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Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#141

Post by bashfulpup »

jimbokun wrote: post #49
only-one1701 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People sincerely think we're < 5 years away from this?

Is there some fundamental constraint keeping it from happening? What cognitive capability do humans have that machines won't be able to replicate in that time frame? Each remaining barrier has been steadily falling.

Continual Learning, it's a barrier that's been there from the very start and we've never had a solution to it.

There are no solutions even at the small scale. We fundamentally don't understand what it is or how to do it.

If you could solve it perfectly on Mnist just scale and then we get AGI.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#142

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

only-one1701 wrote: post #22

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology. I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the document…

OpenAI already started divorce proceedings with their datacenter partnership with Softbank/etc, and it'd hardly be prudent for the world's largest software company NOT to have it's own SOTA AI models.

Nadella might have initially been caught a bit flat footed with the rapid rise of AI, but seems to be managing the situation masterfully.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#143

Post by esskay »

doitLP wrote: post #137
paxys wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

Don’t forget that this model would have a phd in everything and work around the clock

Thats pretty useless for most applications though. If you're hiring a phd level person you dont care that if in addition to being great in contract law they're also great in interior design.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#145

Post by pclmulqdq »

synergy20 wrote: post #113
supriyo-biswas wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At my former employer, there was a team who were very much into resume-driven development and wrote projects in Go even when Java would have been the better alternative considering the overall department and maintenance team expertise, all the while they were informally grumbling about how Go doesn’t have the features they need…

golang is decent and is the only new lang climbed up to 7th in popularity, it does shine at what it's good at

The go and rust crowds both love writing things in their own language for its own sake. Not because it's a good choice. For a large web backend, go is great. For many other things it's terrible.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#147

Post by serjester »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #31

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

Never come close to breaking even? You can now get a GPT-4 class model for 1-2% of what it cost when they originally released it. They’re going to drive this even further down with the amount of CAPEX pouring into AI / data centers. It’s pretty obvious that’s their plan when they serve ChatGPT at a “loss”.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#148

Post by hyperbrainer »

BeetleB wrote: post #84
moelf wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$20k can't get you that many PhD. Even PhD students, who's nominal salary is maybe $3-5k a month, effectively costs double that because of school overhead and other stuff.

> Even PhD students, who's nominal salary is maybe $3-5k a month Do they really get paid that much these days?

That amount is standard at EPFL and ETH, but I don't know about the USA.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#149

Post by burnte »

doitLP wrote: post #137
paxys wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

Don’t forget that this model would have a phd in everything and work around the clock

Well, it works 24/7 as long as you have a human telling it what to do. And checking all the output because these cannot be trusted to work alone.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#150

Post by DebtDeflation »

mvdtnz wrote: post #125
DebtDeflation wrote: post #31

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

Do you have a source for these supposed leaks? Those prices don't sound even remotely credible and I can't find anything on HN in the past week with the keywords "openai leak".

https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/05/openai-reportedly-plans-to...

It points to an article on "The Information" as the source, but that link is paywalled.

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