Its almost as if a totalitarian government is trying to isolate its population from objective reality, and make them dependent of the state narrative for understanding of the world.
Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
141–150 of 167 posts
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#142But, isn’t European data modeling of hurricanes better than that of the USA? I assume this is only the USA forecasting that is being set back?
https://www.preventionweb.net/news/which-hurricane-models-sh...
HAFS is often the best
https://www.noaa.gov/news/new-noaa-system-ushers-in-next-gen...
European models assimilate in data from US satellites and vice versa
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#143NOAA-20 is better and will still be available. Also from NOAA: “Noaa said they would not affect the quality of forecasting.” Decommissioning old sensors?
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/critical-hurricane-fore...
“The ATMS sounder that remains is far inferior to hurricane forecasters than the SSMIS instrument the Department of Defense is discontinuing. Unlike the SSMIS which scans at a continuous resolution, the quality of the ATMS degrades considerably on its edges, rendering the sounder useless for most operational hurricane forecasts. The example below shows the difference between the scans from both instruments for Hurricane Erick last Wednesday, June 18th.”
There is also a useful figure included.
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#144This is likely because the DMSP satellites are outdated: "In 2015, Congress voted to terminate the DMSP program and to scrap the DMSP 5D-3/F20 satellite, ordering the Air Force to move on to a next-generation system." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Meteorological_Satelli... The GOES-R satellites seem to have equal or better resolution: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atot/4/4/1520-042... https://en.…
I recommend readng this article https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/critical-hurricane-fore...
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
Except they won't. There's no reason to expensively launch your own forecasting system when you can instead just wait for someone else to do it and then use their insurance rates to do your own forecasting. Which is why the government running satellites it would need to run anyway is much more efficient.
> There's no reason to expensively launch your own forecasting system when you can instead just wait for someone else to do it and then use their insurance rates to do your own forecasting. Indeed but who's going to do that? The US government will, more likely than not, have lost the ability entirely, and Europe... good luck waiting on us. > Which is why the government running satellites it would need to run anyway i…
The European tornado models have been superior to the US models for a long time, and the US has relied on them heavily. Not sure if the European models use the data from those satellites though, probably.
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
DOGE did not exist in 2015. This project was shut down in 2015.
How was it shut down in 2015 when the article claims it has been shut down abruptly just recently? Do you mean it was planned to be shut down in 2015? And where does that come from? If it was planned in 2015, then I agree that's a relevant detail omitted by the article. Although it also doesn't take away completely from the larger context of government cuts and privatization.
Congress voted in 2015 to shut down the program. This should have been zero surprise to anyone.
The hyperbolic comments about project 2025 and war on the courts, and climate change are just so crazy.
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#147But, isn’t European data modeling of hurricanes better than that of the USA? I assume this is only the USA forecasting that is being set back?
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
It just isn't helpful to assume malice. Even for the most ardent, ideological Heartland Institute or Heritage Foundation conservative, there is still a path forward in discussing unintended consequences. Just look at the post-Liberation Day rollback of blanket tariffs. At some point, the consequences of actions are felt. Systems respond even when the firmest hand tries to steady them. At some point you take your hand…
> At some point, the consequences of actions are felt. “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” is a truism from before the Trump era, but it still rings true. That the administration might eventually realize that one of their policies is hurting small business owners, well, that’s cold comfort to someone whose business is struggling or failing now due to unpredictable tariff rates.
It's not a question of "the market." Weather stories very strongly breakthrough in our current media environment. More importantly, weather forecasting and government services related to them enjoy deep and durable bi-partisan support.
It just so happens that the communities most likely to be adversely and quickly impacted by the loss of these data are deep Republican bastions in the South / Gulf Coast.
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#149The problem of important projects surviving political change is a tough one. A lot of these important projects have a single point of failure - who is the president every four years. I wonder how we build institutions and resources resilient to that? I realize privatization is an ugly word, but could some of this stuff be provided by the private sector? Can we make it possible to fund initiatives in a multinational m…
> could some of this stuff be provided by the private sector?
Yes, but the key man problem still exists. For instance, SpaceX could build/operate a network of weather satellites for various nations but the instability of the founder leads to similar issues.
Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
Can't I disagree with someone, but also not support lies about them, even if their supporters are fine with lying? My standard is no lies at all, even for a "good cause".
Sure but check the loaded language of that comment. I was just pointing about double standard of particular POV. Even mirroring the comment so you can address it level above.