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Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

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Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#141

Post by danweber »

iskander wrote: post #38
nostromo wrote: post #32

Too bad it doesn't mention if this is better than a human or not. So, I decided to figure it out... 2.9 trillion miles driven in 2009 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/09dectvt/09dectvt.pdf 10.8 million traffic accidents in 2009 http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1103.p... If my math is correct the average american can expect to get in an accident every ~250,000 miles driven, (NYC to LA 90 times) s…

I don't know much about this google project. Can autonomous cars (i) drive on the highway (ii) drive at night (iii) drive in snow or rain?

Driving at night and the rain will probably be where autonomous cars really outshine humans. Lidar systems don't care if you are wearing all black during a night at new moon.

Snow is much harder for the time being. A snow drift falling off a car can make a google car think a cooler has appeared in the road.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#142

Post by zanny »

hbharadwaj wrote: post #92
diggan wrote: post #35

What happen if I have a accident in the car? Will Google pay my damages if it's the car's fault? How quickly will we adapt to the car?

That's the current problem. If it gets into litigation, whose fault is it? Currently, the person who is operating the vehicle is responsible for what the car does.

If it is gcar on gcar, it is googles fault, because they programmed it wrong / poorly.

If it is gcar on car, with the normal car responsible, it is the traditional fault model.

If it is car on gcar and it is gcars fault, Google really fudged it up.

If it is no ones fault (ie, falling rocks on top of the thing) then that falls into the same catagory as natural disaster damage.

I would hope, at least.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#143

Post by powerslave12r »

kevinalexbrown wrote: post #67

The most amazing part is that autonomous cars have completed 300,000 miles at all. Congratulations to the engineering team! Around fifteen years ago, I read as a child with fascination an account in Scientific American about an automated highway project where sensors were to be placed every few feet on the road, and cars would follow them, until a driver retook control at the end. I imagined a future network of roads…

I think trains/metro rails are just outright much more cost effective, given it's not personal transport.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#144

Post by LockeWatts »

imgabe wrote: post #80
paganel wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Autonomous cars are the next big tech that changes the world - I put them up there with computer, Internet, and smart phone. I wouldn't be so sure. Yeah, it might prove to be a very good thing for the United States, but for the rest of world there's first Europe's public transport networks (I'm 31, don't have a driver's license, I live in Europe, I'm doing perfectly fine, thank you), and short of us reaching the Si…

It's going to shift a lot of capital that's currently tied up in owning and maintaining cars into other uses. Right now, most cars are only in use for about 5% of their lifetimes. When everybody owns their own private car, those cars spend a lot of time sitting parked. If those cars could drive around and be used by other people who need them on demand, you'd need a lot fewer cars, as well as a lot less parking.

Though this presents a problem in that we're burning through a car 20 time faster, (100% vs 5%). Most cars people own don't last 20 years, so they won't even last a year in the future? There better be some distributed economic system for providing those cars, because that's a large expense.

A car right now needs regular maintenance as it is every few months, even if it's just changing the oil. That will go from months to days if they're being used 24/7.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#145

Post by blake8086 »

stephengillie wrote: post #98
iskander wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know much about this google project. Can autonomous cars (i) drive on the highway (ii) drive at night (iii) drive in snow or rain?

Could it handle Lombard Street? How would it react to a roadway that's covered in several feet of water due to flooding (and poor road design)? Or sinkholes? One-way streets? Freeways which change directions at different times of day? Dirt roads? (Can we make it autonomously offroad?) How will it react during an earthquake or tornado? How will it react to a bicyclist running a red stoplight and into the car's path, w…

I guess another good question is: "how well do humans handle these things?"

I think the answer is: "not very well."

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#146

Post by danweber »

ridiculous_fish wrote: post #74
nostromo wrote: post #32

Too bad it doesn't mention if this is better than a human or not. So, I decided to figure it out... 2.9 trillion miles driven in 2009 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/09dectvt/09dectvt.pdf 10.8 million traffic accidents in 2009 http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1103.p... If my math is correct the average american can expect to get in an accident every ~250,000 miles driven, (NYC to LA 90 times) s…

I'm guessing that more accidents happen in intersections than on the highway. My understanding is that Google's self-driving cars are currently limited to highways and known-course driving. I don't think it's going to do a very good job driving in San Francisco city streets (but then, who does?)

From what I know it's always known-course. If you were to get a google car today for your commute (you can't), you would first drive to and from work yourself, probably more than once, so it can map everything.

Knowing where there should be a stop sign and traffic lights significantly reduces risks. The computer still needs to be able to learn when new ones appear, of course.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#147

Post by tansey »

stephengillie wrote: post #98
iskander wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know much about this google project. Can autonomous cars (i) drive on the highway (ii) drive at night (iii) drive in snow or rain?

Could it handle Lombard Street? How would it react to a roadway that's covered in several feet of water due to flooding (and poor road design)? Or sinkholes? One-way streets? Freeways which change directions at different times of day? Dirt roads? (Can we make it autonomously offroad?) How will it react during an earthquake or tornado? How will it react to a bicyclist running a red stoplight and into the car's path, w…

The original DARPA Grand Challenge was set in the desert on dirt roads. It's not that difficult to identify the road given some assumptions about how roads work (e.g., it's likely to be a slightly different color or texture)

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#148

Post by danweber »

imgabe wrote: post #80
paganel wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Autonomous cars are the next big tech that changes the world - I put them up there with computer, Internet, and smart phone. I wouldn't be so sure. Yeah, it might prove to be a very good thing for the United States, but for the rest of world there's first Europe's public transport networks (I'm 31, don't have a driver's license, I live in Europe, I'm doing perfectly fine, thank you), and short of us reaching the Si…

It's going to shift a lot of capital that's currently tied up in owning and maintaining cars into other uses. Right now, most cars are only in use for about 5% of their lifetimes. When everybody owns their own private car, those cars spend a lot of time sitting parked. If those cars could drive around and be used by other people who need them on demand, you'd need a lot fewer cars, as well as a lot less parking.

Remember that the "5%" of the time you use your car is probably the same "5%" of the time every one else wants to use their car, i.e. rush hours.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#149

Post by lars512 »

imgabe wrote: post #80
paganel wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Autonomous cars are the next big tech that changes the world - I put them up there with computer, Internet, and smart phone. I wouldn't be so sure. Yeah, it might prove to be a very good thing for the United States, but for the rest of world there's first Europe's public transport networks (I'm 31, don't have a driver's license, I live in Europe, I'm doing perfectly fine, thank you), and short of us reaching the Si…

It's going to shift a lot of capital that's currently tied up in owning and maintaining cars into other uses. Right now, most cars are only in use for about 5% of their lifetimes. When everybody owns their own private car, those cars spend a lot of time sitting parked. If those cars could drive around and be used by other people who need them on demand, you'd need a lot fewer cars, as well as a lot less parking.

The "lot less parking" will do wonders for urban landscapes. When I travel through cities (including my own) and land that could be used for parks or habitation swallowed up by parking space, it seems like an incredible waste.

Re: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident

#150

Post by malkia »

In the future, there must be some communication between vehicles how to minimize the effect of the crash - e.g. if in one vehicles there is no-one, and no hazardous material - then this car somehow should be able to take more of the damage.

Oh, and I would very much like if every vehicle put on the back and front of the car - it's current speed measured by the car.

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