Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

Post by Retric » Fri, Jan 09, 2026, 9:45 AM UTC

epolanski wrote: post #138

Retric wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google etc may be a US based company, but they can leverage emerging markets just fine. There’s a stronger argument to be made for small caps, but stock buybacks allow any company’s stock to effectively experience exponential growth even with flat earnings. IE there’s little long term difference between buying back 2% a stock every year and ~2% actual growth every year assuming you never hold the majority of shares.…

> Google etc may be a US based company, but they can leverage emerging markets just fine. Not sure what are you trying to say.

Post by p-e-w » Fri, Jan 09, 2026, 9:46 AM UTC

p0pularopinion wrote: post #99

p-e-w wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you can demonstrate that there is in fact an AI bubble, that is simply begging the question. Notice how the term “housing bubble” is used much less frequently today than 10 years ago? That’s because that so-called bubble has been ballooning in size for three decades now, and almost nobody still believes that it will “burst” in any meaningful sense. The Dotcom bubble was in many ways an outlier.

There are a few noticeable differences between housing as an asset and AI datacenters. Beyond the obvious difference that a house has a depreciation in the order of decades, whereas AI GPUs are a few years. Then there is the fact that housing is a fundamental human need whereas AI, as frequently demonstrated, isn‘t even a want by many people. I am not saying that AI cannot demonstrate todays value 20 years into the f…

Post by dottjt » Fri, Jan 09, 2026, 9:47 AM UTC

baxtr wrote: post #31

p0pularopinion wrote: post #16

I find the S&P500 to be interesting as a demonstration for currency risk. Denoted in US, it went up ~18% or so. For me as an EUR investor, it went up just 4.6% when accounting for the loss of the USD. Comparing that to indicies that usually do not perform that well, Euro Stoxx 50 is up ~22% and MSCI Emerging Markets ~21%.

I noticed this as well. I haven’t found a good cure for this other than diversifying globally.

Post by 13uttercup » Fri, Jan 09, 2026, 9:48 AM UTC

BrenBarn wrote: post #54

EZ-E wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a good measure of meaningful growth? Genuinely asking. I imagine all measures have pros and cons.

I said meaningful measure of economic health, not growth. :-) But I'm not sure. The book "Mismeasuring our lives" gives five recommendations for developing improved measures: 1. Look at income and consumption rather than production 2. Consider income and consumption jointly with wealth 3. Emphasize the household perspective (with this they seem to be focusing on more meaningful measurement of in-kind services and int…

Post by alex43578 » Fri, Jan 09, 2026, 9:49 AM UTC

4ggr0 wrote: post #127

Animats wrote: post #94

Protectionism is failing to revive manufacturing Yes. The rare earths situation is embarrassing. This has been a political football for years now, but the efforts to fix it aren't working very well. First, you need a mine site and a mine. The US has a big one at Mountain Pass, California, and it's producing. But in the past twenty years, it's gone bankrupt twice and has been through three owners, because there were a…

why go to the trouble of building and maintaining mines in your expensive western country if you can just take all the minerals from african mines, while also getting the profits of these mines. no worries about salaries, no one cares when workers die by the dozens, ...