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The world has probably passed peak pollution

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Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#141

Post by skissane »

globalise83 wrote: post #137
skissane wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Peak baby - 2013. [2] I think your source's claim that "The planet will never see more babies than it has in 2013" is open to question. To just use the US as an example: mainstream Americans have a declining fertility rate, and we have no reason to think that is going to reverse in the foreseeable future. Immigrants have higher fertility, but they tend to converge to the mainstream after a generation or two. So,…

The fact that these are still very much niche interests after many generations indicates that the social indoctrination processes needed to maintain such cultures are not scalable.

> The fact that these are still very much niche interests after many generations indicates that the social indoctrination processes needed to maintain such cultures are not scalable.

In 2023, Israel contained over 1.28 million ultra-Orthodox Jews, 13.5% of Israel’s population. It is estimated that by the end of this decade, it will be over 16%. [0] By shortly after 2065, it is estimated that 50% of Israeli children will be Haredi. [1] I think this is counterevidence to your claim - the social indoctrination processes necessary to maintain Israeli ultra-Orthodox Judaism have already scaled to over 1 million people, and are projected to scale much further than that

[0] https://www.timesofisrael.com/haredim-are-fastest-growing-po...

[1] https://archive.md/lYYgK

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#142

Post by [deleted] »

skissane wrote: post #111
jacobolus wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultra-orthodox communities (like everyone else in the modern world, with vanishingly few exceptions) are entirely dependent on the broader society/economy. Under the implausible scenario where they approached a majority of the population, they'd inevitably (a) diffuse much more broadly into the rest of the population, and (b) make their current set of organizing practices unsustainable, without any persecution involv…

Of course they are going to have to change as they grow. The question is how big the changes will be. We already see this in Israel - a big increase in Haredi women pursuing secular careers. In other communities worldwide, that development ended up significantly undermining the patriarchal culture and producing a demographic transition to lower fertility. But, will it necessarily have the same consequences for the Ha…

[deleted]

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#143

Post by TheCoelacanth »

wongarsu wrote: post #36
iiovemiku wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, seeing peak baby is a little scary honestly. I had always thought that low birth rates were a problem for only countries like Germany, Spain, Japan, etc. (at least for the time being). Seeing countries like India even out (and even going under replacement rate) gives me some heavy pessimism about population graying. I had always thought that heavy swingers like them would carry on the whole growing population th…

We still won't reach peak population until 2060 at the earliest, and more likely around 2100. [1] has a good graph by region on page 4, and a graph for world population near the end. Most regions haven't reached their population peak yet and subsaharan Africa is still growing strongly. Of course a lot of this is just delayed by higher life expectancies. Aging populations will require major social reforms in our lifet…

I think you're looking at peak population, while they are talking about peak number of children. According to some reports, the number of children has already peaked[1]. The remaining growth is just momentum from past births.

[1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-13/earths-population-rea...

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#144

Post by jacobolus »

skissane wrote: post #111
jacobolus wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultra-orthodox communities (like everyone else in the modern world, with vanishingly few exceptions) are entirely dependent on the broader society/economy. Under the implausible scenario where they approached a majority of the population, they'd inevitably (a) diffuse much more broadly into the rest of the population, and (b) make their current set of organizing practices unsustainable, without any persecution involv…

Of course they are going to have to change as they grow. The question is how big the changes will be. We already see this in Israel - a big increase in Haredi women pursuing secular careers. In other communities worldwide, that development ended up significantly undermining the patriarchal culture and producing a demographic transition to lower fertility. But, will it necessarily have the same consequences for the Ha…

Almost anything is "possible", but this seems entirely implausible, based on extrapolation that goes at least an order of magnitude beyond anything supportable by evidence or careful argument. Can you name any other examples of this happening throughout history, in the US or anywhere else, where a completely self-isolated tiny minority group took power and displaced everyone through "out-procreating" them?

To be honest I really dislike this kind of vague speculative fearmongering when targeted at specific minority groups, which seems extremely dangerous. It historically blends right into overt bigotry and sectarian oppression.

The US has a long, proud tradition of all sorts of unusual sects and cults trying to do their own thing, often in somewhat closed communities, sometimes to the dismay of their neighbors, sometimes failing pretty badly, but usually without really breaking fair laws or causing serious mischief to anyone else (but also occasionally breaking a lot of laws and hurting people; the police should go after such cults). We all owe quite a few of the rights we take for granted to the hard struggle of some of these groups to make their own choices.

