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Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

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Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#141

Post by JohnBooty »

queuebert wrote: post #74
kennysoona wrote: post #39

I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…

We fought a literal civil war and bounced back. We've had multiple presidents assassinated but still had continuity of power. I doubt the U.S. is going anywhere anytime soon except maybe down a couple slots on the world's largest economies lists, and that's soley due to population growth. Some of us who are optimistic believe that the uniqueness of the U.S. lies in its favorable environment for innovation (e.g. YC),…

    the uniqueness of the U.S. lies in its favorable environment for innovation
Our ability to attract talent from all over the world is a large part of this.

The Trump administration is doing serious damage to that ability on several fronts.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#142

Post by JohnBooty »

nabla9 wrote: post #125
queuebert wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We fought a literal civil war and bounced back. We've had multiple presidents assassinated but still had continuity of power. I doubt the U.S. is going anywhere anytime soon except maybe down a couple slots on the world's largest economies lists, and that's soley due to population growth. Some of us who are optimistic believe that the uniqueness of the U.S. lies in its favorable environment for innovation (e.g. YC),…

Continuity of power and government is not what people think it is. The government can continue even if the US stops being a democracy, citizens lose their basic rights (like they did Jim Crows era), or have a civil war without continuity of government breaking. The US can smoothly slide into Hungary, then Singapore (parliamentary republics only in the name), or more crash into South American Banana Rebublic with some…

I think we're going to become Russia, honestly. Or probably even more accurately we're just going to revert to the way we were during the Gilded Age. Oligarchy time.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#143

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

JohnBooty wrote: post #140
throw0101b wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who is going to replace US? No one. And everyone. That's the point. There will be no on 'policing' things (even imperfectly), and so anyone who wants to do a power grab will make an attempt. "Those in positions of power do what their power permits, while the weak have no choice but to accept it." — Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War , 5.89

There will be no one 'policing' things (even imperfectly) Pirates (like actual sea pirates, not kids downloading warez) definitely look forward to this. Although, that's a specific part of the "world policing" role that I can see China stepping into. They certainly have the manpower and the shipbuilding capacity, and they certainly have the incentive to protect international shipping so they can sell their goods ever…

> I don't think China (yet) wants any part of funding proxy wars

IDK, I could see China funding a proxy war in Ukraine, any time soon.

Just not in a good way, so to speak.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#144

Post by JohnBooty »

vlan0 wrote: post #9
jimkleiber wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the people are capable, given the right environment. I think what destroys it is not letting people in Congress write laws in relative secrecy. When the most powerful, including the political parties, can monitor how every Congress person votes in committee, they can micro-manage and micro-terrorize them into doing what they want. Let them deliberate without us watching over their shoulders (because it's most…

Bernie said it best. Get money out of politics. Full stop.

I think the only way to do this is to pay members of Congress extremely generous salaries and then have a large agency whose only job is to monitor their finances like a swarm of starving animals with zero tolerance for outside influence. If any one of these motherfuckers or their neighbor or third cousin accepts so much as a fucking cup of coffee from a lobbyist they can forfeit it all, go to prison for ten years, and pay their salary back.

Pay them each a million bucks a year, for fuck's sake. That's $535 million dollars -- but remember we immediately get a lot of that back in taxes. Fuck, round it up to a billion dollars to include the cost of the agency to watch them. A whole team for each congress-critter. Half of the salaries go into escrow and the escrow money gets paid out after they leave office. And they can't work for 5 years after they leave office -- none of that indirect bribery where "cooperative" congresspeople get cushy jobs at the companies they helped during their tenure on capitol hill.

That's still only like a tenth of a percent of the total US Government budget.

Anybody who thinks that this won't improve the functioning of our government by at least 0.14% is welcome to tell me why.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#145

Post by JohnBooty »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #143
JohnBooty wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be no one 'policing' things (even imperfectly) Pirates (like actual sea pirates, not kids downloading warez) definitely look forward to this. Although, that's a specific part of the "world policing" role that I can see China stepping into. They certainly have the manpower and the shipbuilding capacity, and they certainly have the incentive to protect international shipping so they can sell their goods ever…

> I don't think China (yet) wants any part of funding proxy wars IDK, I could see China funding a proxy war in Ukraine, any time soon. Just not in a good way, so to speak.

