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OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

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Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#141
post #8

These numbers are pretty ugly. You always expect new tech to operate at a loss initially but the structure of their losses is not something one easily scales out of. In fact it gets more painful as they scale. Unless something fundamentally changes and fast this is gonna get ugly real quick.

they could keep the current model in chatGPT the same forver and 99% of users wouldnt know or care, and unless you think hardware isnt going to improve, the cost of that will basically decrease to 0.

For programming it's okay, for maths it's almost okay. For things like stories and actually dealing with reality, the models aren't even close to okay.

I didn't understand how bad it was until this weekend when I sat down and tried GPT-5, first without the thinking mode and then with the thinking mode, and it misunderstood sentences, generated crazy things, lost track of everything-- completely beyond how bad I thought it could possibly be.

I've fiddled with stories because I saw that LLMs had trouble, but I did not understand that this was where we were in NLP. At first I couldn't even fully believe it because the things don't fail to follow instructions when you talk about programming.

This extends to analyzing discussions. It simply misunderstands what people say. If you try to do this kind of thing you will realise the degree to which these things are just sequence models, with no ability to think, with really short attention spans and no ability to operate in a context. I experimented with stories set in established contexts, and the model repeatedly generated things that were impossible in those contexts.

When you do this kind of thing their character as sequence models that do not really integrate things from different sequences becomes apparent.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#142
post #58

I think the most interesting numbers in this piece (ignoring the stock compensation part) are: $4.3 billion in revenue - presumably from ChatGPT customers and API fees $6.7 billion spent on R&D $2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is? I don't remember seeing many ads for ChatGPT but clearly I've not been paying attention in the right places. Open question for me: where does the cost of ru…

Free users typically fall into sales and marketing. The idea is that if they cut off the entire free tier, they would have still made the same revenue off of paying customers by spending $X on inference and not counting the inference spend on free users.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#143
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have to compete with Zuckerberg throwing $100M comps to poach people. I think $830k per person is nothing in comparison.

Both numbers are entirely ludicrous - highly skilled people are certainly quite valuable. But it's insane that these companies aren't just training up more internally. The 50x developer is a pervasive myth in our industry and it's one that needs to be put to rest.

These numbers aren't that crazy when contextualized with the capex spend. One hundred million is nothing compared to a six hundred billion dollar data center buildout.

Besides, people are actively being trained up. Some labs are just extending offers to people who score very highly on their conscription IQ tests.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike railroads and fibre, all the best compute in 2025 will be lacklustre in 2027. It won’t retain much value in the same way as the infrastructure of previous bubbles did?

Exactly: when was the last time you used ChatGPT-3.5? Its value deprecated to zero after, what, two-and-a-half years? (And the Nvidia chips used to train it have barely retained any value either) The financials here are so ugly: you have to light truckloads of money on fire forever just to jog in place.

> money on fire forever just to jog in place.

Why?

I don't see why these companies can't just stop training at some point. Unless you're saying the cost of inference is unsustainable?

I can envision a future where ChatGPT stops getting new SOTA models, and all future models are built for enterprise or people willing to pay a lot of money for high ROI use cases.

We don't need better models for the vast majority of chats taking place today E.g. kids using it for help with homework - are today's models really not good enough?

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly: when was the last time you used ChatGPT-3.5? Its value deprecated to zero after, what, two-and-a-half years? (And the Nvidia chips used to train it have barely retained any value either) The financials here are so ugly: you have to light truckloads of money on fire forever just to jog in place.

I would think that it's more like a general codebase - even if after 2.5 years, 95% percent of the lines were rewritten, and even if the whole thing was rewritten in a different language, there is no point in time at which its value diminished, as you arguably couldn't have built the new version without all the knowledge (and institutional knowledge) from the older version.

I rejoined an previous employer of mine, someone everyone here knows ... and I found that half their networking equipment is still being maintained by code I wrote in 2012-2014. It has not been rewritten. Hell, I rewrote a few parts that badly needed it despite joining another part of the company.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#146
post #5

$2.5B in stock comp for about 3,000 employees. that’s roughly $830k per person in just six months. Almost 60% of their revenue went straight back to staff.

It's not cashflow, though, and it's not really stock yet, I don't think? They haven't yet reorganized away from being a nonprofit.

If all goes well, someday it will dilute earnings.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike railroads and fibre, all the best compute in 2025 will be lacklustre in 2027. It won’t retain much value in the same way as the infrastructure of previous bubbles did?

> Unlike railroads and fibre, all the best compute in 2025 will be lacklustre in 2027. I definitely don't think compute is anything like railroads and fibre, but I'm not so sure compute will continue it's efficiency gains of the past. Power consumption for these chips is climbing fast, lots of gains are from better hardware support for 8bit/4bit precision, I believe yields are getting harder to achieve as things get…

Unfortunately the chips themselves probably won’t physically last much longer than that under the workloads they are being put to. So, yes, they won’t be totally obsolete as technology in 2028, but they may still have to be replaced.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#148
post #58

I think the most interesting numbers in this piece (ignoring the stock compensation part) are: $4.3 billion in revenue - presumably from ChatGPT customers and API fees $6.7 billion spent on R&D $2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is? I don't remember seeing many ads for ChatGPT but clearly I've not been paying attention in the right places. Open question for me: where does the cost of ru…

> $2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is? I used to follow OpenAI on Instagram, all their posts were reposts from paid influencers making videos on "How to X with ChatGPT." Most videos were redundant, but I guess there are still billions of people that the product has yet to reach.

Seems like it’ll take billions more down the drain to serve them.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike railroads and fibre, all the best compute in 2025 will be lacklustre in 2027. It won’t retain much value in the same way as the infrastructure of previous bubbles did?

Yep, we are (unfortunately) still running on railroad infrastructure built a century ago. The amortization periods on that spending is ridiculously long. Effectively every single H100 in existence now will be e-waste in 5 years or less. Not exactly railroad infrastructure here, or even dark fiber.

> Effectively every single H100 in existence now will be e-waste in 5 years or less.

This remains to be seen. H100 is 3 years old now, and is still the workhorse of all the major AI shops. When there's something that is obviously better for training, these are still going to be used for inference.

If what you say is true, you could find a A100 for cheap/free right now. But check out the prices.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#150
post #58

I think the most interesting numbers in this piece (ignoring the stock compensation part) are: $4.3 billion in revenue - presumably from ChatGPT customers and API fees $6.7 billion spent on R&D $2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is? I don't remember seeing many ads for ChatGPT but clearly I've not been paying attention in the right places. Open question for me: where does the cost of ru…

We gave ChatGPT advertising on bus-stops here in the UK.

Two people in a cafe having a meet-up, they are both happy, one is holding a phone and they are both looking at it.

And it has a big ChatGPT logo in the top right corner of the advertisement - transparent just the black logo with ChatGPT written underneath.

That's it. No text or anything telling you what the product is or does. Just it will make you happy during conversations with friends somehow.

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