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Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

thealgorithmicbridge.com

141–150 of 243 posts

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#141
Thanks for the read. I think it's a highly relevant article, especially around the moral issues of making addictive products. As a normal person in the Swedish society I feel social media, shorts and reels in particular, has an addictive grip on many in my vicinity.

And as a developer I can see similar patterns with AI prompts: prompt, wait, win/lose, re-prompt. It is alluring and it certainly feels.. rewarding when you get it right.

1) I have been curious as to why so few people in Silicon Valley seems to be concerned with, even talking about, the good of the products. The good of the company they join. Could someone in the industry enlighten me, what are the conversations in SV around this issue? Do people care if they make an addictive product which seems to impact people's lives negatively? Do the VCs?

2) I appreciate the author's efforts in creating conversation around this. What are ways one could try to help the efforts? While I have no online following, I feel rather doomy and gloomy about AI pushing more addictive usage patterns out in to the world, and would like to help if there is something suitable I could do.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#142
post #57

I keep seeing this charge that AI companies have an “Uber problem” meaning the business is heavily subsidized by VC. Is there any analysis that has been done that explains how this breaks down (training vs inference and what current pricing is)? At least with Uber you had a cab fare as a benchmark. But what should, for example, ChatGPT actually cost me per month without the VC subsidy? How far off are we?

It depends on how far behind you believe the model-available LLMs are. If I can buy, say, $10k worth of hardware and run a sufficiently equivalent LLM at home for the cost of that plus electricity, and amortize that over say 5 years to get $2k/yr plus electricity, and say you use it 40 hours a week for 50 weeks, for 2000 hours, gets you $1/hr plus electricity. That electrical cost will vary depending on location, but…

These estimates are way off. The concurrent requests are near free with the right serving infrastructure. The throughput per token per dollar is 1/100-1/1000 the price for a full saturated node.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very very good at sounding like it understands stuff. Almost as good as actually understanding stuff in some fields, sure. But it's definitely not the same. It will confidently analyze and describe a chess position using advanced sounding book techniques, but its all fundamentally flawed, often missing things that are extremely obvious (like, an undefended queen free to take) while trying to sound like its a sea…

A sufficiently good simulation of understanding is functionally equivalent to understanding. At that point, the question of whether the model really does understand is pointless. We might as well argue about whether humans understand.

> A sufficiently good simulation of understanding is functionally equivalent to understanding.

This is just a thing to say that has no substantial meaning.

  - What is "sufficiently" mean? 
  - What is functionally equivalent? 
  - and what is even understanding?
All just vague hand waving

We're not philosophizing here, we're talking about practical results and clearly, in the current context, it does not deliver in that area.

> At that point, the question of whether the model really does understand is pointless.

You're right it is pointless, because you are suggesting something that doesnt exist. And the current models cannot understand

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very very good at sounding like it understands stuff. Almost as good as actually understanding stuff in some fields, sure. But it's definitely not the same. It will confidently analyze and describe a chess position using advanced sounding book techniques, but its all fundamentally flawed, often missing things that are extremely obvious (like, an undefended queen free to take) while trying to sound like its a sea…

A sufficiently good simulation of understanding is functionally equivalent to understanding. At that point, the question of whether the model really does understand is pointless. We might as well argue about whether humans understand.

thats the point though, its not sufficient. Not even slightly. It constantly makes obvious mistakes, and cannot keep things coherent

I was almost going to explicitly mention your point but deleted it because I thought people would be able to understand.

This is not a philosophy/theology sitting around handwringing about "oh but would a sufficiently powerful LLM be able to dance on the head of a pin". We're talking about a thing, that actually exists, that you can actually test. In a whole lot of real-world scenarios that you try to throw at it, it fails in strange and unpredictable ways. Ways that it will swear up and down it did not do. It will lie to your face. It's convincing. But then it will lose in chess, it will fuck up running a vending machine buisness, it will get lost coding and reinvent the same functions over and over, it will make completely nonsensical answers to crossword puzzles.

This is not an intelligence that is unlimited, it is a deeply flawed two year old that just so happens to have read the entire output of human writing. It's a fundamentally different mind to ours, and makes different mistakes. It sounds convincing and yet fails, constantly. It will tell you a four step explanation of how its going to do something, then fail to execute four simple steps.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#145

AGI might be a technological breakthrough, but what would be the business case for it? Is there one? So far I have only seen it been thrown around to create hype.

The women of the world are creating millions of new intelligence beings every day. I'm really not sure what having one made of metal is going to get us. Right now the AGI tech bros seem to me to be subscribed to some new weird religion. They take it on faith that some super intelligence is going to solve the world problems. We already have some really high IQ people today, and I don't see them doing much better than…

I think it's important to not let valid criticisms of implausibly short AGI timelines cloud our judgments of AGI's potential impact. Compared to babies born today, AGI that's actually AGI may have many advantages:

- Faster reading and writing speed

- Ability to make copies of the most productive workers

- No old age

- No need to sleep

- No need to worry about severance and welfare and human rights and breaks and worker safety

- Can be scaled up and scaled down and redeployed much more quickly

- Potentially lower cost, especially with adaptive compute

- Potentially high processing speed

Even if AGI has downsides compared to human labor, it might also have advantages that lead to widespread deployment.

