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Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

antirez.com

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Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#141

Post by santadays »

etra0 wrote: post #127

LLMs have certainly become extremely useful for Software Engineers, they're very convincing (and pleasers, too) and I'm still unsure about the future of our day-to-day job. But one thing that has scared me the most, is the trust of LLMs output to the general society. I believe that for software engineers it's really easy to see if it's being useful or not -- We can just run the code and see if the output is what we e…

I get this take, but given the state of the world (the US anyways), I find it hard to trust anyone with any kind of profit motive. I feel like any information can’t be taken as fact, it can just be rolled into your world view and discarded if useful or not. If you need to make a decision that can’t be backed out of that has real world consequences I think/hope most people are learning to do as much due diligence as reasonable. Llms seem at this moment to be trying to give reliable information. When they’ve been fine tuned to avoid certain topics it’s obvious. This could change but I suspect it will be hard to find tune them too far in a direction without losing capability.

That said, it definitely feels as though keeping a coherent picture of what is actually happening is getting harder, which is scary.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#142

Post by bgwalter »

They are very advanced stochastic parrots that allow AI invested authors to suddenly write in perfect English.

If Antirez has never gotten an LLM to perform an absolutely embarrassing mistake, he must be very lucky or we should stop listening to him.

Programmers' resistance has not weakened. Since the ORCL drop of 40% anti-LLM opinions are censored and downvoted here. Many people have given up, and we always get articles from the same LLM influencers.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#143

Post by twoodfin »

santadays wrote: post #141
etra0 wrote: post #127

LLMs have certainly become extremely useful for Software Engineers, they're very convincing (and pleasers, too) and I'm still unsure about the future of our day-to-day job. But one thing that has scared me the most, is the trust of LLMs output to the general society. I believe that for software engineers it's really easy to see if it's being useful or not -- We can just run the code and see if the output is what we e…

I get this take, but given the state of the world (the US anyways), I find it hard to trust anyone with any kind of profit motive. I feel like any information can’t be taken as fact, it can just be rolled into your world view and discarded if useful or not. If you need to make a decision that can’t be backed out of that has real world consequences I think/hope most people are learning to do as much due diligence as r…

I feel like any information can’t be taken as fact, it can just be rolled into your world view and discarded if useful or not.

The concern, I think, is that for many that “discard function” is not, “Is this information useful?”. Instead: “Does this information reinforce my existing world view?”

That feedback loop and where it leads is potentially catastrophic at societal scale.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#144

Post by emp17344 »

mjr00 wrote: post #135
Aurornis wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, that doesn’t make you a skeptic in this context. The LLM skeptics claim LLM usefulness is an illusion. That the LLMs are a fad, and they produced more problems than they solve. They cite cherry picked announcements showing that LLM usage makes development slower or worse. They opened ChatGPT a couple times a few months ago, asked some questions, and then went “Aha! I knew it was bad!” when they encountered their…

> No, that doesn’t make you a skeptic in this context. That's good to hear, but I have been called an AI skeptic a lot on hn, so not everyone agrees with you! I agree though, there's a certain class of "AI denialism" which pretends that LLMs don't do anything useful, which in almost-2026 is pretty hard to argue.

On the other hand, ever since LLMs came on the scene, there’s been a vocal group claiming that AI will become intelligent and rapidly bring about human extinction - think the r/singularity crowd. This seems just as untenable a position to hold at this point. It’s becoming clear that these things are simply tools. Useful in many cases, but that’s it.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#146

Post by emp17344 »

zahlman wrote: post #136
nl wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is some limited truth in this but we still see claims that LLMs are "just next token predictors" and "just regurgitate code they read online". These are just uninformed and wrong views. It's fair to say that these people were (are!) wrong.

Objecting to these claims is missing their point. Saying these things is really about denying that the LLMs "think" in any meaningful sense. (And the retorts I've seen in those discussions often imply very depressing and self-deprecating views of what it actually means to be human.)

Leave it to HN to be militantly misanthropic to sell chatbots.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#147

Post by bartread »

bartread wrote: post #79
_rpxpx wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, maybe. But how many programmers will know this in 10 years' time as use of LLMs is normalized? I like to hear what employers are saying already about recent graduates.

