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Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov

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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#141

Post by heikkilevanto »

VierScar wrote: post #137
renjimen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).

I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?

Uncertain observations, I'm sure

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#143

Post by [deleted] »

VierScar wrote: post #137
renjimen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).

I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?

[deleted]

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#144

Post by ars »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #101
ddahlen wrote: post #84

I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…

If in 2032 an impact did occur, how much time before that impact would be able to ascertain over 50% probability of impact? hypothetically. That is, does the certainty increase steadily or non-linearly over time? Does near certainty of an impact occur from measurements taken just minutes before the impact, or hours, days, years?

We would see it years before, and we would know with certainty years before.

If the object really looked like it might impact I'm sure someone would get time on a powerful telescope to lock in the orbit.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#145

Post by bunabhucan »

Willingham wrote: post #117
elric wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think I understand your comment. The yield of nukes is of no consequence if they're not being used, so I don't think the comparison stands?

My point is, we have used nukes, so we know exactly what the worst case scenario is, and that’s about 20-50 million lives(hitting Tokyo or NYC). Equal to the number of deaths during the Spanish flu or half of world war 2. I think the comparison helps us understand what the risk truly is. I think the world would panic and likely loose more lives through chaos than the actual impact.

3.8m for NYC , 3.1m for Tokyo

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=8000&lat=40.72422&ln...

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=8000&lat=35.6889853&...

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#146

Post by mturmon »

rob74 wrote: post #120
sharpshadow wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. It’s a crucial step for our civilisation to be able to protect earth from any incoming dangers be it asteroids or Umuamua type objects. There must be a global effort with all countries to build such a system.

Good luck with that... currently we are failing to muster a global effort for tackling climate change, which is a much more pressing issue than an asteroid which may or may not hit us. I know https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_Look_Up is satirical, but reality often outdoes satire, so I wouldn't be surprised if things would play out exactly like in that movie...

This pessimism has its place, but in this specific case, it is not accurate.

Congress did decide that NEO's are an important problem, and eventually money was appropriated to address it, and a technical solution to the detection problem has been found. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NEO_Surveyor)

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#147

Post by timewizard »

freen wrote: post #132
timewizard wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is open doubt as to whether climate change, as presented, is truly a near-term existential issue. There is no doubt that an asteroid hitting earth is.

There is an open doubt whether a fully functional coffee machine is currently orbiting Venus, however one of these hypotheses is different than the other. Hint: expertise matters, evidence matters, and in a field where buildings/laws/fields of study get named after successful contrarians, a long streak of effectively unanimous consensus should not be undervalued.

The coffee machine has no implications on my current life span. It may be true, but who would waste their time caring about this?

Show me the /unanimous/ consensus that this is an immediate /existential/ issue. I don't believe such a thing exists. When attempting to understand the difference between those who care about an asteroid and climate change, which was the question, this is the critical point to concern yourself with.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#148

Post by dzdt »

ddahlen wrote: post #84

I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…

I wonder if we have a chance to catch it still on radar this pass. I know Arecibo used to do that and is now sadly gone, but Goldstone also has capability. Anyone know more?

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#149

Post by neilv »

Maybe it will start climbing in probability, giving us a chance to reflect, and to improve our ways.

Since, if we're already doing Nazi salutes at a US Presidential inauguration, less than 100 years after we'd learned that Nazis are pure evil, then I'd understand if some higher power was ready to hit the reset button. Maybe tardigrades would evolve better.

(ProTip: Be sure to send a second asteroid, to Mars, ahead of the Nazi escape ship.)

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#150

Post by zacharycohn »

VierScar wrote: post #137
renjimen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).

I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?

Right - we only got a short glimpse of it, not enough to get a high confidence of its trajectory.
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