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Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

princeton.edu

141–150 of 188 posts

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems there are 3 main factors in success (or lack thereof): Luck, working smarter, working harder. Luck is a major factor for everyone, but you can't control it. You can certainly influence working smarter, but it is often a matter of juding in hindsight what was smart rather than determining it before hand. Working harder is much more under our control than the others. It is important to acknowledge luck. This h…

I liked your analysis and agree for the most part. But you can't leave out the talent factor, nor the resources/position one starts with. It is possible to be born into success.

>>It is possible to be born into success.

It definitely is, but it only takes you there. You have carry it from there on.

Most of rich kids feel its their 'right' to be rich, regardless of whether they 'deserve' it or not. I have a lot of friends who inherited crazy fortune from their parents. According to them poor people getting rich due to whatever reason is 'unfair' to them.

Most rich kids just like the status quo to remain unchanged. Their idea of getting rich, is they staying where they are, without much effort and others remaining poor.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the speech. I also read Liars Poker. I knew Lewis had worked at Soloman Brothers, but somehow in the years since I read the book "Goldman" replaced "Soloman" in my head. So this is a typo. Of course that I named a different firm (equally hated) than the correct one doesn't change the content of my article. It is a post hoc, ergo proctor hoc argument to evade the obvious reason. The actual reason has been prese…

s/b Salomon Brothers You may now resume proving Lewis's point, that "People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck."

So just how much more "lucky" is Warren Buffet than a thousand other capitalists? If you took away every penny he owns and made him 25 again, do you really doubt he would be able to earn it all back?

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#143
I have gotten successful by being 'unlucky'.

Post my 10th Standard(10th grade) I failed to secure a seat in a good college, though I had good marks. I went to a sub par college by any measure. I met some amazingly hardworking people in the college, who were just motivated like crazy to prove to the world that going bad college doesn't change anything in life. We worked hard, very hard. Studied like crazy. I can't remember if we ever slept for more than 5 hours a day the whole year. I did great in my pre university exams.

During the entrance exams I got 'unlucky' again. The bus I took to the examination hall got punctured and I arrived to the hall 15 minutes late. I lost precious rank and again went into a average college. I met some great friends, we hacked in our free time. We did part time jobs in start ups. We installed modems for ISP's. I learned tons compared to other people in my age.

Then again due an average college I failed to get a job in a software company straight out of college. I went to a call center. I got trained to deal with sales calls, technical support, I learned to talk in American accent, I learned to work late nights, I learned how to resolve issues quickly. My other friends went to work at top software companies here in India.

I started coding in my spare time during the day and work in call center at the night. I got a job in a software company 9 months later. Again I got placed in a support project by being 'unlucky'.

I started automating stuff, hacked like crazy day and night. I got a break in another unit in the company. All my other friends went to foreign onsite locations and were seeing the world. I went to work in development project.

I got 'unlucky' again, I fell ill. Lost 35 kgs of weight due to a bad diagnosis of Tropical Sprue. I was put in as a back up guy for one of our client which happens to one of the largest web companies in the world today. I got back my life, and health slowly.

I started working like crazy again. I did stuff with and editor and a interpreter they had never seen. They were happy, they decided to hire me full time. I happened to land in a company any guy here would dream to work.

In this journey of getting and having chains of repeated back luck, I have gotten rich, got a little success and doing good by gods grace now.

If I had gotten 'lucky' at any stage. I wouldn't be where I'm today.

In other news, most of my friends who get tons of opportunities, chances and crazy twists of destiny in their favor are no where despite all they got today.

Moral of the story I learned so far: You can't win against Karma! No way! It will get to you sooner or later. So just do the right stuff and relax.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#144

Michael Lewis meet Quora; Quora meet Michael Lewis: http://www.quora.com/Wealthy-People-and-Families/Why-dont-so... The question I want answered is: How do you optimise for luck? I've come to the conclusion that one most work very hard on something with a scalable market value for a long period of time. You continue to do this (repeatedly if need be), until you either, in order of likelihood: a) Quit b) Die c) Get lu…

You have some facts about Bill Gates wrong. Not only is he smarter than other smart people but he's also harder working than most other hard-working people. It was generally accepted among his classmates that he was the smartest in his class at Lakeview and one of the smartest at Harvard. Also, you could say that Bill Gates got lucky with the CP/M OS deal, but he was shrewd enough to give himself the advantage in the…

You could rephrase that sentence:

Bill's intelligence, hard work, cunning, and competitiveness played a huge role in Microsoft's early success, and this success was multiplied manifold later on by extraordinary luck.

