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This is concerning for sure. Looks like we may be getting the trigger for a sell off soon.
Should we all buy stock in Nvidia now? It’s not like Peter Thiel is Warren Buffet or anything. And Warren Buffett is buying Alphabet.
Warren Buffett is buying Alphabet out of neceessity - he already sold most of what he could sell and has way too much cash on hand - he just need to buy 'something' - Alphabet seems like the least overvalued big stock out there.
First it was Softbank and now its Thiel. Major sales coming from two of the ultimate tech insiders is probably a very good sell signal. Whether or not its the top is another question. Markets as we know can go higher longer than we think, Michael Burry shut down his hedge fund because he may have started shorting too soon. One of the funds that Meta were working with to finance their spending on AI, Blue Owl, had to…
didn't softbank sell only to invest more into other ai investments?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
And Nvidia has a target on its back right now. It's priced like it's the only game in town, but AMD, Google, Meta and Intel have varying degrees of competing chips for AI use.
> Meta and Intel ?
They don't sell it, but they could if Nvidia started charging too much, and some of these are going into Meta datacenters instead of Nvidia.
Intel makes the Arc. It's probably the least viable competitor in that list, but the fundamentals are there, so some about of focus and investment could result in a viable competitor.
I’ve never seen so much cope in a single HN thread. Suddenly no one cares about Occam’s Razor
First it was Softbank and now its Thiel. Major sales coming from two of the ultimate tech insiders is probably a very good sell signal. Whether or not its the top is another question. Markets as we know can go higher longer than we think, Michael Burry shut down his hedge fund because he may have started shorting too soon. One of the funds that Meta were working with to finance their spending on AI, Blue Owl, had to…
didn't softbank sell only to invest more into other ai investments?
He's demonstrated the former 16B times, now he's demonstrating the latter.
The big downside risk I see for Nvidia is a garage startup inventing a more efficient AI algo.... that only needs 20W to run.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That sort of crash is what central banks exist to protect against. That could be something like the Fed stepping in as a buyer of last resort and picking up several trillion dollars of equity, and/or pushing rates to zero again to incentivize private capital to more or less do the same. A global crash of financial systems is unlikely because it’s cause too much pain for everyone. It unfortunately means we plebs are l…
I rather suspect that in the current economic climate, a trillion dollar bailout of Big Tech would very quickly translate to riots in the streets.
It's a shame that no more bankers went to jail after 2008, although I find the situation was much more complicated than here.
++ Microsoft
This sounds a lot like what SoftBank did : sold Nvidia, then invested (will invest?) in OpenAI. I guess the AI market's hit a point where hardware demand is pretty stable, and software demand is where all the juice is now?
I think people like Peter Thiel has the insider view of the whole sector, so I would not discount this just because I don’t align with him on political stuffs. But again we never know his real positions.
I agree that it's very difficult to fully understand what his real positions are, and interestingly I think he clearly wants that to be the case. Peter Thiel is interested in and has actually written extensively about Straussianism which is an intellectual movement obsessed with analyzing esoteric meanings in philosophical literature.
- Is deeply unscientific, coming across as a highfalutin paranoid QAnon; and
- Has zero self-awareness
That said, he has plenty of money and connections, so moves like these are likely well justified.