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Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

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Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#141

Post by piskov »

scotty79 wrote: post #139
piskov wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s in the realm of probability but very thin for me. As always: the means, the benefits. How would Russia benefit? > EU leaders meeting in Copenhagen backed plans to strengthen European defenses, including a proposed "drone wall," after recent drone incursions over Denmark raised fears of Russian hybrid attacks. Officials said the initiative would focus on eastern airspace protection and sit alongside projects for…

> As always: the means, the benefits. How would Russia benefit? Ah, they can't be behind it because they never, ever make mistakes and everything they ever do serves them somehow. In the meantime, in real world russia hasn't made a single good decision in almost 4 years. > Ah, those sweet-sweet frozen assets. Also see how this piece implies Russian without any proof. When you talk about mountain climbing you also sil…

Before you told me that drones were sent intentionally. Now you recede to “mistake” and “not a single good decision”.

If you imply some country is stupid and every thing they do is a mistake, that — at very least — is grave mistake for any war.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#142

Post by js8 »

af78 wrote: post #125
js8 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NATO has not expanded into Russia. Russia has expanded into Ukraine. Morally you're correct, but on a practical level, Russia didn't want the NATO to be in Ukraine. Morality (or international law) doesn't always win - look at the Cuban missile crisis. > People join NATO in self-defence against Russia. Yes, the motivation of the joining countries is clear. What is less clear (and you should question), why they shoul…

Ukraine was left out of NATO. When Russia first invaded in 2014, European leaders looked the other way. Claims that there plans for Ukraine to join NATO and that Russia felt threatened and was forced to attack are just lies to attempt to justify this war. At the time fictions like "Russian-backed separatists" were made up to deny the reality: that it was a foreign invasion. Yet all the signs were there: for example,…

Look it up, in 2007 G.W.Bush invited Ukraine and Georgia to NATO. Also look up PNAC. Unfortunately, there was little interest from the U.S. side to end the cold war - they had to be a "world policeman".

Yes EU leaders called for deescalation, that is true. But the U.S., the most important NATO member, did not. There is a 2018 report from RAND that suggests Ukraine should be used as a tool to weaken Russia.

The Ukraine conflict, although there is a contribution from other causes (russian and ukrainian nationalism), is a proxy war between U.S. and Russia, a continuation of the cold war.

I don't disagree with you on Russia, but the US and EU (currently) is unfortunately not interested in deescalating.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#143

Post by fastball »

whiplash451 wrote: post #88
fastball wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feels kinda like you're removing Europe's agency here. "Red tape" is just another way of saying "terrible policy decisions for decades". If they dug themselves into a hole before, what's to stop them from doing it again when after you help them fill in the hole a little bit?

Because it takes decades to stop digging a hole you've taken decades to dig. It's not like we can make dozens of nuclear power plants appear out of thin air.

Indeed. My point is rather that Europe has given no indication of changing tack. As such it seems premature to try to help them out of the hole.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#144

Post by fastball »

1718627440 wrote: post #85
fastball wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feels kinda like you're removing Europe's agency here. "Red tape" is just another way of saying "terrible policy decisions for decades". If they dug themselves into a hole before, what's to stop them from doing it again when after you help them fill in the hole a little bit?

Western and Central Europe has been dependent of Eastern Europe for centuries. This doesn't change just when a dictator owns these lands.

France made great strides towards energy independence until they started to walk back nuclear.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#145

Post by _DeadFred_ »

general1465 wrote: post #122
js8 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine I think this view is delusional. NATO countries are supplying Ukraine with weapons, it's pretty conventional to consider this as being a party to the war. The only reason we don't say it openly is that elites want to maintain pretense that we are not in a war (that's unpopular in Europe and US) and that NATO is defense-only organization.

So USA was fighting USSR by supplying weapons to Afghanistan? USSR was fighting USA by supplying weapons to Korea and Vietnam?

Wasn't Russia paying a bounty for American soldiers in Afghanistan? That seems more like 'at war with' than providing arms.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#147

Post by klipklop »

CamelCaseName wrote: post #22
blargthorwars wrote: post #8

Europe is buying billions of Russian gas and petrochemicals. https://energyandcleanair.org/financing-putins-war/ The first step when finding yourself in a hole is to stop digging.

Except they can't. Europe is struggling with soaring energy costs and a lack of alternatives. Whether it's red tape or unfortunate geography, Europe cannot afford to turn off the Russian gas tap. A benevolent US would see this and find ways to bridge the gap for Europe and lower its energy costs, further choking Russia. A less benevolent US would see this and encourage it to continue, weakening both parties and sowin…

I am not backing Trump here at all, but in his first term he pointed out how over reliant Europe is for Russian energy. A few Euro leaders practically laughed in his face (publicly, on TV) and told him with smirks on their face that he was mistaken. They attempted to frame him as a crazy person for even suggesting it's a problem. A man like Trump does not strike me as somebody that will forget and forgive that. I would not expect a benevolent US after. Why would anybody help Europe after their refusal to even admit the problem?

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#148

Post by tim333 »

fraboniface wrote: post #11

How do you (especially Europeans) understand this move from Russia? Can it really sustain a war against us? Does it want to break NATO by proving the US won't move?

I think they are like the mafia in many ways and like to threaten people and leave horses heads in beds and the like. It's a way to try to intimidate others not to mess with them. I'm not sure it's going to work in this case.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#149

Post by js8 »

AndrewDucker wrote: post #140
js8 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's precisely this mindset, "us vs them", that neutral states cannot exist, which is at the heart of current escalation.

Nobody is forcing anyone to join the "Resist the violent bully in your doorstep" club. It just seems to happen naturally when the violent bully starts attacking their neighbours.

> Nobody is forcing anyone to join the "Resist the violent bully in your doorstep" club.

That kind of club might be fine, but NATO simply isn't it. Again, you're not asking the question, what is in it for the U.S. (to promise protection - with nukes - to those countries).

Look at my country - Czechia. After the end of Cold war, in the context of NATO, we have done more for American security than America did for ours. We had soldiers in Afghanistan and 11 of them died. During the same period, no American soldier has died defending Czech Republic.

> It just seems to happen naturally when the violent bully starts attacking their neighbours.

NATO continued expanding after the end of Cold war, without Russia attacking anyone. I think it was a mistake - EU should have created its own defense, and start from a clean slate.

Anyway, I don't care much about the question of historic guilt. I commented here because I think western "leaders" should be honest about their goals vis-a-vis Russia and Ukraine, and they aren't.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#150

Post by tim333 »

ajross wrote: post #121
tim333 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Negotiated peace can be a thing if there is enough of a threat behind it. I imagine Putin would like to be able to nuke Ukraine but the US have threatened bad things if he does. I think if the west had made more of a threat before the 2022 invasion Putin may well have backed off but Biden was like if you only invade a little bit we won't do much which is kind of how it went.

> Negotiated peace can be a thing if "This hasn't worked for 30 years, but this time it will for sure!" makes for pretty awful geopolitical strategy, historically. But you do you. (Your broader point that Putin's actions are constrained by nuclear deterrents is obviously correct. But it's very clearly not a point about diplomacy!)

I'm not convinced it hasn't worked. There were rumors the US diplomats said to Putin that if he used nukes in Ukraine then probably the US would a) take out his military in Ukraine and b) target him to be killed personally. The diplomatic bit is saying that privately rather than actually getting the nuking and killing going.
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