In my trade economics textbook years ago it was stated that the cleared customs cost of an imported good is no more than 30% of its final consumer price, and more typically 10%. The rest is inland logistics, retail costs, and marketing. Further to that, 80% of the economy is services or otherwise has nothing to do with imports. Tariffs are not affecting haircuts or yoga classes or bank fees. Seems to me like tariffs…
Right, but if you double the cleared customs cost with a 100% tariff, many of those additional costs are levied as a constant margin, which tends toward doubling the retail price. You might argue that the retail channel can eat the difference, but it doesn't make sense to make the same absolute margin on goods that are subject to volatile tariff policies. It makes it hard to predict how many units will sell, how much…
I’m sure you can find short term examples of this, but in the long run consumer products tend towards a pretty “fair” price given the cost of retail, marketing, shipping, returns etc - all of which are things that do not anywhere near double when you pay a tariff. Your fat margins are someone else’s opportunity; walk around Walmart or Home Depot or Amazon and you won’t find a lot of fat margins. So no, you won’t double retail prices.