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Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

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Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#141

Post by jandrese »

paulmd wrote: post #96
jandrese wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now AI is in the part of the hype cycle where we are in the first knee of the S curve and people are drawing straight lines from that to predict the future. I've seen so much ridiculous hype about AI becoming godlike super-geniuses before the decade is out that I have to wonder if any of these people have tried using AI for real work and not just flashy demos.

> I've seen so much ridiculous hype about AI becoming godlike super-geniuses before the decade is out I’ve actually seen literally none of that from proponents, like I’ve probably seen 100x as much strawmanning and uncharitable summary from opponents. Essentially nobody thinks we should hand the kingdom over to an unsupervised savior machine, like, can you show me a candidate from a major political party (doesn’t hav…

This chart has been making the rounds recently as an example:

https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1798467961151443382

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#142

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

jandrese wrote: post #141
paulmd wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've seen so much ridiculous hype about AI becoming godlike super-geniuses before the decade is out I’ve actually seen literally none of that from proponents, like I’ve probably seen 100x as much strawmanning and uncharitable summary from opponents. Essentially nobody thinks we should hand the kingdom over to an unsupervised savior machine, like, can you show me a candidate from a major political party (doesn’t hav…

This chart has been making the rounds recently as an example: https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1798467961151443382

That chart is insane. Assuming that scaling up compute is all that's needed seems wildly incorrect to me.

This whole buzz does have shades of self-driving cars back in 2016.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#143

Post by aprilthird2021 »

latchkey wrote: post #139
aprilthird2021 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want to argue and pretend there weren't tons and tons of companies and technical products tied to both cryptocurrency and VR/AR lately that absolutely flopped despite being technically unique and innovative by cherry picking things that would have been sound investments back then and ignoring the myriad ways you'd have lost money or the fact that Bitcoin has less usefulness as a technology now than when it was…

Are you really trying to argue that all companies in a space need to succeed, for the space to be successful? As for bitcoin itself, people and companies have hyped it for their own benefit, but bitcoin itself isn't a company, and therefore isn't hyped. It is one technology that lives on its own and survives primarily because of the will of the people that choose to participate in it.

No I'm not arguing that. It should be obvious

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#144

Post by jandrese »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #142
jandrese wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This chart has been making the rounds recently as an example: https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1798467961151443382

That chart is insane. Assuming that scaling up compute is all that's needed seems wildly incorrect to me. This whole buzz does have shades of self-driving cars back in 2016.

> Assuming that scaling up compute is all that's needed seems wildly incorrect to me.

This is literally the strategy that people like Elon Musk are pursuing in their quest for AGI before the end of the decade. It is how he plans to have full self driving solved by August 8 so he can start selling Robotaxi accounts.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#145

Post by YetAnotherNick »

zarzavat wrote: post #125
YetAnotherNick wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I submit as evidence Llama 3. Llama 3 has likely costed billions to Meta and most of it went to Nvidia. What are you talking about. As much as what you think inference costs, it is tiny in comparison to training the model.

Pre-training happens once then it’s done. You can’t make a multi-trillion dollar business out of providing hardware for that. Inference is where the money is because it’s recurring.

No, while what you are saying sounds intuitive on one hand, OpenAI is building $100b supercomputer for training new models. As long as people want to train better models than a year before(which seems to be a good assumption for new few years), training will keep on giving good revenue to Nvidia.

Inference requires 1/3rd the FLOPs than training per token and current models are already trained on entirety of internet. You can generate 3 times the internet for 1 training run.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#146

Post by tonymet »

gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

It's ultimately a question of what I prefer vs what I expect to happen.

I would prefer that companies providing utility would be rewarded. I expect , however, that companies enabling administrative control (via AI , software, monopolization, surveilance, market capture) will actually be rewarded.

So in a better world Walmart should be a higher value, since they are feeding and supplying the entire country with food, tools, consumer goods, luxuries, furniture, etc.

But in reality Nvidia will be rewarded for enabling more administrative control.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#147

Post by misiti3780 »

IncreasePosts wrote: post #113
gizajob wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure is. Nvidia buyers right now couldn’t be buying any higher though, and they’re still buying. I get a feeling like the shorting opportunities will be apparent when they present themselves. I’m not looking to put my house on shorting it down any time soon though, but I’ll be surprised if there isn’t some big corrections and market pain in the next 12 months the way this is going. And if not 12 months, then the resu…

This is what people have said about TSLA for like...a decade? And there have been only maybe 3 or 4 good times to short the stock, all obvious in retrospect.

I suspect TSLA is about to have another run here in the next year or so.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#148

Post by gizajob »

misiti3780 wrote: post #147
IncreasePosts wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what people have said about TSLA for like...a decade? And there have been only maybe 3 or 4 good times to short the stock, all obvious in retrospect.

I suspect TSLA is about to have another run here in the next year or so.

If they genuinely solve self-driving, then it seems like it. Tesla three years ago didn't have any competition and now they do, so big differentiation is needed, and FSD would be it.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#149

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

jandrese wrote: post #144
disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That chart is insane. Assuming that scaling up compute is all that's needed seems wildly incorrect to me. This whole buzz does have shades of self-driving cars back in 2016.

> Assuming that scaling up compute is all that's needed seems wildly incorrect to me. This is literally the strategy that people like Elon Musk are pursuing in their quest for AGI before the end of the decade. It is how he plans to have full self driving solved by August 8 so he can start selling Robotaxi accounts.

I mean, maybe? Certainly scaling up compute will make better text predictors, I am entirely unconvinced that that's all which is needed, but eventually I'll be wrong about the hype I guess.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#150

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

gizajob wrote: post #148
misiti3780 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect TSLA is about to have another run here in the next year or so.

If they genuinely solve self-driving, then it seems like it. Tesla three years ago didn't have any competition and now they do, so big differentiation is needed, and FSD would be it.

Based on my experience with it a couple months ago when they gave everyone a 1-month free trial of it, Tesla is close in that it handles 95% of situations perfectly. But it's still incredibly far away because that last 5% is going to take many more years.

There were some parts that genuinely surprised me in how good it was. For example, I drove through a construction zone where there were cones on the ground diverting cars out of the painted lines on the road, and FSD followed the cones and drove over the lines without complaint. It handled my neighborhood road that is kind of narrow and has cars parked on both curbs while going around turns flawlessly.

That said, when making turns without a traffic light, it's SUPER cautious, enough to absolutely infuriate anybody driving behind you. And it STILL struggles sometimes when one lane turns into two. It will ride the middle until it's basically driving on top of the line, then SWERVE into one of the lanes.

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