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Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

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Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#141

Post by PKop »

elevatortrim wrote: post #49
lukev wrote: post #18

It's pretty clear this is happening. The question is... is this based on existing capability of LLMs to do these jobs? Or are companies doing this on the expectation that AI is advanced enough to pick up the slack? I have observed a disconnect in which management is typically far more optimistic about AI being capable of performing a specific task than are the workers who currently perform that task. And to what exte…

I do not see anything in this study that accounts for the decline in economic activity. Is it AI replacing the jobs, or is it that companies are not optimistically hiring, which disproportionally impacts entry level jobs?

Or H1B / outsourcing replacement. There are data points showing tech companies hiring thousands of foreign workers while layout off domestic employees. It should factor in to these analyses of displaced junior developers.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#143

Post by cornholio »

lukev wrote: post #18

It's pretty clear this is happening. The question is... is this based on existing capability of LLMs to do these jobs? Or are companies doing this on the expectation that AI is advanced enough to pick up the slack? I have observed a disconnect in which management is typically far more optimistic about AI being capable of performing a specific task than are the workers who currently perform that task. And to what exte…

An alternate explanation is that, even if AI does not have any chance of entirely replacing an employee, not even junior hires, in the hands of competent seniors AI does substantially improve their productivity and eliminates whole classes of tasks that were traditionally where juniors cut their teeth.

So companies reduce junior hiring because their work is relatively less valuable, and they can meet their goals by shuffling existing resources. When they can't do that, they go for seniors since the immediate bang for the buck is higher (ofc, while depleting the global pipeline that actually produces seniors in the long run, in a typical tragedy of the commons)

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#144

Post by neutronicus »

JustExAWS wrote: post #99
neutronicus wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ones in group 2 that also aggressively prune expensive, complacent seniors might even win in the short run! Young people are cheap and they love AI!

How much cheaper are younger developers overall? If you look at the delta between junior and mid level developers in most industries - ie enterprise dev not BigTech or adjacent - it’s really not that much

It's a down market and you might be better able to retain them if the market turns up again (or maybe not, I'm old and mostly just want a remote gig where I have time to parent my child).

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#145

Post by osigurdson »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #62
osigurdson wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a few companies do this it is probably fine, but more interesting if most companies do this. It seems that it would be akin to a self inflicted depression with severe deflation.

From your lips to Blackrock's ears.

I'm sorry, I don't understand.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#146

Post by ACCount37 »

PKop wrote: post #141
elevatortrim wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not see anything in this study that accounts for the decline in economic activity. Is it AI replacing the jobs, or is it that companies are not optimistically hiring, which disproportionally impacts entry level jobs?

Or H1B / outsourcing replacement. There are data points showing tech companies hiring thousands of foreign workers while layout off domestic employees. It should factor in to these analyses of displaced junior developers.

The usual outsourcing capitals of the world also report considerable job losses.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#147

Post by squigz »

clusterhacks wrote: post #137
squigz wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For these firms, we observe 156,765,776 positions dating back to 2015 and 245,838,118 job postings since 2021, of which 198,773,384 successfully matched with their raw text description." I'm obviously misreading this somehow. How do you have 156m positions dating back to 2015, but far more than that number in a smaller timeframe?

I think it is just poorly worded. From another point in the paper: "Our analysis draws on a new dataset that combines LinkedIn resume and job-posting data from Revelio Labs. The dataset covers nearly 285,000 U.S. firms, more than 150 million employment spells from roughly 62 million unique workers between 2015 and 2025, and over 245 million job postings." I guess we can read that as saying the authors identified 62 m…

Ah okay, positions (actual jobs) vs job postings. Makes sense. Thanks!

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#148

Post by legacynl »

squigz wrote: post #132
clusterhacks wrote: post #105

I am confused about how to feel about the data the paper is based on. If you look at the paper, the data description is: "Our primary data source is a detailed LinkedIn-based resume dataset provided by Revelio Labs ... We complement the worker resume data with Revelio’s database of job postings, which tracks recruitment activity by the firms since 2021 ... The final sample consists of 284,974 U.S. firms that were suc…

> For these firms, we observe 156,765,776 positions dating back to 2015 and 245,838,118 job postings since 2021, of which 198,773,384 successfully matched with their raw text description." I'm obviously misreading this somehow. How do you have 156m positions dating back to 2015, but far more than that number in a smaller timeframe?

You're misreading, 156m positions, and 245m job postings. A single position can have multiple job postings created for it.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#149

Post by jf22 »

carlosjobim wrote: post #140
jf22 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't accurate. Birth rates are declining but population is still increasing in most countries.

Birth rates are of course the only thing which matters. If your car runs out of gas, it will still roll for a small stretch, but it is irrelevant.

I don't know what you're saying.

>Practically the whole planet is experiencing population decline now.

That's objectively false.

Re: Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change

#150

Post by pmg101 »

osigurdson wrote: post #21

What happens when companies refuse to hire, even though there is an obvious need? It has to lead to reduced growth. If the majority of companies do this, I would think it would lead to a severe deflationary cycle.

Won't the lunch of the companies that refuse to hire/grow be eaten by other companies that don't?
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