Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#141

Post by thinkcontext » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 9:55 PM UTC

luqtas wrote: post #46

mullingitover wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's already cheaper to demolish an existing coal plant that's already paid for and replace it with solar + battery. Solar and battery brand new buildout, plus their maintenance overhead, dominates coal even when you only count coal's maintenance cost. People have it in their heads that this is some bleeding heart, don't ruin the planet thing, but it's plain economics. Non-renewable energy is simply inferior, and wil…

> Non-renewable energy is simply inferior, and will only become more so. you simply can't say this. despite the lobby against it, solar and wind energy have lifespans of around 20 years and afterwards, it's a freaking mess to deal with recycling and often times, garbage we don't know what to do. not even counting the amount of NASTY chemicals going into the production of solar panels. these are sometimes permanent an…

Its fair to do an accounting of externalities. However, I generally find those raising externality issues with solar and wind wildly overestimate their impact and wildly underestimate the externalities of fossil fuels. You mention the 20 year lifespan, this is a huge benefit compared to fossil fuels. The externalities of oil and gas add up for every second they are used.

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#142

Post by ak217 » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 9:55 PM UTC

antonvs wrote: post #130

ak217 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is governed by the CCP, which holds the world record for the number of people murdered by the state, feeds its citizens militaristic propaganda at scale, is currently controlled by a guy who fancies himself a dictator, and is politically stable only as long as it continues to suppress free speech and free trade. It takes a dangerous kind of willful naivete to just ignore that fact.

What kind of willful naïveté does it take to ignore the nature of the current government of the United States?

Yours?

I'm sick and tired of whataboutism from people who are somehow motivated to carry water for aggressive dictatorships that threaten the rest of us. I've already lost my birth country to zombies like that (they call them z-patriots, or turbopatriots, the supporters of Russia's invasion of Ukraine). In case you missed it, my original comment was intended as a criticism of the current government of the United States.

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#143

Post by dalyons » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 9:55 PM UTC

luqtas wrote: post #46

mullingitover wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's already cheaper to demolish an existing coal plant that's already paid for and replace it with solar + battery. Solar and battery brand new buildout, plus their maintenance overhead, dominates coal even when you only count coal's maintenance cost. People have it in their heads that this is some bleeding heart, don't ruin the planet thing, but it's plain economics. Non-renewable energy is simply inferior, and wil…

> Non-renewable energy is simply inferior, and will only become more so. you simply can't say this. despite the lobby against it, solar and wind energy have lifespans of around 20 years and afterwards, it's a freaking mess to deal with recycling and often times, garbage we don't know what to do. not even counting the amount of NASTY chemicals going into the production of solar panels. these are sometimes permanent an…

Who cares if we never figure out how to recycle them? bury them in a landfill, and we’ll still be so far ahead on the pollution front than any other alternative. This is such a non issue

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#144

Post by lossolo » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 10:04 PM UTC

ak217 wrote: post #120

antonvs wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Alas is right, China is poised to dominate … Are you saying “alas for citizens of the US who see things in competitive nationalist terms”? Seems like a win for everyone else, no? What happened to “competition”, or is that something that’s only supposed to be beneficial within the US?

China is governed by the CCP, which holds the world record for the number of people murdered by the state, feeds its citizens militaristic propaganda at scale, is currently controlled by a guy who fancies himself a dictator, and is politically stable only as long as it continues to suppress free speech and free trade. It takes a dangerous kind of willful naivete to just ignore that fact.

This is oversimplified view of the world and China.

China being powerful is not something new, it was the world's largest economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries (with exceptions being parts of the 19th and 20th centuries, when Western Europe and then the US surged ahead after the industrial revolution).

> is politically stable only as long as it continues to suppress free speech and free trade.

Your analysis is through the lens of Western culture. The definition and understanding of freedom and harmony are entirely different in China. I was in China and experienced this myself, so this is firsthand experience, not something I picked up from blogs or news.

In the Chinese context, freedom is defined collectively so freedom from chaos, poverty, foreign domination etc, whereas here in the West it's individual liberty. Harmony and social stability are seen as more valuable than political pluralism, so authoritarian governance is culturally framed as legitimate. You know that 100 million Chinese travel abroad every year and all of them come back to China? Chinese leaders and citizens still remember periods of fragmentation and civil war.

There is a widespread belief that adopting a Western adversarial political model could reintroduce instability and weaken national unity so something China cannot risk given its size and diversity (you know how many ethnicities there are in China?)

This is their natural state. China has a long history of centralized, bureaucratic governance (over 2k years since the Qin Dynasty), where stability and order are prioritized.

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#145

Post by ak217 » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 10:13 PM UTC

lossolo wrote: post #144

ak217 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is governed by the CCP, which holds the world record for the number of people murdered by the state, feeds its citizens militaristic propaganda at scale, is currently controlled by a guy who fancies himself a dictator, and is politically stable only as long as it continues to suppress free speech and free trade. It takes a dangerous kind of willful naivete to just ignore that fact.

