street. It's the only way to get sky high revenue multiples, selling a dream, because if you're a conglomerate all you can do is to sell the P&L - it's like selling an index. If you have a business division that's does exceedingly well compared to the rest, you make more money by spinning it off.

I think Asian companies are much less dependent on public markets and have as strong private control (chaebols in South Korea for example - Samsung, LG, Hyundai etc).

If you look at US companies that are under "family control" you might see a similar sprawl, like Cargill, Koch, I'd even put Berkshire in this class even though it's not "family controlled" in the literal sense, it's still associated with two men and not a professional CEO.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#150

Post by boredatoms »

mitjam wrote: post #139

As a heavy user of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google AI APIs, I’m increasingly tempted to buy a Mac Studio (M3 Ultra or M4 Pro) as a contingency in case the economics of hosted inference change significantly.

If theres a market crash, there could be a load cheap H100s hitting ebay
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