Once again I never said it wasn't necessary - the intelligence or the hard work. I merely indicated that it isn't sufficient for success above a certain level.

Your first statement is unverified, and probabilistically wrong. I heard a similar story that he dropped out because he couldn't take the advanced math classes, and that he was no longer the smartest person in the class. See everyone can do this!

Smartest at Harvard or Lakeview does not equal smartest at starting a company (also unverified - I'm sure there were people that were smarter/more hard working).

It's a sad realisation that in many areas in life (outside of pure competition such as sports), it's not about what people did, it's more about who they were, who they knew, and where they lived.

Liberating for some, but depressing nonetheless.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#145
Michael Lewis is feeling what we call "Socialist Guilt" here in Berkeley. Feel free to ignore him, cookies are delicious, and if you get to eat a bunch just make sure you have some stock reply like "If God didn't want me to eat these cookies, he wouldn't have made them so delicious".

Also, cookies aren't very nutritious. Just something to keep in mind as you chomp on your 17th consecutive cookie.

Also, they are fairly cheap if you have the right equipment. Here is a good recipe: http://www.google.com/search?q=tool%20house%20cookies

You're probably thinking, "What the hell is he talking about, the cookies are a metaphor for greed" but that's completely ridiculous. Cookies are delicious and greed is a psychological imbalance. They have absolutely nothing in common.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternate explanation: People know they can't do anything about true luck, so they want to focus on things they might be able to do something about.

Maybe, but I'm talking about retrospection here, not prospection. People, even when talking about past successes, are very unlikely to admit their good fortune. In other words you're more likely to hear, "I worked very hard" than "I worked very hard and was very lucky." There are notable exceptions. Warren Buffet has openly talked about the role of luck in his success.

Of course luck plays a role, but we are not talking lottery style luck here. If success was mostly luck then it would be a pure numbers game. China and India would hold most of the world's successful people due to their massive populations.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#147

I had a great time reading the following group of related books. How To Beat the Dealer by Ed Thorp. You might think this is lame and outdated, but it will clue you into how bond traders think. In fact, Bill Gross of pimco was so inspired by the book that he went to Vegas and became a gambler (before pimco but OTW). That book also is the holy grail for card counting. It will up your blackjack at least, and prepare yo…

FYI there's a new book by Scott Patterson coming out next week called "Dark Pools: High-Speed Traders, A.I. Bandits, and the Threat to the Global Financial System" which looks interesting.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#148
post #137
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some businessmen feel obligated to "give back." Who says they've taken anything? Paul Graham responds, "They've taken something from chance."

It should be obvious to anyone, that when you have more wealth than 99.5% of the world, you owe the rest of the world. But not so many understand or realize that. Next time, they shall be born alone, let's see how many hours they survive. People feed you. Build stuff for you. Make your life better. And most of them, don't gain much from it. Usually, they just die younger.

>>It should be obvious to anyone, that when you have more wealth than 99.5% of the world, you owe the rest of the world.

Unless you are a king, dictator or some force of evil. Building 99.5% of the wealth in the world will mandate you to build empires of business, solve problems, provide employment to millions of people around the globe.

That much doesn't happen merely by chance.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems there are 3 main factors in success (or lack thereof): Luck, working smarter, working harder. Luck is a major factor for everyone, but you can't control it. You can certainly influence working smarter, but it is often a matter of juding in hindsight what was smart rather than determining it before hand. Working harder is much more under our control than the others. It is important to acknowledge luck. This h…

I liked your analysis and agree for the most part. But you can't leave out the talent factor, nor the resources/position one starts with. It is possible to be born into success.

Talent is a fair point. So is the resources/position one starts with, but I had considered that one part of luck.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#150

Michael Lewis meet Quora; Quora meet Michael Lewis: http://www.quora.com/Wealthy-People-and-Families/Why-dont-so... The question I want answered is: How do you optimise for luck? I've come to the conclusion that one most work very hard on something with a scalable market value for a long period of time. You continue to do this (repeatedly if need be), until you either, in order of likelihood: a) Quit b) Die c) Get lu…

Mary Gates, Bill Gates' mother, was on the same board as John Opel, the president, chairman and CEO of I.B.M. They discussed her son's company and Mr. Opel mentioned Mrs. Gates to other I.B.M. executives. A few weeks later, I.B.M. took a chance by hiring Microsoft, then a small software company, to develop an operating system for its first personal computer. So a discussion Mary Gates had with John Opel while they we…

Other way to look at it is, He had to build a company first.

How would Mary Gates be of any help to him if he hadn't built the company?

Her influence was a multiplier and not the only reason for his success.

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