There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout • Hacker News Board

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#141

Post by pamcake » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:09 PM UTC

refulgentis wrote: post #21

agumonkey wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the rest of the world is weirdly too passive, there's a smell of shock

IMHO the rest of the world isn't asleep. Denmark's prime minister said the same as you, for example. US just got roasted at UN by inter alia, France, with ~20 countries either speaking the same or asking to speak on it. That's just from 30s with front page of nytimes.com.

In EU, so far I believe only the PM of Spain had the backbone to speak properly with anything that could be considered "strongly worded", proving that it's possible.

The others have been variants of "Celebrating liberation of the Venezuelan people from the illegitimate dictator, a new dawn for democracy! (oh and everyone (not naming names) please behave and try to be mindful of international law and human rights from now on)"

Not a single word about the dead, for one.

While the NYTimes headline names France as critical, here's Macron (still only posting) on Twitter: https://xcancel.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/200752538697719404...

Meanwhile POTUS is over there talking literally and openly about how US are "going to run things" and motivating it with taking the oil and how they don't really care about democracy one way or other.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#142

Post by CGMthrowaway » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:09 PM UTC

JasonADrury wrote: post #57

bawolff wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From bgp hijacking? Almost certainly not. It would probably rule out the type of decapitation strike the US did, but bgp hijacking is way way below on the escalation ladder.

Nuclear capability wouldn't necessarily rule out this kind of a decapitation strike, it's just that it's very hard to imagine this kind of an operation actually being successful in any nuclear-capable country. The US couldn't just fly a bunch of helicopters to Pyongyang or Tehran and do the same within 30 minutes. Most likely every single one of those helicopters would end up being shot down.

Didn't we just do something like that in Iran? Not helicopters, but we still secured the airspace just the same.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#143

Post by benjiro » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:09 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #82

delichon wrote: post #28

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Nuclear deterrent is absurd. You have to assume everyone is willing to die over every single thing short of obliteration. So what's the scenario then? Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Maduro. Venezuela launches its nukes, everyone dies on both sides. Please, explain that laughable premise. Everyone in Venezuela dies for Maduro? Go on, explain it, I'll wait. Back in reality: Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Madu…

> So what's the scenario then? Venezuela has nukes. The US abducts Maduro. Venezuela launches its nukes, everyone dies on both sides.

US attacks, Maduro threatens to launch nuke(s) ... then what? Do you call bluff?

Maduro was capture in a militair base (as he did a Saddam, switching sleeping locations), he almost made it into a safe room. What if he had nukes and made it to the safe room. You know the expression "Cornered rat"... For all he knew, the US was there to kill him. The US killed his 30 Cuban bodyguards so high change Maduro thought its his end.

> "Cornered rat" refers to the idiom that even weak individuals become desperate and dangerous when given no escape, often applied to intense political or military pressure.

The scenario that you called, that nobody wants to die for Maduro, is you gambling that nobody want to die for him or not follow the chain of command! Do you want to risk it? No matter how many precaution you take, are you really sure that not one or more nukes go to Texas or Miami?

This is why Nukes are so powerful, even in the hands of weaker countries. It gives a weaker country a weapon that may inflict untold dead to the more powerful country (let alone the political impact). Its a weapon that influences decision making, even in the most powerful countries.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#144

Post by brendoelfrendo » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:09 PM UTC

manacit wrote: post #111

DiggyJohnson wrote: post #36

Was the OSRS economy affected by the strikes? I'm assuming they didn't disrupt internet access for most Venezuelan citizens but I have not looked into it yet.

Yes, it looks like it definitely was: https://x.com/eslischn/status/1104542595806609408

Unless I'm missing an update, it appears that this post is from 2019?

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#145

Post by SpecialistK » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:09 PM UTC

sroussey wrote: post #100

spacebanana7 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine wouldn’t have been invaded if they hadn’t given up their nuclear weapons.

Russia promised not to invade if Ukraine gave up the nukes.

No no no, some random American diplomat told a random Soviet diplomat during the East Germany negotiations that NATO wouldn't extend east at all.

No, it wasn't put on paper anywhere.

No, it wasn't mentioned (much) when the countries of eastern Europe all chomped at the bit to join NATO in the 90s.

No, it completely makes the Budapest Memorandum bunk.

No, the people of Ukraine absolutely do not have the agency to want to pivot towards the EU and become wealthy and stable like the former Warsaw Pact countries did. It must have been the CIA, so Budapest is bunk again!

