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More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

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141–150 of 640 posts

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whats the difference between "idiots have to be scammed" vs "people who can't fend off a knife fighter while en route to the grocery store have to be stabbed"? Some people are gullible, or trusting. This doesn't mean they don't have other gifts, or most of all good intentions. Applying an evolutionary pressure against people who can't fend off knife attackers is ultimately useless for human wellbeing The real issue i…

>Whats the difference between "idiots have to be scammed" vs "people who can't fend off a knife fighter while en route to the grocery store have to be stabbed"? Consent.

You're missing a key word: informed consent. Both are lacking that.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#142

At one point I knew I could beat the market with l33t software skills. I was wrong and only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

> only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

An education in finance is expensive, not matter where you get it from.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whats the difference between "idiots have to be scammed" vs "people who can't fend off a knife fighter while en route to the grocery store have to be stabbed"? Some people are gullible, or trusting. This doesn't mean they don't have other gifts, or most of all good intentions. Applying an evolutionary pressure against people who can't fend off knife attackers is ultimately useless for human wellbeing The real issue i…

There’s obviously a huge difference between a scam and a violent attack. The person being scammed doesn’t ever lose their agency and willingly participates. That’s very different from a knife attack, where the victim would leave at every moment if possible.

Informed consent is missing in both cases.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#144
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have net managed to beat the market. My estimate is that I've earned approximately $3/hour for the time I've spent doing so. And I was trading in such thinly traded options that it wasn't a matter of "scaling up" - I was literally only able to make money because I was picking up the pennies nobody else cared about. (And/or trading on events that were were rare, obvious, and in an area I understood, which also doesn…

Did you consider writing a bot?

Automation carries… risks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knight_Capital_Group

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#145
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it's true, you do need an idea. But good ideas aren't hard to come by when you understand basic risk management. Take for example recent events. Say your idea is if this election goes one way, it's neutral/slightly bearish for TSLA, if it goes the other way it's wildly bullish for TSLA. Since one possibility isn't going to result in much movement you ignore it. For the other one you structure some options trades…

You also need an idea that's somehow different from the rest of the market. (It's the difference of opinion/point of view that makes a market.) If everyone has the exact same expectations as you, no one is going to offer you the options trade structure at a price that would be profitable for you.

Of course, but at the scale of a responsible retail options gambler (think a high six to low seven figure bankroll, properly managed), you can pretty reliably find people willing to take the other side of your seeming long shot. The temptation to pick up pennies on the train tracks is ever present.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#146
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends. If the fundamentals are already good, they're priced in, you probably have little upside, even long term. Maybe you'll just match the market. You have to think the fundamentals will improve over time more than the market expects to beat the market. Long term, I think economics has more to do with market performance. Stocks rise as the money supply expands and capital has no where else to go.

You can't beat the market but you don't need to. The ordinary returns of GDP growth are pretty good. The free money has definitely been screwing with GDP as a base. I'm still unclear on why the Fed would lower interest rates when the market is fine, the GDP is fine, and inflation is still slightly above baseline 2%. I know everyone is yelling for the punch bowl to come back but now would be a good time to pay down so…

> You can't beat the market but you don't need to.

You can, it's just difficult. Plenty of (mostly professional) traders and hedge funds do. The knowledge gap between amateurs and pros is just massive, as is the time they have to monitor their holdings.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#147

At one point I knew I could beat the market with l33t software skills. I was wrong and only realized it after donating about 3k to Wall Street.

Every so often I receive commercially sensitive information about my company which I'm not allowed to disclose before it's formally communicated to the stock market. For fun, I try to predict what impact it'll have on the share price (though of course I can't actually trade!) I can successfully predict the direction of the share price movement 50% of the time and successfully predict the magnitude of the share price…

But in what time frame, can you predict that?

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#148
post #37
post #5

Lot of people are becoming more knowledgable and skillful. But purpose is the missing ingredient. Without purpose or a motivator in life people end up getting trapped in mindless rituals. It keeps the reward circuitry in the brain from decaying.

Child rearing is a possible solution—it is our evolutionary “purpose” to reproduce, after all, and most people in the developed world today aren’t doing it.

>Child rearing is a possible solution—it is our evolutionary “purpose” to reproduce, after all, and most people in the developed world today aren’t doing it.

I doubt it, that's because to most people it does not feel purposeful, it's a chore. Most people who say it's purposeful are generally the most vocal ones, and I suspect the minority.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#149

I remember a controversial scamming figure in Italy that made millions by selling lucky numbers for lotteries or exploiting people's stupidity to part them with their life savings. Her motto was "idiots _have_ to be scammed". While this figure was morally and ethically deplorable, it always made me think how her motto essentially implied that there was an element of pure natural selection happening and she saw hersel…

I fail to notice anything natural about this selection.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#150

What’s old is new again. If you worked in a tech office in the late 90’s, every other guy had Ameritrade or similar up in a window. It was the gaming/porn you could get away with at work. Dot com roasted them all.

As did 2008. A bull market is a hell of a drug, as it were. And yes, we're probably headed for another big correction in the near to medium term future.
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