They’d have to be hiring recent graduates for you to hear that perspective. And, as much as what I’ve just said is hyperbolically pessimistic, there is some truth to it. In the UK a bunch of factors have coincided to put the brakes on hiring, especially smaller and mid-size businesses. AI is the obvious one that gets all the press (although how much it’s really to blame is open to question in my view), but the recent…

*Employer NI contribution, not employer AI contribution - a pox be upon autocorrect

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#148

Post by zahlman »

Aurornis wrote: post #120
bachmeier wrote: post #99

> Programmers resistance to AI assisted programming has lowered considerably. Even if LLMs make mistakes, the ability of LLMs to deliver useful code and hints improved to the point most skeptics started to use LLMs anyway: now the return on the investment is acceptable for many more folks. I'm not a fan of this phrasing. Use of the terms "resistance" and "skeptics" implies they were wrong. It's important we don't eng…

> The change occurred because LLMs are useful for programming in 2025 But the skeptics and anti-AI commenters are almost as active as ever, even as we enter 2026. The debate about the usefulness of LLMs has grown into almost another culture war topic. I still see a constant stream of anti-AI comments on HN and every other social platform from people who believe the tools are useless, the output is always unusable, pe…

It absolutely is culture war. I can easily imagine a less critical version of myself having ended up in that camp. It comes across to me that the perspective is informed by core values and principles surrounding what "intelligence" is.

I butted heads with many earlier on, and they did nothing to challenge that frame meaningfully. What did change is my perception of the set of tasks that don't require "intelligence". And the intuition pump for that is pretty easy to start — I didn't suppose that Deep Blue heralded a dawn of true "AI", either, but chess (and now Go) programs have only gotten even more embarrassingly stronger. Even if researchers and puzzle enthusiasts might still find positions that are easier for a human to grok than a computer.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#149

Post by geraneum »

antirez wrote: post #140
pton_xd wrote: post #133

> For years, despite functional evidence and scientific hints accumulating, certain AI researchers continued to claim LLMs were stochastic parrots: probabilistic machines that would: 1. NOT have any representation about the meaning of the prompt. 2. NOT have any representation about what they were going to say. In 2025 finally almost everybody stopped saying so. It's interesting that Terrence Tao just released his ow…

What happened recently is that all the serious AI researches that were in the stochastic parrot side changed point of view but, incredibly, people without a deep understanding on such matters, previously exposed to such arguments, are lagging behind and still repeat arguments that the people who popularized them would not repeat again. Today there is no top AI scientist that will tell you LLMs are just stochastic par…

Now that you’re here, what do you mean by “scientific hints” in your first paragraph?

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#150

Post by somewhereoutth »

Aurornis wrote: post #126
mjr00 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Skeptics" is also a loaded term; what does it actually mean? I find LLMs incredibly useful for various programming tasks (generating code, searching documentation, and yes with enough setup agents can accomplish some tasks), but I also don't believe they have actual intelligence, nor do I think they will eviscerate programming jobs, the same way that Python and JavaScript didn't eviscerate programming jobs despite l…

No, that doesn’t make you a skeptic in this context. The LLM skeptics claim LLM usefulness is an illusion. That the LLMs are a fad, and they produced more problems than they solve. They cite cherry picked announcements showing that LLM usage makes development slower or worse. They opened ChatGPT a couple times a few months ago, asked some questions, and then went “Aha! I knew it was bad!” when they encountered their…

Not just their usefulness, but LLMs themselves are worse than an illusion, they are illusions that people often believe in unquestioningly - perhaps are being forced to believe in unquestionably (because of mandates, or short term time pressures as kind of race to the bottom).

When the ROI in training the next model is realised to be zero or even negative, then yes the money will run out. Existing models will soldier on for a while as (bankrupt) operators attempt to squeeze out the last few cents/pennies, but they will become more and more out of date, and so the 'age of LLMs' will draw to a close.

I confess my skeptic-addled brain initially (in hope?) misread the title of the post as 'Reflections on the end of LLMs in 2025'. Maybe we'll get that for 2026!

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