Like, if I had an employee with low IQ, but this employee could work 24 hours around the clock learning and practicing, and they could work for 200 years straight without aging, and they could make parallel copies of themselves, surely there would have to be some tasks at which they're going to outperform humans, right?

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#146
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-is-a-systemic-risk-to-the...

This article isn’t particularly helpful. It focuses on a ton of specific OpenAI business decisions that aren’t necessarily generalizable to the rest of the industry. OpenAI itself might be out over its skis, but what I’m asking about is the meta-accusation that AI in general is heavily subsidized. When the music stops, what does the price of AI look like? The going rate for chat bots like ChatGPT is $20/month. Does t…

OK, how about another article that mentions the other big players, including Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google. https://www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#147
post #47

Honestly this article sounds like someone is unhappy that AI isn’t being deployed/developed “the way I feel it should be done”. Talent changing companies is bad. Companies making money to pay for the next training run is bad. Consumers getting products they want is bad. In the author’s view, AI should be advanced in a research lab by altruistic researchers and given directly to other altruistic researchers to advance…

I feel I could argue the counterpoint. Hijacking the pathways of the human brain that leads to addictive behaviour has the potential to utterly ruins peoples lives. And so talking about it, if you have good intentions, seems like a thing anyone with the heart in the right place would.

Take VEO3 and YouTube integration as an example:

Google made VEO3 and YouTube has shorts and are aware of the data that shows addictive behaviour (i.e. a person sitting down at 11pm, sitting up doing shorts for 3 hours, and then having 5 hours of sleep, before doing shorts on the bus on the way to work) - I am sure there are other negative patterns, but this is one I can confirm from a friend.

If you have data that shows your other distribution platform are being used to an excessive amount, and you create a powerful new AI content generator, is that good for the users?

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#148
post #140

"A disturbing amount of effort goes into making AI tools engaging rather than useful or productive." Right. It worked for social media monetization. "... hallucinations ..." The elephant in the room. Until that problem is solved. AI systems can't be trusted to do anything on their own. The solution the AI industry has settled on is to make hallucinations an externality, like pollution. They're fine as long as someone…

When you say “do anything in their own”, what kind of things do you mean?

Take actions which have consequences.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#149
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Related to your point: if these tools are close to having super-human intelligence, and they make humans so much more productive, why aren't we seeing improvements at a much faster rate than we are now? Why aren't inherent problems like hallucination already solved, or at least less of an issue? Surely the smartest researchers and engineers money can buy would be dogfooding, no? This is the main point that proves to…

> if these tools are close to having super-human intelligence, and they make humans so much more productive, why aren't we seeing improvements at a much faster rate than we are now? Why aren't inherent problems like hallucination already solved, or at least less of an issue? Surely the smartest researchers and engineers money can buy would be dogfooding, no? Hallucination does seem to be much less of an issue now. I…

> Hallucination does seem to be much less of an issue now. I hardly even hear about it - like it just faded away.

Nonsense, there is a TON of discussion around how the standard workflow is "have Cursor-or-whatever check the linter and try to run the tests and keep iterating until it gets it right" that is nothing but "work around hallucinations." Functions that don't exist. Lines that don't do what the code would've required them to do. Etc. And yet I still hit cases weekly-at-least, when trying to use these "agents" to do more complex things, where it talks itself into a circle and can't figure it out.

What are you trying to get these things to do, and how are you validating that there are no hallucinations? You hardly ever "hear about it" but ... do you see it? How deeply are you checking for it?

(It's also just old news - a new hallucination is less newsworthy now, we are all so used to it.)

Of course, the internet is full of people claiming that they are using the same tools I am but with multiple factors higher output. Yet I wonder... if this is the case, where is the acceleration in improvement in quality in any of the open source software I use daily? Or where are the new 10x-AI-agent-produced replacements? (Or the closed-source products, for that matter - but there it's harder to track the actual code.) Or is everyone who's doing less-technical, less-intricate work just getting themselves hyped into a tizzy about getting faster generation of basic boilerplate for languages they hadn't personally mastered before?

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#150
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if these tools are close to having super-human intelligence, and they make humans so much more productive, why aren't we seeing improvements at a much faster rate than we are now? Why aren't inherent problems like hallucination already solved, or at least less of an issue? Surely the smartest researchers and engineers money can buy would be dogfooding, no? Hallucination does seem to be much less of an issue now. I…

Not at all. The reason it's not talked about as much these days is because the prevailing way to work around it is by using "agents". I.e. by continuously prompting the LLM in a loop until it happens to generate the correct response. This brute force approach is hardly a solution, especially in fields that don't have a quick way of verifying the output. In programming, trying to compile the code can catch many (but d…

> In other science and humanities fields this is just not possible, and verifying the output is much more labor intensive.

Even just in industry, I think data functions at companies will have a dicey future.

I haven't seen many places where there's scientific peer review - or even software-engineering-level code-review - of findings from data science teams. If the data scientist team says "we should go after this demographic" and it sounds plausible, it usually gets implemented.

So if the ability to validate was already missing even pre-LLM, what hope is there for validation of the LLM-powered replacement. And so what hope is there of the person doing the non-LLM-version of keeping their job (at least until several quarters later when the strategy either proves itself out or doesn't.)

How many other departments are there where the same lack of rigor already exists? Marketing, sales, HR... yeesh.

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