141–150 of 163 posts
Bitcoin as a digital store of value is fine. It makes sense to store money in something digital and secure to hedge against local instabilities in currencies, governments etc. People store money in it because it currently secure and it been battle tested, nobody has been able to hack it. However, I am concerned about the security model on a 5-10+ year perspective. Miners secure the blockchain and get paid for it in b…
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Devils advocate / steel man reply: isn't that what all currencies are? Why does the Federal Reserve US dollar have value? Because people trust other smart people who say they've done the work and trust other smart people who work for the Federal Reserve. Money is a thing people agree upon as a medium of exchange. It is not value itself. Value is the people, places, and things that make up the actual economy. Bitcoin…
USD has value because there are things people need to pay for that can only be paid for with USD.
Bitcoin as a digital store of value is fine. It makes sense to store money in something digital and secure to hedge against local instabilities in currencies, governments etc. People store money in it because it currently secure and it been battle tested, nobody has been able to hack it. However, I am concerned about the security model on a 5-10+ year perspective. Miners secure the blockchain and get paid for it in b…
It will not. This issue was talked as far as 2012.
Bitcoin as a digital store of value is fine. It makes sense to store money in something digital and secure to hedge against local instabilities in currencies, governments etc. People store money in it because it currently secure and it been battle tested, nobody has been able to hack it. However, I am concerned about the security model on a 5-10+ year perspective. Miners secure the blockchain and get paid for it in b…
> Bitcoin as a digital store of value is fine. It is not. It has multiple >70% drawdowns over the last ~decade: * https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/price-drawdown During the 1930s US stock market crash, things went down 90% and, a century later, has never been that bad. Bitcoin has had multiple Great Depression equivalent drops in one-tenth the time. Something that is a good store of value should not be volatile:…
If it mostly goes up, it's still a good store of value, even if the volatility is high.
So far it outperformed every fiat currency on the planet.
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Training LLMs is not the only thing people are trying. They dominate the public attention right now but there are people everywhere trying all kinds of approaches. Here's one from IBM: https://research.ibm.com/topics/neuro-symbolic-ai First sentence: "We see Neuro-symbolic AI as a pathway to achieve artificial general intelligence"
I agree some people are doing novel work, but that’s a long way from “Everyone”.
You said you don't believe LLMs are capable of ever getting there, so I offered a link showing people are trying other things as well. My point was never "Everyone is doing novel, non-LLM work towards AGI".
But everyone is in fact trying to get to AGI:
Google: https://www.fastcompany.com/91233846/noam-shazeer-back-at-go... https://deepmind.google/research/publications/66938/
Microsoft: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/bing/do-more-with-ai/artific...
Meta: https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-...
Salesforce: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2023/09/12/salesfo...
Not to mention obvious suspects (OpenAI, Anthropic etc). Just because you think it won't work doesn't mean they're not trying. Everyone is trying to get to AGI.
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I agree some people are doing novel work, but that’s a long way from “Everyone”.
Everyone is trying to get to AGI, and yes mostly through LLMs for now. You said you don't believe LLMs are capable of ever getting there, so I offered a link showing people are trying other things as well. My point was never "Everyone is doing novel, non-LLM work towards AGI". But everyone is in fact trying to get to AGI: Google: https://www.fastcompany.com/91233846/noam-shazeer-back-at-go... https://deepmind.google/…
Your other examples are giant companies with many focus who can trivially pay lip service to fundamental research without spending any particular effort. Take your link:
“Benioff outlined four waves of enterprise AI, the first two of which are currently real, available, and shipping:
Predictive
Generative
Autonomous and agents
Artificial general intelligence”
First HN submission: Feb 3 2009 (0 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=463793
One of the comments "I've been watching the price of BTC rise pretty steadily in the last few days but I can't bring myself to believe that this price range is in any way sustainable. $4 per bitcoin? ..."
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Everyone is trying to get to AGI, and yes mostly through LLMs for now. You said you don't believe LLMs are capable of ever getting there, so I offered a link showing people are trying other things as well. My point was never "Everyone is doing novel, non-LLM work towards AGI". But everyone is in fact trying to get to AGI: Google: https://www.fastcompany.com/91233846/noam-shazeer-back-at-go... https://deepmind.google/…
OpenAI has specifically said LLM’s aren’t a path to AGI, though they think they have utility in understanding how society can and should interact with a potential AGI, especially from a policy perspective. Your other examples are giant companies with many focus who can trivially pay lip service to fundamental research without spending any particular effort. Take your link: “Benioff outlined four waves of enterprise A…