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How I got 100% off my train travel

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Re: How I got 100% off my train travel

#141

Post by MathMonkeyMan »

zfnmxt wrote: post #98

> if the baseline chance of delay is 10%, engineering works add 25%, strikes add 35%, and bad weather adds 20%, then when all these problems happen, there's a 90% chance your train will be delayed. What if signal failures "add" 15%? Then all factors combined would mean that there's a 105% chance your train will be delayed! Adding up probabilities like this doesn't make sense. If you simplify these things as independe…

Your comment made me wonder. 65% chance of delay.

    >>> s = 'if the baseline chance of delay is 10%, engineering works add 25%, strikes add 35%, and bad weather adds 20%'
    >>> pb = 0.1
    >>> pe = 0.25
    >>> ps = 0.35
    >>> pw = 0.2
    >>> p = 1 - (1 - pb)*(1 - pe)*(1 - ps)*(1 - pw)
    >>> p
    0.649

Re: How I got 100% off my train travel

#142

Post by jeroenhd »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #88
ikawe wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think by and large this doesn’t play out with trains. American trains tend to be much less frequent, slower, and less comfortable than most European trains. I road a swiss train a couple years ago that was something like 5 minutes late. To me (American) it was “on time” but the conductor came on the PA and apologized. He did make a point to clarify the delay was because they’d been stuck behind an off schedule Germ…

> American trains tend to be much less frequent, slower, and less comfortable than most European trains. Exception: the New York regional rail system. Its on-time stats are comparable to Switzerland. We love to talk about subways and intercity high-speed rail. But in America, it doesn't make sense in most cases without subsidies. Drive-on / drive-off regional rail, on the other hand, trades pursim for pragmatism and…

> But in America, it doesn't make sense in most cases without subsidies

That's the point of public transit, and that's the case everywhere. Also that of roads; roads wouldn't exist without government subsidies because nobody wants to pay toll to exit their driveways.

Of course you'd need to reduce car dependency for any public transit system to make sense, and I don't think Americans care for that. For some reason, "15 minute towns" were turned into some kind of boogeymen to scare conservatives for a while during the last election cycle, which says a lot about the American approach to infrastructure design.

Re: How I got 100% off my train travel

#143

Post by ValentineC »

zfnmxt wrote: post #98

> if the baseline chance of delay is 10%, engineering works add 25%, strikes add 35%, and bad weather adds 20%, then when all these problems happen, there's a 90% chance your train will be delayed. What if signal failures "add" 15%? Then all factors combined would mean that there's a 105% chance your train will be delayed! Adding up probabilities like this doesn't make sense. If you simplify these things as independe…

> As for the article---I think you really undervalue your time and the price of inconvenience. I can see how you can romanticize it as a nice way to get things done, but (dealing with) train delays is hardly distraction free and is full of forced setting changes and (very) shit working environments (like waiting on a platform).

By delays, I think the author meant that they get on a train, then sit in it for ~5 hours, with the option of paying roughly twice the price for first class [1].

As someone who frequently uses their laptop on public transport too, this sounds like a great way to either get things done or pass time.

[1] https://www.avantiwestcoast.co.uk/travel-information/onboard...

Re: How I got 100% off my train travel

#144

Post by sidewndr46 »

I used a much simpler variant of this to get Amazon Prime for free for years. When I needed something off Amazon, I'd just wait until the day before it was going to rain then order it with next day delivery. The couriers at that point in time seemed comically unable to deliver anything if it rained. Once it arrived late, open a case and ask for a month of free Amazon prime. This worked up until they discontinued that as a potential compensation.

Re: How I got 100% off my train travel

#146

Post by alwa »

nobody9999 wrote: post #131
BeeOnRope wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a late slip?

>What is a late slip? I imagine (I don't live in the Chicagoland area, so guessing here, perhaps someone from the 'burbs there can chime in) it's a note from the CTA saying the train was delayed so you can limit your negative exposure when you boss wants to know why you're two hours late. Which is actually much more than NYC does. Although that has its advantages as well. The linked fortune[0] (actually an excerpt fr…

To be fair, NYC’s MTA writes tardy slips too: https://delayverification.mta.info/

I shudder to imagine the working relationship where that’s relevant.

But I very much appreciate the advantages you point out. I felt a little sense of loss when, on work in that city, I noticed that some degree of cellular service had reached the stations…

Re: How I got 100% off my train travel

#147

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

gnarlynarwhal42 wrote: post #122
__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...there's also the kind of housing uncertainty where "maybe I'll have to live in that car for a bit" is often a consideration. You might get away with living on the train for a little while, but a car is a much better bet.

"often" seems slightly hyperbolic...

Maybe I've picked up some bias from the years I spent where my bicycle commute took me through the homeless camp. I'm lucky to have had very few times where I wasn't sure where I'd be sleeping that night, but it's still something that I consider quite often.

Re: How I got 100% off my train travel

#148

Post by Kon-Peki »

nobody9999 wrote: post #131
BeeOnRope wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a late slip?

>What is a late slip? I imagine (I don't live in the Chicagoland area, so guessing here, perhaps someone from the 'burbs there can chime in) it's a note from the CTA saying the train was delayed so you can limit your negative exposure when you boss wants to know why you're two hours late. Which is actually much more than NYC does. Although that has its advantages as well. The linked fortune[0] (actually an excerpt fr…

CTA never did that; I don’t think they could if the wanted to.

Metra did it, I’m 99.9% sure they stopped years ago. But yeah, there would be a person at the platform when the train arrived downtown with a piece of paper saying that the train was delayed. A late slip.

Nowadays, you have real-time location tracking of the train. If it’s late, you can tell your employer what train you’re on and they could verify it. At least to a better degree than with the late slips. Still not perfect. But if you’ve got an employer that would want to verify such things, you’ve got worse problems.

Re: How I got 100% off my train travel

#149

Post by irjustin »

MathMonkeyMan wrote: post #141
zfnmxt wrote: post #98

> if the baseline chance of delay is 10%, engineering works add 25%, strikes add 35%, and bad weather adds 20%, then when all these problems happen, there's a 90% chance your train will be delayed. What if signal failures "add" 15%? Then all factors combined would mean that there's a 105% chance your train will be delayed! Adding up probabilities like this doesn't make sense. If you simplify these things as independe…

Your comment made me wonder. 65% chance of delay. >>> s = 'if the baseline chance of delay is 10%, engineering works add 25%, strikes add 35%, and bad weather adds 20%' >>> pb = 0.1 >>> pe = 0.25 >>> ps = 0.35 >>> pw = 0.2 >>> p = 1 - (1 - pb)*(1 - pe)*(1 - ps)*(1 - pw) >>> p 0.649

Agreed, but also where did those %'s come from? Seems like thin air so it's really all a gamble at this point.
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