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China's manufacturers are going broke

economist.com

141–150 of 229 posts

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#141
post #19

It feels like The Economist and other Western oligarch media have been saying that China is going to collapse "next week" for decades. Almost like they have some sort of anti-reality agenda.

The reality of China is that their GDP stats are so systematically faked and so clearly don't add up that nobody actually knows whether China is economically healthy, not even Xi Jinping. In such a scenario, China could collapse at any time, and past performance is not a predictor of future results .

> GDP stats are so systematically faked

At a macro-level, Chinese federal statistics are decently trustworthy in the 2020s, and there is enough transnational trade and dealflow that egregious tampering can and would be caught, and is very damaging.

> China could collapse at any time

There is a difference between stagnant/slowing growth (which is what is happening) and "collapse" (nowhere near that level).

Nor would you want to wish a Chinese "collapse".

It's because of rhetoric like yours that other Chinese people automatically dismiss policymakers abroad who are trying to push for reforms for an economically stabler China - which itself requires healthy engagement with the world.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still doesn't work. 1.) Internal consumer demand for China has collapsed, due to real estate debt overhang, local government debt overhang, increasing job loss, and incoming and increasing college graduates. It's estimated that 80% of this year's current graduates are jobless. 2.) External demand for China has been decreasing, 3.5T total export in 2022, only 3.3T in 2023. probably below 3T this year. Due to geopoliti…

Work what? I think Ctrl+F China + collapse arguments still doesn't work. 1) Consumption is "sluggish", i.e. it's small positive growth instead of large precovid positive growth. It's not negative decline let alone collapse. Get off the FLG. Employment rate steady, including new grads at 20% accounting for those in school and not looking for work (i.e. the Chinese tertiary way), 40%-50% for graduate cohorts who takes…

>Who said EV was suppose to rescue PRC economy?

the gov is heavily investing & publicizing "New productive forces"[] that include "new energy vehicles"

[]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_productive_forces

[]:https://www.miit.gov.cn/zwgk/zcwj/wjfb/yj/art/2024/art_ad15b...

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#143
post #85
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US government has put a lot of effort into isolating China from the Phillippines. It's just statecraft and covert influence campaigns, nothing to do with the moral supremacy of anti-imperialism. Moralizing arguments such as this one are FUD.

So tensions between China and the Philippines have nothing to do with China's actions and are just the U.S. performing a psyop?

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Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#144
post #133
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take a look at a map of US bases around China and then try to find any Chinese bases near the US, and you’ll understand who’s “militarist” and who isn’t.

That's evidence of having more allies than China, not evidence of being more militaristic than China.

US: Has a gazillion military bases around the world and encircling China.

Commenter: "That's totally not evidence of being more militaristic, US just has more friends"

You just contradicted yourself. Having more military bases IS being militaristic.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#145
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In VN, Chinese manufacturers tend to compete directly with SK and JP FDI, so the RoI isn't too hot, and Chinese manufacturers face the same hurdles American manufacturers faced when entering China (eg. Forced JVs, ToTs, etc)

VN - Vietnam SK - South Korea JP - Japan FDI - Foreign Direct Investment RoI - Return on Investment JV - Joint Venture ToT - Transfer of Technology ?

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Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#146
post #133
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take a look at a map of US bases around China and then try to find any Chinese bases near the US, and you’ll understand who’s “militarist” and who isn’t.

That's evidence of having more allies than China, not evidence of being more militaristic than China.

Bases in the Phillipines as a result of invading on the back of falsely accusing the Spanish of sinking the Maine .. "allies".

Bases in Japan as a result of levelling all the major cities and using two atomic weapons .. "allies".

Call it what you like, the US has a habit of beachheading bases across the globe and never leaving.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#147
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China was actually trying to heavily establish offshoring in the Philippines—but that has seemingly dried up with the increasing South China Sea tensions.

Looks like militarism and imperialism are not compatible at that crazy new 21th century world. IMO, that's a good development. I hope it lasts.

> Looks like militarism and imperialism are not compatible at that crazy new 21th century world.

Are we talking about good old U.S.A ?

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#148
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Approximately 1 million victims (mostly civilian) just in this century, with trillions spent on wars. Multiple continuous wars since WW2. Iraq (2x), Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yugoslavia, Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Haiti. Multiple proxy wars on top of that. Need I continue?

oh, I don’t debate the US have done quite a bite of imperialism and horrible things. I’m talking about today though.

Umm.. merrily bombing the middle east ? There are occupation bases in Syria merrily looting oil. And selling $20 billion in weapons to bomb the middle east even more. Americans seem to have blinkers the size of titanosaurs and a "I cannot see it" attitude when it comes to their military.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#149
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've pointed out what the US is doing. That's good, but you're clearly biased, so let me tell you two things that China is doing that is contributing for that instability you've mentioned: claims in the south china sea that no country would accept if it was done to them and a major naval build up. You need two to tango and both the US and China are dancing right now. Anyone only blaming one side need to stop for a…

Take a look at a map of US bases around China and then try to find any Chinese bases near the US, and you’ll understand who’s “militarist” and who isn’t.

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Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#150
post #62

It’s pretty simple, Chinese companies need to lower Chinese wages, reduce costs, reduce profit expectations, provide lower cost shipping to ports, guarantee the quality of their product once it arrives in North America not pay when it leaves the factory. We want $1 products again at dollar tree (not $1.25 tree), and better quality for less money. Otherwise we will just make the stuff in the USA ourselves. One day we…

Personally, I have been coming more around to Chinese manufactured goods. It used to be low-end crap 30 years ago, but they are market leaders in many sectors today and probably even more tomorrow. I recently drove a Chinese (ICE) SUV for the first time and was blown away by the fit, finish, and price.

I remember as a kid hearing people throw around the term "Jap crap". Not for a long time.

China has been going the same way. They are now capable of making very high quality products. Taiwan went down the same route, South Korea too.

In the long term, it's not China that has a problem, it's complacent western manufacturing companies. It's not just a failure to innovate. Some have used their market power to exploit consumers such as the US vehicle manufacturers pushing people to 'trucks' because it served their own interests. They abandoned the small (read sensible) car market. Top selling car recently in Brazil was the BYD Seagull - knocking Ford off.

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