For the forseeable future I think China mostly wants to stay as neutral as possible and make as much money as possible by selling as much crap as possible to as many countries as possible.

I don't think they want the US as an enemy. It's not good business for them.

I have a 100% unsupported belief that 100% of the public messaging from all sides regarding Taiwan is complete BS. I think that behind closed doors, all parties (except maybe Taiwan themselves) are working out a deal so that Taiwan winds up back in China's hands in the next 10-15 years without a war and everybody gets to save some face. I think that the CHIPS act, TSMC foundries on US soil, etc are all part of this process. It is the most mutually beneficial situation for the US and China: they get Taiwan; we get non-traumatic continuity for our chip supplies, everybody gets to save face, etc. (I'm not endorsing it or decrying it or even touching the morality or lack thereof)

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#146

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

JohnBooty wrote: post #145
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think China (yet) wants any part of funding proxy wars IDK, I could see China funding a proxy war in Ukraine, any time soon. Just not in a good way, so to speak.

For the forseeable future I think China mostly wants to stay as neutral as possible and make as much money as possible by selling as much crap as possible to as many countries as possible. I don't think they want the US as an enemy. It's not good business for them. I have a 100% unsupported belief that 100% of the public messaging from all sides regarding Taiwan is complete BS. I think that behind closed doors, all p…

> For the forseeable future I think China mostly wants to stay as neutral as possible and make as much money as possible by selling

I think that you're probably correct, but that goal will be in tension with the corollary "... And Russia next door is buying lots of raw materials and miliary hardware, even at an above-market price".

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#147

Post by JohnBooty »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #146
JohnBooty wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the forseeable future I think China mostly wants to stay as neutral as possible and make as much money as possible by selling as much crap as possible to as many countries as possible. I don't think they want the US as an enemy. It's not good business for them. I have a 100% unsupported belief that 100% of the public messaging from all sides regarding Taiwan is complete BS. I think that behind closed doors, all p…

> For the forseeable future I think China mostly wants to stay as neutral as possible and make as much money as possible by selling I think that you're probably correct, but that goal will be in tension with the corollary "... And Russia next door is buying lots of raw materials and miliary hardware, even at an above-market price".

Yeah, I think they're going to play a classical "make money from both sides" role. They'll titrate the amount of commerce they do with all parties so that everybody is equally unhappy but equally dependent on China.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#148

Post by iJohnDoe »

ben_w wrote: post #133
pseudalopex wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's illogical to call to "Make America Great Again " while also claiming there's no decline. The logic is undiminished potential hobbled by weak leaders, sinister cabals, and their enablers.

What, the cabinet? :P But seriously, even last time, with 2016's MAGA slogans including "drain the swamp", there's a gap between "great but we could be better if not for them " and the implicit absent greatness of the initials forming MAGA.

Which is insane when people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, and Doug Collins, among others, are not considered as "drain the swamp".

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#149

Post by ben_w »

iJohnDoe wrote: post #148
ben_w wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What, the cabinet? :P But seriously, even last time, with 2016's MAGA slogans including "drain the swamp", there's a gap between "great but we could be better if not for them " and the implicit absent greatness of the initials forming MAGA.

Which is insane when people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, and Doug Collins, among others, are not considered as "drain the swamp".

Given what I've seen of Greene, I feel I am better off not knowing who Doug Collins is, and only vaguely recognising Jim Jordan and that Nunes has something to do with cows.

The USA may be happy to cast psychic damage on itself, I wish to only learn what I must to defend myself from the nonsense that spills outside your borders. :)

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#150

Post by tim333 »

kennysoona wrote: post #39

I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…

The US isn't doing bad but it's had a relative decline because the rest of the world is advancing. In the 1950s much of the world was wrecked from WW2 and socialism didn't do much for India and China. Now they are mostly doing quite well.

In the cultural revolution China sent all it's educated out to the fields or worse. Now:

>China awarded 1.38 million engineering bachelor’s degrees in 2020. The comparable American number is 197,000 https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/a-tale-of-two-talents/

That's China advance, not a US decline.

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