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GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

glp1digest.com

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Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#141

Post by loeg »

mattmanser wrote: post #88
petesergeant wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> admittedly, it kind of sucks in the moment to be on I don’t think that’s a typical experience for most people, other than the price

There's often side effects, including nausea, diarrhea, headaches, bloating, discomfort, etc. As far as I can tell from forums, it's not like 5% have the side effects, it's like 80-90%. But for the first time in decades, I felt full. I didn't want to finish a meal, it was too much. My body regulated my food intake in what felt like a natural way. I hadn't even realized my body had somehow lost that fundamental mechan…

I had more side effects ramping up the dose than after a while at the same dose. But they were all fairly mild. (I'm on 5mg/week of Tirzepatide; higher doses probably have more side effects.)

> If you do over-indulge (with food or drink) the side effects can sometimes be massively amplified and you feel terrible for days.

Never had anything like that.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#142

Post by hiAndrewQuinn »

Marsymars wrote: post #105
hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... I just switch life insurance providers? Seriously, that's just not that big of a deal. It takes like a few days at most for simple term life. Can't speak to the other policies, which I understand are mostly tax vehicles anyway, but it's not hard to simply get a new life insurance policy if your current one goes kaput.

That’s a pretty bad deal if you’re 10 years into a 20-year term, and your rates were determined prior to a decade of inflation and new pre-existing conditions.

I admit that's unfortunate. I don't think that was a "bad deal" in the sense that anyone grievously misled you or anything.

I would feel bummed out, but not angry or like I actually got ripped off, in other words. When I signed up for the 20-year term, part of what I was being asked to do was estimate how likely I think it is for this firm to actually be around for that full 20 years. That's just part of the game.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#143

Post by DrillShopper »

ramoz wrote: post #38
hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #23

So... There's a miracle drug powerful enough to robustly lower people's all cause mortality, but since health insurance and life insurance are industries with vastly different time preferences, this is not a good thing for the life insurers because people just keep getting off the magic longevity drug and screwing up their predictions. Because, admittedly, it kind of sucks in the moment to be on. And I'm guessing jus…

Can you explain what sucks about being on the prescriptions?

Hi there - Mounjaro user here. I've been using it for about a year at this point.

I feel sick for three days in a row after taking it. Even after several months on the same dose. I get horrible gut cramps, sour stomach, near constant nausea, and occasionally vomiting and diarrhea. I have to take my shot on Thursday night because I'll feel bad the next day and supremely sick the next two days. If I took it earlier or later in the week it would absolutely impact my ability to work during the work week.

It has had amazing effects. I've lost about 60 lbs in the last year and my A1c is now around 6.2.

It's a very effective drug, but it is brutal on my body. I'm not sure anything in the medication is causing the weight loss. It just makes me feel so sick that even if I'm hungry I don't feel like eating.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#144

Post by eclipticplane »

carlosjobim wrote: post #133
FabHK wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and the question was about the aggregate effect. What happens if all life insurers go bankrupt?

That is great, they are by definition a net negative on the economy as a whole? You shouldn't gamble on your own health.

Perhaps some life insurance products fall into that category. For many families, though, term life insurance plays a big part into ensuring financial security if one income earner dies prematurely.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#145

Post by samus »

refulgentis wrote: post #112
linsomniac wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There's a miracle drug powerful enough to robustly lower people's all cause mortality Did I misread the article, my TL;DR of the article is that GLP-1 reduce the indicators or mortality without modifying the actual mortality (because most users return to normal indicators within about 2 years).

Subtly different: you read "most...return to normal...within 2 years", it says "When someone stops the medication , they'll [return to baseline]" Then from there, I click through the 65% #, assuming they have a good study on 65% of people stop after a year. Nah, they don't. It's super complex but tl;dr: specific cohort, and somehow the # getting on it in year 2 is higher than the # of people who quit in year 1. I hav…

Since it's so new, of course there aren't any long-term data on GLP-1 takers. However, relying on prior knowledge about people who are good on the metrics, it can be presumed that they will do fine. And won't create financial risk for the insurer due to passing on earlier than expected. But only if they keep taking their meds and/or fix any underlying behavioral and health issues that made them obese in the first case!

Regarding the graph about slippage: yes, that looks like the Covid peak. However, even assuming this recent trend is an anomaly, the industry is in a changing landscape and needs to adapt. New metrics and criteria, and the fastest mover will capture the market. Business as usual.

