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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#141

Post by rsynnott »

woodpanel wrote: post #98

How long, until it becomes illegal to come up with these feel-good mood-affiliation "reports" that paint Plug-In Hybrids (i.e. combustion-engines equipped with a supportive battery) as Electric Vehicles?

Many of those plugins will almost never use their combustion engine. Particularly in western Europe where most of these are selling, the average person doesn’t drive far enough per day to exhaust the battery.

So it’s not just feel-good, it’s a real impact.

That said, I don’t think that’s what this report is doing?

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#142

Post by lmz »

netsharc wrote: post #137
teruakohatu wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> BEV manufactured in 2023 and driven for 250,000km would be 27-71 per cent lower than those of equivalent ICE vehicles. (Disclaimer: I know little about cars ...) My country, New Zealand, is awash with new BEV brands, some also offering ICE, from China and South East Asia. Compared with traditional SEA manufacturers (Japan, Korea) that supply most of our new cars, the prices are apparently ridiculously competitive a…

Japan and Korea are not South East Asia [1]... Are there well known SEA car manufacturers, or exporters? Proton of Malaysia is (or was?) probably the biggest, they owned the legendary Lotus brand at one point. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia

Probably just Proton and Perodua. Plenty of manufacturing plants in SEA for the Japanese brands.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#143

Post by huijzer »

danny_codes wrote: post #73
ntSean wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs have an initial higher carbon footprint after production than ICE vehicles due to their battery. However, the initial CO2 footprint is dwarfed when compared to the operational footprint of ICE vehicles. Takes a few years for the scale to tip in EVs favour, to which then there's a substantial difference. > BNEF studied the US, Chinese, Germany, UK and Japanese markets. It determined the lifecycle CO2 emissions of…

Another important factor is that emissions are highly dependent on what you're burning to power the grid. As electrification intensifies those effects become even more pronounced. In 15 years or so I imagine most countries with sane leadership will be mostly running on renewables & nuclear.

> In 15 years or so I imagine most countries with sane leadership will be mostly running on renewables & nuclear.

I think it's good to mention that in Europe, 40% of all the electrical energy usage was renewable in 2024 [1]. This number is higher than it was in 2023, and will increase again in 2025 due to many new solar, wind, and battery installations.

In the US, 19% of all the electrical energy was produced by renewables and 20% by nuclear [2].

[1]: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricit...

[2]: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#144

Post by ben_w »

dinkblam wrote: post #135
thecopy wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As horrible as the 41’000 that die year from cars in the US? Even after billions and billions are spent on their infrastructure? How safe would cities with micro mobility be if we spent the same on them?

> As horrible as the 41’000 that die year from cars in the US? and almost zero percent of that happens in cities.

59% in urban areas:

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/8135...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#145

Post by eftpotrm »

edwcross wrote: post #134
conductr wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not so much of a problem due to the average daily drive being a fraction of range. So long as you can charge at home, city life is fine for electric cars.

Most countries still do not mandate that new apartments include charging ports for parking spots. So densely-populated areas will still be plagued with non-EC compatible buildings for decades to come. That's what "city life" mean in several countries.

Agreed, but they're not that complex to retrofit to a parking space. I can foresee a future where each space has a port and an account card reader - they'd make the buildings more valuable, the supplier to that space has a basically guaranteed income stream, and the government has an easy emissions reduction. Wins all round, so why wouldn't it happen?

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#147

Post by eftpotrm »

p0w3n3d wrote: post #114

In my city you cannot charge your car inside the underground garage. No one will build the required facility to ease electric car fire extinguishing. Therefore the buildings will default to deny.

That's incredibly short-sighted, not least because the number of fires per vehicle is orders of magnitude higher for combustion vehicles. I'd be astonished if that made actuarial sense if actually investigated.

I've seen and used underground car chargers in multiple European cities. They're definitely viable.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#148

Post by ben_w »

jppope wrote: post #27
toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But I repeat myself, apologies to Twain Downhill = good, momentum is unstoppable, nothing stops the electrification transition, we’re simply arguing time horizon now; China will be the clean energy and mobility manufacturer to the world. (50% of car sales in China in 2024 were battery electric or plug in hybrid)

I feel most people still don't realize that China is facing a demographic crisis. If their demographics matched the United States sure, but its unlikely china will be leading many of these future technological situations. Don't take me the wrong way, they have a great opportunity in front of them but just the resources required to take care of their elderly is going to suck up a pretty hefty amount of resources.

China is also authoritarian, has central planning, and deliberately had a one-child policy for a while to prevent the opposite problem.

I'm not saying this would be a pleasant or fun experience for those involved, but I am saying I wouldn't bet against China even on demographics.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#149

Post by devnullbrain »

idontwantthis wrote: post #30
xnx wrote: post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

I want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?

This is also a big problem for multi-modal commuting. Do I really want to lock up my bike in a location that screams 'the owner won't be back for 9 hours', knowing police won't investigate bike theft?

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#150

Post by moffkalast »

VladStanimir wrote: post #107
myroon5 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, order of magnitude more electric micromobility vehicles than electric cars: https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-280-million-electric-...

The problem with electric cars is charging infrastructure in cites. An electric bike or scooter can be brought indoors to charge.

Solar freakin' parking lot roofs.
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