141–150 of 192 posts
For me the question is who is going to subscribe who hasnt already. And that is before we consider the next gen hardware that can run this stuff locally. But from what I see of the economy around me here, people just dont have the spare funds for LLM luxuries. It feels like 15+ years of wage deflation, and company streamlining, has removed what little spare spending power people had here. Not forgetting the inflation…
Seems obvious. AI is useful. But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be.
Why is that obvious? Even with effectively complete stagnation and just existing technology + limited RLVR, I can see how this could be trillion-dollars level useful.
From the actual report[1] >>> Despite persistent material uncertainty around the global macroeconomic outlook, risky asset valuations have increased and credit spreads have compressed. Measures of risk premia across many risky asset classes have tightened further since the last FPC meeting in June 2025. On a number of measures, equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused o…
"You don't necessarily have to care about AI or the future of OpenAI or the future of Nvidia even, to care about this story because this has reached into so many other markets. The financial markets, equity markets, debt markets, real estate markets, because data centers are real places that need to be built. Also your energy bills might be higher if you live next to a data center., So this extends far beyond now at this point, the AI sector."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-08/the-circu...
"A wave of deals and partnerships are escalating concerns that the trillion-dollar AI boom is being propped up by interconnected business transactions."
"Never before has so much money been spent so rapidly on a technology that, for all its potential, remains largely unproven as an avenue for profit-making."
"The recent wave of deals and partnerships involving the two are escalating concerns that an increasingly complex and interconnected web of business transactions is artificially propping up the trillion-dollar AI boom. At stake is virtually every corner of the economy, with the hype and buildout of AI infrastructure rippling across markets, from debt and equity to real estate and energy."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-10-07/openai-s-...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is that obvious? Even with effectively complete stagnation and just existing technology + limited RLVR, I can see how this could be trillion-dollars level useful.
It is the financial risk that is obvious. The big players are struggling to show meaningful revenue from the investment. Because the investment is so high, the revenue numbers need to be equally high, and growing fast. The 'correction' is when (ok, if) the markets realise that the returns aren't there. The worldwide risk is that AI-led growth has been a large chunk of the US stock market growth. If it 'corrects' US g…
ChatGPT's $10b per year is not insignificant tho.
Seems obvious. AI is useful. But it's not trillion-dollars useful, and it probably won't be.
Why is that obvious? Even with effectively complete stagnation and just existing technology + limited RLVR, I can see how this could be trillion-dollars level useful.
The promise of this future demand is what is driving the inflation of the stock market, with investors happy to ignore the deep losses accruing to every AI software player...for now. Pulling the plug on the capacity-building deals is effectively an admission that demand was overestimated, and the market will tank accordingly.
It says it all about current market mania that Nvidia (who sells most of the future chip capacity) is valued at $4 trillion, more than every publicly traded pharmaceutical company (who have decades of predictable future cash flows) combined.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is that obvious? Even with effectively complete stagnation and just existing technology + limited RLVR, I can see how this could be trillion-dollars level useful.
Because it primarily replaces existing value rather creating new value worth $1T.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I used to believe in AGI but the more AI has advanced the more I’ve come to realize that there’s no magic level of intelligence that can cure cancer and figure out warp drives. You need data, which requires experimentation, which requires labor and resources of which there is a finite supply. If you had AGI tomorrow and asked it to cure cancer, it would just ask for more experimental data and resources. Isn’t that wh…
Eliezer’s short story “That Alien Message” providing a convincing argument that humans are cognitively limited, not data-limited, through the device of a fictional world where people think faster: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5wMcKNAwB6X4mp9og/that-alien... > Yes. There is. The theoretical limit is that every time you see 1 additional bit, it cannot be expected to eliminate more than half of the remaining hypothes…
Wow position 140 on HN after about about 3 hours. Brutal lol
For me the question is who is going to subscribe who hasnt already. And that is before we consider the next gen hardware that can run this stuff locally. But from what I see of the economy around me here, people just dont have the spare funds for LLM luxuries. It feels like 15+ years of wage deflation, and company streamlining, has removed what little spare spending power people had here. Not forgetting the inflation…
I think there will be an increase in subscribers as people get more used to them. But there's probably also people like me who just dropped 2k on a new system to self host my own to customise the pipeline, and integrate it into my house without sending data offsite.
Wow position 140 on HN after about about 3 hours. Brutal lol