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Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

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Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#141

Post by tptacek »

zjzkshz wrote: post #139
tptacek wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The protests are, by credible reporting, huge, reflected in the scale of the number of arrests and fatalities. Their antecedents include sky-high unemployment, the highest inflation rates in the world, and water and power rationing --- far more severe and far more directly material conditions than what preceded the 2022 protests. Diverse outlets have the signal chant of the protesters "Neither Gaza Nor Lebanon, My Li…

> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal. > and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed th…

I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked less.

Iran, on the other hand, partly as a result of Khomeinism and the status quo ante of the Iranian Revolution, when the military was a big part of the repression apparatus in the Shah's state, has more or less gutted its official military service branches. As we just saw, Israel literally controls Iran's own airspace. They flew slow drones over Tehran, presumably just as a "fuck you". Iran placed a huge bet on projecting military force through regional proxies --- the "Axis of Resistance". What they have instead of a modern military is the IRGC. See how that went for them!

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#143

Post by lbrito »

bpt3 wrote: post #137
lbrito wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The historical part about the shah is straightforward and uncontroversial. Pick up a history book covering 20th century Iran. What part of the comment is disputable?

Let's step through these one by one: > Western governments do not want democracy in Iran. This is purely speculation, and is not generally true based on statements from Western governments. What I would say is that Western governments want stability in Iran, just like virtually every other nation. If the current leaders in Iran were not sponsoring terrorists across the world, weren't actively pursuing the most danger…

>not generally true based on statements from Western governments.

Its wild that someone can say this with a straight face.

>What I would say is that Western governments want stability in Iran, just like virtually every other nation.

While "stability" is being generous, this is more or less true. Western governments want whatever form of government is most beneficial to them, which usually implies some form of "stability". What it does not imply is any form of democracy or liberalism. The last 100+ years in the region demonstrate this, with the British and US supporting undemocratic, sometimes brutal regimes that were beneficial to them.

>The second part of this is true (the Shah was a poor ruler), but the first does not appear to be true.

That is literally one of the easiest claims to verify. 5 seconds google search:

"As Iranian protests grow in size, an unlikely figure is gaining prominence—the son of the country’s reviled shah, who was toppled in the 1979 revolution.

Iranians across the country are chanting slogans in support of Reza Pahlavi, whose father, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, ruled the country for decades."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iranians-are-rallying-a...

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#144

Post by zjzkshz »

tptacek wrote: post #141
zjzkshz wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's also not much evidence that any major government in the world wants Iran toppled I’m sorry what? Maybe this is an argument over terminology, but Israel absolutely wants Iran toppled in any colloquial definition of the word. This has been their stated goal since the 90s. And much of their activity in the Middle East since then is towards this goal. > and especially Israel --- which has basically depantsed th…

I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked…

What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal.

I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or any) dog is a sizable gain. Regarding Iran I think they know this. Their military is structured to operate in a post regime world. But that world doesn’t have the capacity to produce nuclear weapons, which is the key goal Israel is after. Iran with nuclear weapons likely ensures the regimes existence for the foreseeable future.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#145

Post by tptacek »

zjzkshz wrote: post #144
tptacek wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know there's a sizable cohort of online people in the west who are convicted of the idea that Israel exists solely as a US proxy and is held in check only by Iran, but obviously no. Israel --- leave aside all the moral stuff right now --- is a hypercapable advanced high-state-capacity regional nuclear power with an extremely effective military. If they didn't buy arms from us, they'd buy them from someone we liked…

What point are you trying to make here? I said Israel obviously wants Iran gone and stands to gain a lot from doing so. You didn’t address either of those points, which are extremely relevant when trying to understand why foreign powers want this regime removed and would be involved in its removal. I agree Israel is not a US proxy (the tail wags the dog in this relationship), but freeing oneself from needing the (or…

You literally just asked me to write that. I didn't have a point to make; I was answering a question you just asked.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#146

Post by Aloisius »

gm678 wrote: post #70
observationist wrote: post #3

This looks like it might be the end for the current regime. There are still people getting information out, and they are tearing down and burning state buildings - around 3000 protesters killed since the crackdown began, but there appear to be tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people who have risen up against the ayatollah, with an unknown number of state forces and officials killed. Crazy start to the year.

I don't see any news source anywhere on the internet claiming that 3000 number - anti-government sources have said 'hundreds' of protestors have been killed, whereas the Iranian state media has been silent on the death toll except confirming 109 members of security forces killed.

I believe it's all unverified right now.

> "Unverified reports indicate that at least several hundreds, and according to some sources, more than 2,000 people may have been killed," IHR said in a statement, adding that according to its estimate, more than 2,600 protesters had been arrested.[1]

> However, starting with reports from a handful of Tehran hospitals, an informal, expatriate group of academics and professionals calculated that protester deaths could have reached 6,000 through Saturday.[2]

> IHR said that "according to some estimates more than 6,000 may have been killed", but warned that the almost four-day internet blackout imposed by the Iranian authorities makes it "extremely difficult to independently verify these reports".[3]

[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-protests-us-trump-death-to...

[2] https://time.com/7345347/iran-protests-death-toll-estimate-t...

[3] https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260112-live-iran-...

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#147

Post by Aloisius »

pazimzadeh wrote: post #72
observationist wrote: post #3

This looks like it might be the end for the current regime. There are still people getting information out, and they are tearing down and burning state buildings - around 3000 protesters killed since the crackdown began, but there appear to be tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people who have risen up against the ayatollah, with an unknown number of state forces and officials killed. Crazy start to the year.

There’s no opposition though? As much as some people outside Iran want, I don’t think the Shah’s son has enough of a base of support inside Iran. This doesn’t seem very different than the 2008 and Mahsa protests. Most likely there will be an internal reorganization towards economic reform and moderate social policies.

Iran's currency collapsed. That generally requires more than platitudes and token reform to recover from.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#148

Post by pazimzadeh »

Aloisius wrote: post #147
pazimzadeh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no opposition though? As much as some people outside Iran want, I don’t think the Shah’s son has enough of a base of support inside Iran. This doesn’t seem very different than the 2008 and Mahsa protests. Most likely there will be an internal reorganization towards economic reform and moderate social policies.

Iran's currency collapsed. That generally requires more than platitudes and token reform to recover from.

Agreed, I’m saying the regime will pass reforms (or try to, given sanctions). I would love for the end of the regime, but who tell me who will take its place?

Realistic best case scenario right now is a situation like England where there is technically a monarch (who also heads the church) but they practically hold no power (less and less over time).

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#149

Post by Aloisius »

burnt-resistor wrote: post #78
andrewinardeer wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My fingers are crossed that whatever happens post current regime that life is markedly better for the Iranian people. I'd hate to see civil war or mass starvation. Their currency has fallen off a cliff and continues to do so.

And doesn't become another neoliberal, corrupt vassal state beholden to the IMF.

The IMF is essentially a credit union with 191 member countries, so they'd become a vassal to most of the world - if by vassal, one means to agree to terms that might make it possible to repay loans.

Some (including quite a few neoliberals) want to abolish the IMF altogether, though I'm unsure if letting countries collapse completely is really a better option.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#150

Post by EbbiURBiSharaf »

ebbi wrote: post #107
tptacek wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's an extraordinary claim.

Why do you think it's extraordinary? I know quite a lot of Iranians, and when I talked about this with them about a year ago, their lay of the land given their own opinions and their wider networks opinion is that the majority of Iranians are pro-regime change but NOT at the hands of a US/Israeli intervention. There are anti-regime segments that are pro-US/Israel intervention, but they think this is a minority and th…

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