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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

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Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#141

Post by rchaud »

pjmlp wrote: post #41
techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

I am as optimistic as a factory worker about to replaced by robots. Hence why I can't stand such techno-optmism, apparently most folks live in an ideal world free of economics.

Techno-optimism is the domain of people who're confident that they'll be part of the managerial class that gets alerted when other workers are going over their bathroom break allotments.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#142

Post by dragontamer »

mustyoshi wrote: post #137
rqtwteye wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

120 years ago 40% of Americans were farmers, today that number is under 2%. That technical progress resulted in a few companies and farm conglomerates becoming incredibly wealthy. But the benefits that we all received was we didn't have to toil in a field, and we get fresh beef on every corner. The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive.

> The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive.

The wealth gap was growing since 1980. Is the median person better today when the median person cannot afford a college education or a house?

Both of those were easily afforded in the 80s.

Also remember: the average job didn't require a college education back then either. College has become a gatekeeper due to its rising costs and diminishing returns.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#143

Post by aiajsbdbdjxjx »

mustyoshi wrote: post #137
rqtwteye wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

120 years ago 40% of Americans were farmers, today that number is under 2%. That technical progress resulted in a few companies and farm conglomerates becoming incredibly wealthy. But the benefits that we all received was we didn't have to toil in a field, and we get fresh beef on every corner. The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive.

Nobody’s arguing things aren’t better in some ways than the past. But your argument amounts to what is essentially trickle down economics. The median American is getting a marginal improvement - the top .1% American has gotten an astronomical improvement.

The wealth gap increasing is a moral failure of our billionaires. They should take pride in building a better tomorrow for their fellow countrymen. And what we have now is the exact opposite of that.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#144

Post by IshKebab »

mustyoshi wrote: post #137
rqtwteye wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

120 years ago 40% of Americans were farmers, today that number is under 2%. That technical progress resulted in a few companies and farm conglomerates becoming incredibly wealthy. But the benefits that we all received was we didn't have to toil in a field, and we get fresh beef on every corner. The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive.

Yeah the thing is there were better jobs that ex-farmers (or at least their children) could go to. I'm unconvinced that's the case this time round. Especially for unskilled people.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#145

Post by pphysch »

mustyoshi wrote: post #137
rqtwteye wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

120 years ago 40% of Americans were farmers, today that number is under 2%. That technical progress resulted in a few companies and farm conglomerates becoming incredibly wealthy. But the benefits that we all received was we didn't have to toil in a field, and we get fresh beef on every corner. The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive.

96 years ago we there was a massive financial crisis and depression that killed a lot of people and is directly related to the (lack of) national policies of the time.

USA recovered remarkably well, but only because there was a big pivot away from crony capitalism and towards "socialism" under FDR. Big investments in The People, unions, education, infrastructure.

We are going in the former direction right now.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#146

Post by hollerith »

pphysch wrote: post #145
mustyoshi wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

120 years ago 40% of Americans were farmers, today that number is under 2%. That technical progress resulted in a few companies and farm conglomerates becoming incredibly wealthy. But the benefits that we all received was we didn't have to toil in a field, and we get fresh beef on every corner. The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive.

96 years ago we there was a massive financial crisis and depression that killed a lot of people and is directly related to the (lack of) national policies of the time. USA recovered remarkably well, but only because there was a big pivot away from crony capitalism and towards "socialism" under FDR. Big investments in The People, unions, education, infrastructure. We are going in the former direction right now.

Causal relationships can be hard to discern. Some say that FDR's policies extended the downturn to 10 years whereas recovery from previous downturns was much quicker.

(Also, it is not clear to me how any of this is relevant to "The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive".)

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#147

Post by teucris »

hollerith wrote: post #146
pphysch wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

96 years ago we there was a massive financial crisis and depression that killed a lot of people and is directly related to the (lack of) national policies of the time. USA recovered remarkably well, but only because there was a big pivot away from crony capitalism and towards "socialism" under FDR. Big investments in The People, unions, education, infrastructure. We are going in the former direction right now.

Causal relationships can be hard to discern. Some say that FDR's policies extended the downturn to 10 years whereas recovery from previous downturns was much quicker. (Also, it is not clear to me how any of this is relevant to "The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive".)

Can you provide references? This is the first I’ve ever heard of this.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#148

Post by rqtwteye »

hollerith wrote: post #146
pphysch wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

96 years ago we there was a massive financial crisis and depression that killed a lot of people and is directly related to the (lack of) national policies of the time. USA recovered remarkably well, but only because there was a big pivot away from crony capitalism and towards "socialism" under FDR. Big investments in The People, unions, education, infrastructure. We are going in the former direction right now.

Causal relationships can be hard to discern. Some say that FDR's policies extended the downturn to 10 years whereas recovery from previous downturns was much quicker. (Also, it is not clear to me how any of this is relevant to "The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive".)

These are probably the same people who say that environmental regulation is not necessary because companies would clean up pollution anyways.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#149

Post by teucris »

riehwvfbk wrote: post #135
somenameforme wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a simple litmus test for these sort of nearish future dystopias - how long before you have an 'AI plumber' or an 'AI electrician'? I'm not just listing random skilled trades, but listing jobs that are extremely complex, 100% context sensitive in a way that just doesn't generalize well, requires a mixture of high dexterity and high strength, and a million other things. To say nothing of the numerous [oft extre…

We do, however, have computer assisted plumbers, electricians, and other technicians. With nothing more than YouTube one can fix appliances and cars, or do some DIY home improvement, and the projects that are possible are much more involved than they were in the old days. It's very hard to pick up these skills from a book, but if there's a video to walk through the process - the projects become possible. AI-assisted…

I have four books that I got from my dad - one for construction and repairs, one for electrical, one for plumbing, and one for landscaping. They’re in simple English with excellent illustrations. Using those books, I’ve been able to fix/improve pretty much everything in my house for ten years.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#150

Post by rqtwteye »

Isamu wrote: post #130
dingnuts wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the complexity and expense and necessity for expertise of today's farming machines aren't what the OP is talking about, which sounds more like something from Asimov's Caves of Steel

Yes actually robotics is still in its infancy, it needs machine learning advances to become anything like the generalized problem solving worker that farms need, especially small family farms. Source: I have worked on both robots and small farms.

Agreed. But I expect huge progress in the next years/decades. It feels like a lot of things are finally coming together. The same happened in the 90s with the internet or the 2000s with cell phones. People are doing research in a lot of different areas and you see some not so great products that implement them. But then you have a point where all components come together in one really compelling product.
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