I don't feel sad except for the people who managed to bring their health issues under control and now can't get life insurance.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#146

Post by ecb_penguin »

hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #122
ecb_penguin wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think it's that simple, you have no idea what you're talking about. How many years experience do you have in the insurance industry that you're so confident to talk like this? > because this is a financial product and doesn't require months of building a factory or something to offer. How many financial instruments have you launched? If the answer is zero, you should refrain from any conversations on the topic…

I do actually think it's that simple, yes. Term life is just not that complicated a product at heart. Onus is on you to prove that if every single life insurance provider was suddenly Thanos snapped out of existence tomorrow, we wouldn't see a swarm of hungry financial professionals swoop right back in to recreate the service within weeks. That seems like a laughable claim to me, but maybe you know something I don't.…

Ok, so you have no experience and you're just making things up.

> Term life is just not that complicated a product at heart

Sure, it's easy if you don't know what you're talking about and just make stuff up!

> Onus is on you to prove that if every single life insurance provider was suddenly Thanos snapped out of existence tomorrow

Literally nobody said that would happen. Now you're arguing points that nobody made.

You have no experience in the area, arguing things nobody said. You're perfect for VC money, lmao.

> That seems like a laughable claim to me

Nobody made that claim. Why are you laughing at things nobody is saying? That's weird.

> That seems like a laughable claim to me, but maybe you know something I don't.

I would 100% guarantee people that have worked in an industry know more about it than you do.

Textbook demonstration of the Dunning-Kruger effect. You have no knowledge or experience in an area, but you're confident you know how it works, moreso than the actual experts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#147

Post by _9ptr »

massung wrote: post #92
arn3n wrote: post #4

Obesity is highly correlated with other medical conditions, from cancer to diabetes to heart disease. I wonder if there is a point at which it is cheaper for health insurance companies to offer subsidized or even free GLP-1s to patients than pay out for other specialized medications. For example, my insurance covers flu shots in my community every year because it's presumably less expensive to pay for the shots compa…

I don’t know if your topic switch was intentional - if so, my apologies and this is just for people outside the US who don’t know… The article is about life insurance, which is very different from medical insurance. Medical insurance companies often already go out of their way to pay early to save in the long run (e.g. free preventative care, checkups, etc.). I can’t speak to GLP-1s, but it’s possible that right now…

It's not a gamble, it's an application of the law of large numbers. But yes, changes in the underlying assumptions (e.g. mortality rates) can make the whole calculation untenable.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#148

Post by DrillShopper »

mattmanser wrote: post #88
petesergeant wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> admittedly, it kind of sucks in the moment to be on I don’t think that’s a typical experience for most people, other than the price

There's often side effects, including nausea, diarrhea, headaches, bloating, discomfort, etc. As far as I can tell from forums, it's not like 5% have the side effects, it's like 80-90%. But for the first time in decades, I felt full. I didn't want to finish a meal, it was too much. My body regulated my food intake in what felt like a natural way. I hadn't even realized my body had somehow lost that fundamental mechan…

The one thing that helped blunt the side effects for me was cannabis. Just a few puffs at night on the three nights after my injection made a huge difference.

I wouldn't recommend that to everyone, but it helped a lot for me.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#149

Post by DrillShopper »

carlosjobim wrote: post #133
FabHK wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and the question was about the aggregate effect. What happens if all life insurers go bankrupt?

That is great, they are by definition a net negative on the economy as a whole? You shouldn't gamble on your own health.

If you want to gamble on your health then you want a tontine, not life insurance.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#150

Post by aetherson »

dragonwriter wrote: post #136
linsomniac wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There's a miracle drug powerful enough to robustly lower people's all cause mortality Did I misread the article, my TL;DR of the article is that GLP-1 reduce the indicators or mortality without modifying the actual mortality (because most users return to normal indicators within about 2 years).

It's a maintenance medicine, not a cure, so if people stop taking it, they return to the same problems they had without it.

And it's under-commented upon because it's counterintuitive, but most people stop taking it. Like, two year continuation of use is about 25%.

That's kinda wild, because it seems like holy shit if you're taking a drug that lets you drop 10-20% of your body weight from obese down to normal why would you stop taking it, but people do.

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