Earlier quoted context omitted.
My prediction is that for that to happen we’ll need to figure out a way to measure software quality in the way we can measure a chess game, so that we can use synthetic data to continue improving the models. I don’t think we are anywhere close to doing that.
Not really... If you're an average company you're not concerned about producing perfect software, but optimising for some balance between cost and quality. At some point companies via capitalist forces will naturally realise that it's more productive to not have humans in the loop. A good analogy might be how machines gradually replaced textile workers in the 19th century. Were the machines better? Or was there a was…
Software is also not remotely similar to textiles. A subtle bug in the textile output itself won’t cause potentially millions of dollars in damages, they way a bug in an automated loom itself or software can.
No current technology is anywhere close to being able to automate 50% of PRs on any non trivial application (that’s not close to the same as saying that 50% of PRs merged at your startup happens to have an agent as author). To assume that current models will be able to get near 100% without massive model improvements is just that—an assumption.
My point about synthetic data is that we need orders of magnitude more data with current technology and the only way we will get there is with synthetic data. Which is much much harder to do with software applications than with chess games.
The point isn’t that we need a quantitative measure of software in order for AI to be useful, but that we need a quantitative measure in order for synthetic data to be useful to give us our orders of magnitude more training data.