This is oversimplified view of the world and China. China being powerful is not something new, it was the world's largest economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries (with exceptions being parts of the 19th and 20th centuries, when Western Europe and then the US surged ahead after the industrial revolution). > is politically stable only as long as it continues to suppress free speech and free trade. Your analysis is thro…

Yeah. I have also been to China myself, and have first hand experience walking around Hong Kong with people who later found themselves in jail, or riding the subway getting bombarded with saturation level jingoistic propaganda urging attack against the capitalist aggressors, or getting a tour of Beijing from a friend who worked as a photojournalist and found himself followed by the security services and had to leave and seek asylum with his family.

The silent majority is silent, yes. Those who try to do something get pushed out, or worse. It's the double-edged sword of immigration. But the Chinese people love freedom like the rest of us - you don't need to go far to disprove your entire narrative, Taiwan and Singapore are right there.

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#146

Post by Youden » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 10:15 PM UTC

gpm wrote: post #73

buckle8017 wrote: post #50

Ok now shift summer sun into winter.

Just build more solar. You generate excess electricity in summer and enough in winter. This isn't a problem.

I live in Switzerland and my house currently consumes 35-40kWh of electricity each day. I'm in the process of installing as many panels as possible on my roof and right now in winter, they're forecasted to produce ~18kWh on a good day.

While it'll be possible for me to be more than fully self-sufficient in summer, I'd need roughly 3x more panels to come close to having a chance in winter, plus far more battery storage than is reasonable.

I suspect it might be more doable somewhere with milder winters, like Italy but especially as you go further north and the days get shorter, there's just no chance.

For it to work in places with large seasonal differences, we need something else (e.g. nuclear) and/or storage.

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#147

Post by laurencerowe » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 10:19 PM UTC

jmward01 wrote: post #71

Batteries are probably going to kill long-range transmission lines and open up remote generation at a scale never thought possible. Desert solar, remote hydro, etc etc. As the price continues to fall and the density continues to rise the economics of transmission completely change and will decouple the location of power generation from the use of that power dramatically. This decoupling of location and use will drast…

I don't think this makes sense. Rail freight is about 20x more expensive than transmission at current battery densities.

Transmission: $41.50 per MWh per 1,000 miles. https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81662.pdf

Rail freight: $160 / ton per 1,000 miles. At 220 Wh/kg a ton of batteries is 200kWh. So rail costs $800 per MWh per 1,000 miles without considering the cost of the batteries themselves.

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#148

Post by ponector » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 10:19 PM UTC

nutjob2 wrote: post #132

apexalpha wrote: post #105

It’s somewhat humbling that this is essentially entirely done by one country. For all their faults, I am in awe of the scale and success of their industrial policy.

It's amazing what you can achieve when you control everything in a nation and can execute anyone who disagrees.

If it was a real reason of their success we would see amazing results in russia and their friends: Iran, Korea and other countries.

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#149

Post by JumpCrisscross » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 10:27 PM UTC

dalyons wrote: post #131

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you saying “alas for citizens of the US who see things in competitive nationalist terms”? He’s saying it as a realist. China is building the equivalent to America’s sanctions power in their battery dominance. In an electrified economy, shutting off battery and rare earths access isn’t as acutely calamitous as an oil embargo, but it’s similarly shocking as sanctions and tariffs.

Yes and no - yes it’s dumb to give up and let china have a defacto monopoly on the future of energy production. But no insofar as sanctions on battery and solar don’t hit the same as oil and other things. Because once you have them, they keep producing for you.

> sanctions on battery and solar don’t hit the same as oil and other things

Oil hits hardest. I’m comparing financial sanctions to a battery embargo. Both are slow. Both are powerful.

Re: Analysis finds anytime electricity from solar available as battery costs plummet

#150

Post by jmward01 » Sat, Dec 13, 2025, 10:30 PM UTC

gpm wrote: post #83

jmward01 wrote: post #71

Batteries are probably going to kill long-range transmission lines and open up remote generation at a scale never thought possible. Desert solar, remote hydro, etc etc. As the price continues to fall and the density continues to rise the economics of transmission completely change and will decouple the location of power generation from the use of that power dramatically. This decoupling of location and use will drast…

I think long range transmission remains a thing anywhere having a local grid remains a thing (which will be most places for other reasons). Load-balancing the area having a cloudy few days and the area having a sunny days and the area having a windy few days and so on will remain extremely valuable. It lets you install a lot less batteries and isn't that much infrastructure given that the last mile problems are dealt…

I think there is a calculation that makes the point a little clearer. There is some distance, x, where it is cheaper to transport the electrons mechanically than it is to push them over a wire. Every month that distance gets shorter as battery prices drop. This gets even more advantageous for batteries when you start talking about variable use and generation since it is easier to change the destination or source of a battery container than it is to change the destination or source of transmission lines. My main point is that that distance x is going to rapidly get towards just a few miles away from point of use very shortly. Imagine a small city getting a local electricity provider. I actually think the way it is likely to go is that energy consumers (cities, factories, etc) will start installing backup power via battery shipment and then slowly start disconnecting from the larger grid as the cost of the battery container delivered power dips below the cost for transmission line delivered. The infrastructure is just so much more efficient for most use cases because we already have that infrastructure for shipping other goods.