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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

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Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#141

Post by toomuchtodo »

hardwaresofton wrote: post #122
dcminter wrote: post #10

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

Agree with all your points, just wanted to note: > But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group This miracle is probably just hard work in disguise -- dang et al. HN also has a self-censorship bias and some self-enforcement, but mostly not an abrasive kind -- people (mostly) gently remind each other of the rules, and sometimes viciously downvote comments that are no…

HN and Dan’s work are arguably worth more than the VC part of YC. The VC side plays the capital musical chairs game (selling the equity to a greater fool before the music stops), this is the valuable output from that.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#142

Post by high_na_euv »

itake wrote: post #107
aqme28 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was the second engineer (series A) at a company that IPO’d at a unicorn valuation. By all rights that’s a great outcome. I made about as much in that exit as I would have if I were just at a FAANG instead

This tracks. I think the real value employees get is riding the rocketship in their career. Early engineers often have first dibs on higher level roles, like CTO or director over people that join late. Your initial grant might not be great, but being director at such a company is huge

What skills precisely you think about when it comes to an early engineer, but not founder/business person?

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#143

Post by kijin »

dkdbejwi383 wrote: post #103
KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

I've had one successful exit as an engineer. Made enough for a (very) fancy dinner for two, or a short city break. Just a fun bit of pocket money, essentially. Founders made more than I'll probably earn in a lifetime.

Usually, the only engineer who has any chance of making a significant amount of money is the technical co-founder, often called the CTO.

The rest of the money belongs to the MBAs and the bankers. It's always been their money, it will always be theirs.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#144

Post by cushychicken »

clumsysmurf wrote: post #125
yason wrote: post #43

I'd say starting a company to make something people want in order to sell it for money is still relevant. It's just that you're looking at working quietly, humbly, but perseverantly for the next 25 years, slowly growing the business and balancing the risks and opportunities along the way. You won't be looking for an "exit" because you want to take care of the company you built. That's a very different story from what…

> you're looking at working quietly, humbly, but perseverantly for the next 25 years > That never was sustainable, I think Another aspect with this being (un)sustainable is lack of affordable healthcare. I bet many people would take more risks if they didn't have to worry about this aspect of their lives.

The Swedes sure seem to think so. Per capita Swedish entrepreneurship is like 7x the rest of the euro zone, and they’re convinced that it’s that aspect of the social safety net that help prop up that high level of personal risk taking.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#145

Post by rUsHeYaFuBu »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #126
rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that's not really saying anything if the market is intended to work by the forces of the invisible hand. If it is, the it is working as intended.

If you believe that, you're effectively believing that a runaway system of feedback loops is right by definition. But that's basically just a religion that worships a non-personified deity.

You can tell that to the free market faithful.

I was merely pointing out that saying the market 'just works' instead of it 'working as intended' logically doesn't add anything, because in the free market concept it is meant to to "just work", which implies that is what it is intended to do.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#146

Post by dcminter »

hardwaresofton wrote: post #122
dcminter wrote: post #10

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

Agree with all your points, just wanted to note: > But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group This miracle is probably just hard work in disguise -- dang et al. HN also has a self-censorship bias and some self-enforcement, but mostly not an abrasive kind -- people (mostly) gently remind each other of the rules, and sometimes viciously downvote comments that are no…

Oh I entirely concur; I think there's a team of sorts, not just Dan, but I'm sure the gentle steering is a huge part of the reason things are still on course.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-silicon-valley/th...

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#147

Post by robertlagrant »

kijin wrote: post #143
dkdbejwi383 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had one successful exit as an engineer. Made enough for a (very) fancy dinner for two, or a short city break. Just a fun bit of pocket money, essentially. Founders made more than I'll probably earn in a lifetime.

Usually, the only engineer who has any chance of making a significant amount of money is the technical co-founder, often called the CTO. The rest of the money belongs to the MBAs and the bankers. It's always been their money, it will always be theirs.

Yes, that's probably true. Investors, or people who take a risk, get the payoff from the risk. If you join as a salaried person, you're taking zero risk (other than that you might need to get another job if the place folds, but then all the money's gone anyway), as you're just getting paid a salary each month regardless of how the company's doing, so you don't get an outsized reward.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#149

Post by Kye »

diggan wrote: post #38
KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

> I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory I wouldn't say I'm an old-timer by any metrics, but even back in 2012 when I first discovered and joined HN, I remember it was pretty clear in the community (and people I spoke to around me) you shouldn't go to work at a startup if you were looking for "a lot + safe" money. Sure, you could belong to the 0.001% and work on the n…

I saw the same posts you did, but how many people actually listened? How many, instead, came back later asking how to salvage a situation that didn't match the dream?

There are always cooler heads raising alarms on these booms. What turns them into bubbles is the inflection point where there are more people coming for the dream than for the thing that motivates people who understand the risks and know the statistics.

I seem to remember 2015 or near it as that inflection point. Tech media went from worrying about the steady march of unicorns to not talking much about valuations.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#150

Post by ragnot »

itake wrote: post #107
aqme28 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was the second engineer (series A) at a company that IPO’d at a unicorn valuation. By all rights that’s a great outcome. I made about as much in that exit as I would have if I were just at a FAANG instead

This tracks. I think the real value employees get is riding the rocketship in their career. Early engineers often have first dibs on higher level roles, like CTO or director over people that join late. Your initial grant might not be great, but being director at such a company is huge

You'll find that outside the startup, the director/vp/cto title doesn't translate. Larger companies will often write you off as being "not experienced" enough which is often code for "you don't look old enough for this position". Unlike engineering and the startup world, big companies want you to look the part not just know the part.
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