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Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

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Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#141

Post by trothamel »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #120
dylan604 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least this time it wasn't scrubbed for a Starliner issue. The capsule isn't responsible for the booster's valve issues. I'm guessing the Boeing reps in capcom were wiping their brows

> capsule isn't responsible for the booster's valve issues But Boeing is responsible for putting it on an Atlas V. Why?! There are fewer than thirty of them left! Why aren’t they practicing on a modern stack? I’ll eat my words if Starliner can rapidly transition to another booster. But given its track record in software alone, I’m incredibly sceptical.

Dissimilar Redundancy. Say the Falcon 9 suffers an in-flight failure. The last time that happened, there was a stand-down for quite some time, and I suspect that there would be a similar amount of time before people could be flown on it, even if I'd think Starlinks could resume right away.

Starliner/Atlas wouldn't be affected, and so ensure the US and our allies have access to the station without getting Russia involved.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#142

Post by elteto »

imglorp wrote: post #127
subsubzero wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't think of a larger moat in any industry where the leader has such a gigantic head start than spaceX. The "old guard" is so far behind why would the US Govt. or NASA give those companies any money now as it would be akin to setting it on fire. I mean spacex had 96 launches last year compared to ULAs 3. It just shows how much bureaucracy can just kill a companies innovation.

Head start? Boeing has 108 years of vast aerospace history and culture. The mistakes on this project are well summarized by an Ars article this week, mostly coming down to the well known management issues plus an inability to operate in a fixed price procurement setting; everything about their organization depended on cost plus structures. https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/05/the-surprise-is-not-th...

Horse breeders had millennia of accumulated history and culture at the end of the 19th century.

Boeing today is not the same Boeing of yesterday. All that history means nothing if you can’t execute now.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#143

Post by twinge »

snakeyjake wrote: post #118

Been doing this for decades and every single day I've wished I was smart enough to solve valves.

"Why valves are a spacecraft engineer’s worst nightmare" is a great read about all the problems of valves[0]. There's also an interesting interview of the author worth a listen[1].

[0] https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/12/why-valves-are-a-spacecraf...

[1] https://offnom.com/episodes/149

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#144

Post by blackhawkC17 »

Boeing won a US$4.2 billion contract to complete and certify the Starliner by 2017, while SpaceX won a US$2.6 billion contract to complete and certify their crewed Dragon spacecraft. Both contracts were awarded in 2014.

SpaceX flew its first full crewed mission in 2020, and Boeing can't even put together a test flight in 2024. What a bloated, underskilled contractor robbing the taxpayer blind...took 1.5x more money than SpaceX and can't even deliver anything 10 years later.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#145

Post by lupusreal »

richardwhiuk wrote: post #130
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> capsule isn't responsible for the booster's valve issues But Boeing is responsible for putting it on an Atlas V. Why?! There are fewer than thirty of them left! Why aren’t they practicing on a modern stack? I’ll eat my words if Starliner can rapidly transition to another booster. But given its track record in software alone, I’m incredibly sceptical.

If it's worth it, they'll transition to Vulcan. But given the timeline of the ISS, unclear their will be demand.

Boeing leadership has blamed fixed-price contracts like the Commercial Crew Program for their inability to make a profit, so I doubt they'll be looking to get themselves into another. Starliner might continue to fly if they can bribe/blackmail the government into giving them an unlimited money tap (aka "cost plus") contract for more Starliner missions. Hopefully that doesn't happen, but time will tell.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/10/boeing-says-it-cant-ma...

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#146

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sebzim4500 wrote: post #128
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #116

Atlas V + Starliner vs Falcon + Dragon is SLS + Orion vs Starship with the stupid dialled to eleven. Starliner is meant to be reusable, except its components can’t even make it through one run uneventfully [1]. It’s mated to the Atlas V, a buggy, disposable stack that’s already been EOL’d [2]. NASA’s money would be so much better spent—even now!—on literally anything else. The amount of practical redundancy provided…

The Starliner stack is way less stupid than SLS. It's less than 2x the price of SpaceX, whereas the SLS vs Falcon Heavy cost ratio is like 20x.

> It's less than 2x the price of SpaceX, whereas the SLS vs Falcon Heavy cost ratio is like 20x

Starliner is directly comparable to Dragon. SLS can technically do things Falcon Heavy can't (e.g. more payload).

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#147

Post by MBCook »

blackhawkC17 wrote: post #144

Boeing won a US$4.2 billion contract to complete and certify the Starliner by 2017, while SpaceX won a US$2.6 billion contract to complete and certify their crewed Dragon spacecraft. Both contracts were awarded in 2014. SpaceX flew its first full crewed mission in 2020, and Boeing can't even put together a test flight in 2024. What a bloated, underskilled contractor robbing the taxpayer blind...took 1.5x more money t…

Ars Technica just had an article about this the other day.

For context: SpaceX had a “head start” because they had an existing cargo capsule they modified while Boeing was designing from scratch.

Still you can add this to the pile of stuff Boeing is going through lately and it doesn’t look good at all. One more thing that’s not working out right.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#148

Post by JumpCrisscross »

trothamel wrote: post #141
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> capsule isn't responsible for the booster's valve issues But Boeing is responsible for putting it on an Atlas V. Why?! There are fewer than thirty of them left! Why aren’t they practicing on a modern stack? I’ll eat my words if Starliner can rapidly transition to another booster. But given its track record in software alone, I’m incredibly sceptical.

Dissimilar Redundancy. Say the Falcon 9 suffers an in-flight failure. The last time that happened, there was a stand-down for quite some time, and I suspect that there would be a similar amount of time before people could be flown on it, even if I'd think Starlinks could resume right away. Starliner/Atlas wouldn't be affected, and so ensure the US and our allies have access to the station without getting Russia invol…

> Starliner/Atlas wouldn't be affected

Every launch of the Atlas V has already been sold [1]. They can't make more because it uses the Russian RD-180 engine.

If the Falcons were grounded, we wouldn't have the capacity to replace them with Starliner + Atlas V.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/26/22641048/ula-boeing-lockh...

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#149

Post by adolph »

Laremere wrote: post #124

For anyone who doesn't follow rocket launches: Launch scrubs happen /constantly/. It happens to everyone, and a single scrub is not a sign of problems with a program. If it takes multiple scrubs with months of delays before it finally launches, then it'll be another thing to add on to Starliner's list of difficulties fulfilling their contract with NASA. However a scrub or two is business as usual.

Anybody remember "scrubtober" in 2020?

a troubled first few days of October, nicknamed “Scrubtober”, in light of scrubbed launch attempts which have affected SpaceX, Northrop Grumman Corp. and United Launch Alliance (ULA).

https://www.americaspace.com/2020/10/06/spacex-ends-scrubtob...

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#150

Post by adolph »

richardwhiuk wrote: post #129
Laremere wrote: post #124

For anyone who doesn't follow rocket launches: Launch scrubs happen /constantly/. It happens to everyone, and a single scrub is not a sign of problems with a program. If it takes multiple scrubs with months of delays before it finally launches, then it'll be another thing to add on to Starliner's list of difficulties fulfilling their contract with NASA. However a scrub or two is business as usual.

Weather scrubs are common, and not relevant to the success of a program. GSE (Ground Servicing Equipment) are fairly common and fairly benign. Valves on the rocket? Much, much more rare, and usually indicate some form of issue.

> Valves on the rocket? Much, much more rare, and usually indicate some form of issue.

And to be fair to the starcrossed Starliner, the valve "pressure regulation valve on the liquid oxygen tank of the Atlas 54 rocket‘s Centaur upper stage."

https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/05/07/starliner-launch-scrub...

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