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Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

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Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#141

Post by biophysboy »

gaborcselle wrote: post #114

One thing I don’t get: the study excludes the first 6 months after vaccination to avoid immortal-time bias. But if people died right away due to the vaccine (hypothetically), wouldn’t this design exclude those deaths?

>As unvaccinated individuals were alive between their random index date and November 1, 2021, corresponding to a maximum duration of 6 months, starting follow-up from the index date would have introduced immortal time bias. Therefore, we initiated the study of long-term mortality 6 months after the index date, while mortality within 6 months after vaccination was analyzed separately using SCCS models. While the SCCS models are well-suited for short-term vaccine safety studies, they are less appropriate for long-term mortality, particularly due to limited control periods among vaccinated individuals, and age differences within the same individual across risk or control periods, as age is by far a major risk factor for death. For both analyses, we introduced the calendar period as an adjusting factor to account for the infection dynamics, baseline mortality trends, and the varying propension to get vaccinated.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#142

Post by ucoclddau »

> Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccinated individuals consistently had a lower risk of death, regardless of the cause

This sounds like a red flag to me if you're trying to isolate the COVID vaccine as something safe. Table 2 data showed less drownings, less car crashes, less falls, less deaths related to chromosomal abnormalities... How can there not be a confounding variable or two here?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#144

Post by somenameforme »

ericmay wrote: post #16
infamouscow wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Yes, but it would depend on the results. The problem is that most people are bad at risk assessment. If COVID-19 vaccine increased their risk of premature death by .0000001% they point to that and say sure not taking my risk! Despite the fact that they'd be at much more risk of dying by getting the disease, or just hopping in their car and driving down the street to get a loaf of bread of whatever. If you showed say,…

The thing is people 'on the other side' think exactly the same, but come to different conclusions. For instance what do you think the chances of a healthy 20 year old male with 0 comorbidities of dying from COVID are? And what do you think his chances of suffering a significant case of myocarditis or pericarditis from the vaccine is? By "significant" I mean a case that's significant enough to result in active diagnosis - in other words somebody being diagnosed after a visit to an emergency room, as opposed to passive diagnosis where you assess each vaccinated individual to find cases that would otherwise go undetected.

Obviously I'm not comparing apples to apples (side effects from vaccine vs death from COVID) but this again is as explained by your own logic. If we were having a smallpox outbreak (with some strains having upward of 30% mortality rates across all demographics), I'm not going to be concerned about side effects of vaccines short of death. But with the rather low risk profile of people in favorable health/age demographics, the side effects of vaccination become quite relevant. Another issue is that early on it became quite apparent that the vaccines were not stopping people from getting COVID, so it's not like you can really compare vaccine vs covid effects, because the reality is you're probably still going to get COVID (and repeatedly, as it turned out) regardless of vaccination status.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#145

Post by attila-lendvai »

gwerbret wrote: post #43
sa-code wrote: post #4

> no increased risk of all-cause mortality > study including 22.7 million vaccinated individuals and 5.9 million unvaccinated individuals These are the important bits for the non medical folks

> These are the important bits for the non medical folks Also significantly: "vaccinated individuals consistently had a lower risk of death, regardless of the cause."

that in itself could be healthy user bias (if a healthier subset was taking up the vaccine).

did they control for that?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#146

Post by ceejayoz »

hervature wrote: post #103
ceejayoz wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read again. > After standardizing the characteristics of vaccinated individuals to those of unvaccinated individuals, we observed a 25% lower standardized incidence of all-cause death in vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated ones… > Vaccinated individuals had a lower risk of death compared with unvaccinated individuals regardless of the cause of death. > All-cause mortality was lower within 6 months follo…

You should read my statement again. If COVID vaccines reduces COVID deaths by 100% and increase everything else by 0.01%, you will still have a reduction in "all-cause" mortality yet your chances of dying by anything else has increased. I already said Table 2 does not show this is happening and in fact vaccinated individuals have better outcomes across the board. However, people are drawing this conclusion (even thou…

> If COVID vaccines reduces COVID deaths by 100% and increase everything else by 0.01%…

But you already agreed this is not the case, in your comment:

> If you look at Table 2, you can see that the vaccinated group is less mortality in all diseases.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#148

Post by jobs_throwaway »

blub wrote: post #80
dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

“Doesn’t kill you” is the absolute bare minimum and a very low bar. Because the vaccines were so rushed, it’s still reassuring, but not at all a testament to the safety of mRNA vaccines. The more interesting studies will be about non-lethal adverse reactions. Changes to menstruation, heart problems, lymph node swelling to name just a few.

>lymph node swelling

you mean immune response? Which vaccines are supposed to induce?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#149

Post by biophysboy »

attila-lendvai wrote: post #145
gwerbret wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These are the important bits for the non medical folks Also significantly: "vaccinated individuals consistently had a lower risk of death, regardless of the cause."

that in itself could be healthy user bias (if a healthier subset was taking up the vaccine). did they control for that?

Its a cohort study, so you can only control for confounders. The 2nd paragraph of the discussion addresses the healthy-vaccinee effect you're referring to.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#150

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

It’s sad that these days anytime health studies or recommendations come out I half to make sure it’s not from an official US government source.

But to be honest even before the current shit show I was taking recommendations from foreign health departments when it came to COVID.

I got a booster shot after getting the J and J vaccine before it was officially recommended by the CDC because I saw other countries’ health departments publishing data about it. I can’t remember whether it was Isreal, the UK or the EU.

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