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OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

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Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#141

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

no, it doesn't need to be self aware, it just needs to take your job.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#145
post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

I don't think we've even started to get the most value out of current gen LLMs. For starters very few people are even looking at sampling which is a major part of the model performance. The theory behind these models so aggressively lags the engineering that I suspect there are many major improvements to be found just by understanding a bit more about what these models are really doing and making re-designs based on…

> I've started to realize that many people have been holding on of building things waiting for "that next big update"

I’ve noticed this too — I’ve been calling it intellectual deflation. By analogy, why spend now when it may be cheaper in a month? Why do the work now, when it will be easier in a month?

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#146
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your definition is off from what most people would define AGI as. Generally, it means being able to think and reason at a human level for a multitude/all tasks or jobs. "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a theoretical form of artificial intelligence that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level comparable to that of a human being." A…

> than a self aware entity. What does this mean? If I have a blind, deaf, paralyzed person, who could only communicate through text, what would the signs be that they were self aware? Is this more of a feedback loop problem? If I let the LLM run in a loop, and tell it it's talking to itself, would that be approaching "self aware"?

Being aware of its own limitations, for example. Or being aware of how its utterances may come across to its interlocutor.

(And by limitations I don’t mean “sorry, I’m not allowed to help you with this dangerous/contentious topic”.)

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#147

A few important things to remember here: The best engineering minds have been focused on scaling transformer pre and post training for the last three years because they had good reason to believe it would work, and it has up until now. Progress has been measured against benchmarks which are / were largely solvable with scale. There is another emerging paradigm which is still small(er) scale but showing remarkable res…

Once we've scraped the internet of its data, we need more data. Robots can take in video/audio data 24/7 and can be placed in your house to record this data by offering services like cooking/cleaning/folding laundry. Yeah, I'll pay $20k to have you record everything that happens in my house if I can stop doing dishes for five years!

There's plenty of video content being uploaded and streamed everyday, i find it hard to believe the more data will really change something, excluding very specialized tasks.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of these hacks do sound like we are at that diminishing return point.

It all just sounds to me like we're back at expert systems. Doesn't bode well...

Honest question, how would you expect systems to get external knowledge etc without tools like the OP is suggesting?

Action oriented through self exploration? What is your thought for how these systems integrate with the existing world?

Why does the OP's suggested mode of integration make you think of those older systems?

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#149

not long ago these people would have you believe that a next word predictor trained on reddit posts would somehow lead to artificial general superintelligence

I don't understand why you'd be so dismissive about this. It's looking less likely that it'll end up happening, but is it any less believable than getting general intelligence by training a blob of meat?

This is a bad comparison. Intelligence didn't appear in some human brain. Intelligence appeared in a planetary ecosystem.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#150

I wonder how much this has to do with a fluency plateau. Up to a certain point, a conditional fluency stores knowledge, in the sense that semantically correct sentences are more likely to be fluent… but we may have tapped out in that regard. LLMs have solved language very well, but to get beyond that has seemed, thus far, to require RLHF, with all the attendant negatives.

Modeled language, maybe.
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