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LLM Daydreaming

gwern.net

141–150 of 156 posts

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t consider thousands of scientists developing competing, and often incorrect, solutions for a single domain as a “brute force” attempt by humanity, but do when the same occurs with disparate solutions from parallel LLM attempts? That’s certainly an…opinion.

My least favorite type of argument on this site is when someone takes a word with a specific meaning and warps it well beyond the reasonable interpretation just so they can claim they’re making a good analogy. It seems to happen every day here with AI. Brute force and typical scientific research are such dramatically different things, I have to wonder if bots are getting into HN I almost can’t believe someone would t…

Yes, that would be a ridiculous comparison. However, you’re suggesting that calling both a dolphin and a fish “aquatic” is a a false comparison because one is a mammal. Most normal people would call things that someone makes up and are eventually proven false a failed “guess”. Or at least they do when they aren’t busy trying to protect egos. Difference is, one wastes millions of dollars trying to prove every guess right.

But sure, well done, you really got me! Beep boop! I must be a bot because you don’t agree. ”lol”!

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#142
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out the DeepSeek paper. Research/benchmarks aside, try giving a somewhat hard programming task to Opus 4 with reasoning off vs. on. Similarly, try the same with o3 vs. o3-pro (o3-pro reasons for much longer). I'm not going to dig through my history for specific examples, but I do these kinds of comparisons occasionally when coding, and it's not unusual to have e.g. a bug that o3 can't figure out, but o3-pro can…

Huh, I wasn't aware that reasoning could be toggled. I use the OpenRouter API, and just saw that this is supported both via their web UI and API. I'm used to Sonnet 3.5 and 4 without reasoning, and their performance is roughly the same IME. I wouldn't trust comparing two different models, even from the same provider and family, since there could be many reasons for the performance to be different. Their system prompt…

Reasoning cannot actually be toggled. LLM companies serve completely different models based on whether you have reasoning enabled or disabled for "Opus 4".

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t consider thousands of scientists developing competing, and often incorrect, solutions for a single domain as a “brute force” attempt by humanity, but do when the same occurs with disparate solutions from parallel LLM attempts? That’s certainly an…opinion.

My least favorite type of argument on this site is when someone takes a word with a specific meaning and warps it well beyond the reasonable interpretation just so they can claim they’re making a good analogy. It seems to happen every day here with AI. Brute force and typical scientific research are such dramatically different things, I have to wonder if bots are getting into HN I almost can’t believe someone would t…

Sorites paradox, but for bits of evidence in the Bayesian prior.

Just as a heap of sand stops being a heap when it's small enough, the difference between "science" (not just modern but everything from Newton and Galileo onwards) and "brute force" is the available evidence before whatever hypothesis we're testing.

Scientific research these days requires a lot of prior information, things humanity collectively has learned, as a foundation. We have a lot of weight on our Bayesian priors for whatever hypothesis we're testing.

Sorites even applies to your own attempt to mock it, as the difference between humans and dolphins is "just" a series of genetic changes. Absolutely they're different and it's obvious why you chose the example, but even then it's a series of distinct small changes that are each so small it's easy to blur them together than treat them as a continuum, like we do with water even though that's also discrete molecules.

Humanity massively predates the modern scientific method, it took millennia of mistakes to go from the Greeks being wrong about four elements to finding a bit less than the 91 natural elements, and from there to finding the nucleus (1911) and that it was made of protons and neutrons; and only then did we get to logical positivism (late 1920s), and it was only around WW2 (just before, Karl Popper 1934) that we switched to falsifiability.

Each grain on the heap. We know the fields of work, we know the space of possibilities within the paradigm, the shape of the research can be to constrain that space without finding the answer directly — a divide-and-conquer approach to reducing the space that needs to be then brute forced.

These days we can even automate much of the more obviously brute-force parts, which is why e.g. CERN throws away so much data from the detectors before it even reaches their "real" data processing system. And why SETI automatically processes out any signals that seem to be from in-system before the rest of the work.

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#144

I’m not sure we can accept the premise that LLMs haven’t made any breakthroughs. What if people aren’t giving the LLM credit when they get a breakthrough from it? First time I got good code out of a model, I told my friends and coworkers about it. Not anymore. The way I see it, the model is a service I (or my employer) pays for. Everyone knows it’s a tool that I can use, and nobody expects me to apportion credit for…

Almost certainly an LLM has, in response to a prompt and through sheer luck, spat out the kernel of an idea that a super-human centaur of the year 2125 would see as groundbreaking that hasn't been recognized as such. We have a thin conception of genius that can be challenged by Edison's "1% inspiration, 99% perspiration" or the process of getting a PhD were you might spend 7 years getting to the point where you can s…

Broadly agree (I see lots of "ideas people" who have no interest in doing), the only thing I would say is that the occasional results from the big AI groups suggests it takes less than 1e6 machines — but probably more than 100 even for low-hanging fruit, which is already too much for a lot of people to stomach, so the point is still valid.

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is hard to accept as a premise because the premise is questionable from the beginning. Google already reported several breakthroughs as a direct result of AI, using processes that almost certainly include LLMs, including a new solution in math, improved chip designs, etc. DeepMind has AI that predicted millions of protein folds which are already being used in drugs among many other things they do, though yes, not…

> through brute force The same is true of humanity in aggregate. We attribute discoveries to an individual or group of researchers but to claim humans are efficient at novel research is a form of survivorship bias. We ignore the numerous researchers who failed to achieve the same discoveries.

