Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The most likely outcome is that body shops can no longer afford H-1Bs, but big tech still can. For publicly-held large tech, the equation isn't about affordability but about maximizing shareholder dividends. Moving jobs overseas has long been the preferred means to that end.
Sure, but they have always been able to do that. It's always been cheaper to hire employees overseas than to employe H-1Bs here. Making H-1Bs more expensive increases the delta and probably makes it more attractive for some jobs. But clearly there is some value in employing people in the US or they would have already moved the jobs.
I think the newness (some period before 2020) of tech in general tended to intimidate those legacy shareholder groups who got in early. And I suspect that early shareholding was often dominated by employees, etc (not sure tho).
I think those interests plus the proximity to adjacent industries created strong interest in US Gov's (now-former) incentives to create to bring many of the best minds here.
We've dialed back all the above. We've put truly hostile interests in power that are weaponizing Gov assets & millions of supporters - against every manifestation of immigration. Our actual outcomes are flavored with rising Gov violence and populist animosity toward (mostly non-white) immigrants and those associated with them.
Considering what and where we are, I absolutely see this high-paying, historical class of jobs being shipped overseas.