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#145

Post by WA »

elijahbenizzy wrote: post #113
Animats wrote: post #2

That's encouraging. - Peak pollution - check. - Peak coal - not yet. - Peak oil - maybe 2019, but aftermath of COVID affects numbers.[1] - Peak baby - 2013. [2] [1] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-19/the-status-of-... [2] https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/11/12/the-stats-guy...

“Peak baby” is an objectively bad thing

It's not. We need a sustainable size of population. Unlimited population growth is not sustainable. It doesn't mean that we are going to die out. It just means that there are as many newborns as old people dying. Check out this good old Hans Rosling video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#146

Post by zizee »

xeornet wrote: post #138
ISL wrote: post #88

We may not yet have had the war that ends all wars. Whenever I think about protecting the environment, I think about preventing the catastrophes that are wars.

It would seem politicians, especially in the West do not care at all about that concern.

Especially in the west?

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#147

Post by lotsofpulp »

jacobolus wrote: post #144
skissane wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course they are going to have to change as they grow. The question is how big the changes will be. We already see this in Israel - a big increase in Haredi women pursuing secular careers. In other communities worldwide, that development ended up significantly undermining the patriarchal culture and producing a demographic transition to lower fertility. But, will it necessarily have the same consequences for the Ha…

Almost anything is "possible", but this seems entirely implausible, based on extrapolation that goes at least an order of magnitude beyond anything supportable by evidence or careful argument. Can you name any other examples of this happening throughout history, in the US or anywhere else, where a completely self-isolated tiny minority group took power and displaced everyone through "out-procreating" them? To be hone…

>Can you name any other examples of this happening throughout history, in the US or anywhere else, where a completely self-isolated tiny minority group took power and displaced everyone through "out-procreating" them?

Kiryas Joel NY, Lakewood NJ, certain parts of Brooklyn. They basically have their own government, and they have far less state government oversight due to politicians not wanting to go against them.

They drive around NYC with vehicles that look like cop cars, acting like cops, which would get most other groups charged with impersonating a government official. They elect themselves to the school board and vote to prioritize funding for their group’s children, and deprioritize funding for any other group’s children. Etc etc.

Not that they are the only group to have done it, but these are your easy to google examples.

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#148

Post by Owlettotoo »

vondur wrote: post #62
WaxProlix wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the same way that your local power plant isn't solely responsible for the pollution created in heating surrounding homes, it's probably not reasonable to look at the places that have done the fabricating, weaving, injection molding, spinning, etc for the rest of the world as being the major center of pollution. China specifically is decarbonizing fast , and at some expense to their own economy over the last decade…

Regarding China: China accounted for 95% of the world's new coal power construction activity in 2023, according to the latest annual report from Global Energy Monitor (GEM). Construction began on 70 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in China, up four-fold since 2019, says GEM's annual report on the global coal power industry China started construction on 70.2 GW of new coal-power capacity last year, almost 20 times the…

If I am not mistaken, a good portion of these newly constructed coal plants are meant to replace existing ones that are obsolete and inefficient. It would be hard to judge its impact on net pollution without relevant data on plants retired.

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#149

Post by spintin »

Animats wrote: post #2

That's encouraging. - Peak pollution - check. - Peak coal - not yet. - Peak oil - maybe 2019, but aftermath of COVID affects numbers.[1] - Peak baby - 2013. [2] [1] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-19/the-status-of-... [2] https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/11/12/the-stats-guy...

[dead]

Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution

#150

Post by vouaobrasil »

fragmede wrote: post #108
vouaobrasil wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it truly amusing how any suggestion that technology LOWERS our standard of living is immediately met with a severe reaction here. It's as though it is gospel, to be assumed without any question. Technophiles are truly narrow-minded.

the micro view of technology is that it improves things. how could it be otherwise? the things that used to take a painful ten hours can now be done in six, without painf. it's not until you look at capitalism, realize that we're not all on the same team, that things go awry. see, we invented this thing called money, and things have gone downhill ever since. there have been some good things to come out of it, sure, b…

Yes, that is very true. The micro perspective is that it improves things indeed, which is why it is hard to understand its true nature, which is just pure development of itself. But in fact, the Greeks already realized it in their creation of the words "techne" and "logos", which form the modern word "technology"!
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