I would argue that the ratio of work to breakthroughs is not a form of inefficiency, but something inevitable about the nature of breakthroughs.

In my opinion, a breakthrough is not the production of new knowledge, it is rather its adoption by the public (beginning with industry).

As such, the rate at which breakthroughs can emerge is bounded by factors external to the producers of breakthroughs. And these outside factors are possibly already limiting.

Another point I would make is that what constitutes a breakthrough is not conditioned by how significant it is, only that it is adopted as a change of processes or mental model. As such, more powerful tools can lead to larger leaps between breakthroughs, but not so much higher rate of breakthrough.

As tools become powerful enough to produce yesterday's year's worth of breakthroughs in a month, then the general public and industry will still wait a year before adopting new technology, only it will see larger progress from the previous iteration. This is in fact the case with LLMs. Even on an avant-garde forum as HN, a very common opinion is "I'm waiting out stagnation before I adopt".

As an over simplification, consider only breakthroughs those that come to have widespread commercial application. If we had an oracle for breakthroughs that could produce arbitrarily many today's-breakthroughs as fast as desired, we'd still be limited by our ability to put them in practice. Work must be allocated, carried out over time, and each new breakthrough requires changing processes and the people involved learning new things, which takes time and energy.

I think this human resistance to change is fundamentally what determines the achievable rate of breakthroughs. As the name implies, a breakthrough is a rupture. It is highly inefficient to be upending one's methods every month. It can even be outright impossible to keep up with all the theoretical advancements, before they have crystallized and been digested into accessible vulgarization, if that is not one's profession (i.e. all time devoted to it).

In my applied sciences field, industry is lagging behind some 20 years. And we ourselves are perhaps a century late to some theoretical advances (I can think of one off the top of my head). At the lowest level, there is resistance to change in that ideas take much longer to be carried to a working prototype, than it takes to have them. Hence, someone who constantly hops to new ideas is guaranteed not to make any progress. By necessity, some stubbornness is selected for. Once things are fleshed out (a multi year endeavour), you still have to convince the broader community (same sub field but not direct collaborators) that your idea has merits surpassing theirs, which is a problem best solved one retirement, and one past mentee hire, at a time. And ultimately convince industrial actors that they should dump millions industrializing these novel methods, when none of their competitors have been doing it (hence it is urgent to wait), the viability (robustness, scalability) of the idea remains to be seen, and the benefits weighed against the risk their practitioner user base won't be able to understand the full scope of the progress and see the need to invest time in learning new things and devising new processes (all of which takes time, money, and makes you dependent on this pioneering supplier). And, lastly, there are three other approaches claiming to be better alternatives.

I don't see a way around this pipeline, and more powerful tools can indeed accelerate some of the stages, but there will remain incompressible delays. Ideas need time to be diffused and understood, all the more if they were advancing at a rapid pace enabled by powerful AIs.

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#147
I've said before that until these "AI" systems become always-on, always-thinking, always-processing, progress is stuck. The current push-button AI - meaning it only processes when we prompt it - is not how the kind of AI that everyone is dreaming of needs to function. ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44423983#44426438 )

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

letting claude pen commits is wild.

It’s great. It’s become my preferred workflow for vibe coding because it writes great commit messages, gives you a record of authorship, and rollbacks use far fewer tokens. You don’t have to (and probably shouldn’t) let it push to the remote branch.

I'm glad that workflow works for you, I suppose. I let it edit files but not commit because I should have a full understanding and accounting of what changed, why, how, and what to commit.

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#149
A genuine new insight is a "theory" which is a deterministic symbolic representation of the chaotic worlds of meaning. A theory is a formalism which can explain and predict phenomena. A theory consists of symbols to represent concepts, and rules to associate symbols.

for example, euclidean geometry organizes the perceptions of "space" around us, or newtonian mechanics organizes the perceptions of "motion" or turing machine organizes computation.

LLMs cannot create theories yet since they are missing the capability to create symbols to represent things and link them via rules.

Re: LLM Daydreaming

#150
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My least favorite type of argument on this site is when someone takes a word with a specific meaning and warps it well beyond the reasonable interpretation just so they can claim they’re making a good analogy. It seems to happen every day here with AI. Brute force and typical scientific research are such dramatically different things, I have to wonder if bots are getting into HN I almost can’t believe someone would t…

Sorites paradox, but for bits of evidence in the Bayesian prior. Just as a heap of sand stops being a heap when it's small enough, the difference between "science" (not just modern but everything from Newton and Galileo onwards) and "brute force" is the available evidence before whatever hypothesis we're testing. Scientific research these days requires a lot of prior information, things humanity collectively has lear…

Re: the Sorites paradox, I have a definition of a heap that I think is workable.

It's not a specific number; it's "a collection of items becomes a heap when some indeterminate number of items are obscured by other items on top of them, thus making the total number of items uncountable without disturbing the heap".

Therefore it depends on factors beyond just the number of grains of sand; if you have 1000 grains spread out on a surface so they are can all be distinctly counted, that's not a heap. But if you have 1000 grains gathered together, some on top of each other, then it becomes a heap.

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