(and other lies the war apologists tell themselves)

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#146

Post by SiempreViernes » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:11 PM UTC

moffkalast wrote: post #128

7952 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but there must always be a fear that the military and public would not want to die in a nuclear inferno to defend national sovereignty. And may tolerate a coupe instead. Which then reduces the madness and the deterrent effect. The extra step the Dprk have taken is to try and build bunkers so that the regime could survive the destruction of the country. A step further into madness that goes beyond what western c…

> the military and public would not want to die in a nuclear inferno to defend national sovereignty Erm, it's kind of demanded for people to go out and die to defend national sovereignty in nations that have a draft. For myself, I'd prefer to be vaporized than bleed out in a trench if it really comes down to it.

Realistically speaking you'll die of an infected and untreated burn wound though, the severe blast and burn area is just much much bigger than the fancy "everything just goes poof" core.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#147

Post by kulahan » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:12 PM UTC

hdgvhicv wrote: post #62

literalAardvark wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> him being able to summon his diplomatic relations into 50 countries declaring war to the USA. As if. Dictators only do things that benefit themselves, and deciding to attack the US is suicide and/or world ending.

Took a long time to catch up with Bin Laden after he attacked the US.

Let’s be realistic.

Not easy to find one man in a haystack. Guerrilla warfare has always been insanely overpowered as a defense tactic anyways, as are terrorist attacks.

The US can realistically only be challenged militarily by Europe or Asia, assuming a unified continent, and the US is on the offensive. If it’s defensive, the US might put up a good fight against the rest of the planet.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#148

Post by stackghost » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:12 PM UTC

wood_spirit wrote: post #125

roncesvalles wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The nukes are a bargaining chip (disarmament). Basically, if your country has the human and tech capital to develop a nuke, you probably should because it's free money. I don't believe that NK's nukes deter the US from doing anything. Would NK nuke Guam and risk getting carpet-bombed with nukes for endless days and nights until even the ants are dead? Artillery on Seoul doesn't matter. The US would just ask SK to eva…

The nukes have many roles perhaps but I think the fully developed weapons are for retaliatory strike. They are the North Korean leadership saying that if the US (or China or anyone really) tries to surgically decapitate them (like the US just did in Venezuela) then the nukes are used to take the attackers with them

Yes that's the orthodox doctrine of nuclear deterrent. To be truly effective you need a triad of land-based ICBMs, nuclear-armed submarines, and aircraft-based delivery systems so that your second-strike capability remains intact through any decapitation attempts.

If you don't have the triad then you need to brandish your capability more ostentatiously, like France does with its deliberate refusal to commit to a no-first-strike policy. This is (one of the many reasons) why North Korea does so much sabre-rattling: they don't have a (publicly known) nuclear triad for deterrence.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#149

Post by monocasa » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:12 PM UTC

jonplackett wrote: post #115

adventured wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? Russia invades. Ukraine launches nukes. Every major city in Ukraine is ash. Several major cities in Russia are ash. Millions die plausibly. That scenario is not what would happen from an invasion. Zelensky would not have used nukes to prompt the death of millions instantly. He would have proceeded with the same defensive war. The false premise rests on: it's better for everyone to die than live under Russian…

This isn’t how nukes would get used. They wouldn’t just fire them at cities to start with. It would most likely be something tactical, but perhaps end up escalating to insanity anyway

You don't leave room to escalate beyond use if nukes anymore. Russia's response to a tactical nuke would be to turn Ukraine into glass. All leaving additional escalation on the table does is make sure that you don't make good on your word to make everyone lose too.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#150

Post by SchemaLoad » Mon, Jan 05, 2026, 11:12 PM UTC

johnisgood wrote: post #135

narmiouh wrote: post #116

I guess one of the interesting things I learnt off this article(1) was that 7% of DNS query types served by 1.1.1.1 are HTTPS and started wondering what HTTPS query type was as I had only heard of A, MX, AAAA, SPF etc... Apparently that is part of implementing ECH (Encrypted Client Hello) in TLS 1.3 where the DNS hosts the public key of the server to fully encrypt the server name in a HTTPS request. Since Nginx and o…

Wait, so you do not leak the host through DNS with this? I have not checked it out yet.

Encrypted DNS has existed for quite a while now through DNS over HTTPS, the missing link was that to connect to a website, you first had to send the server the hostname in plaintext to get the right public key for the site. So someone listening on the wire could not see your DNS requests but would effectively still get the site you connected to anyway.

The new development (encrypted client hello) is you no longer have to send the hostname. So someone listening in the middle would only see you connected to an AWS/etc IP. This will make blocking websites very difficult if they use shared services like cloudflare or cloud VPS hosting.