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Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

curingaddiction.substack.com

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Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#141

Post by knappe »

voisin wrote: post #127
kgwgk wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The worst case is worse than that: in addition to composition of matter patents there are dosage patents that can be invoked. https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/novo-nordisk-patent-sema...

I am not familiar with pharma patents. Are you saying, for example, a 300ml dose could have a patent with different expiry than a 400ml dose? I could see patenting mechanism of delivery, like injections versus oral, but not the example above.

Pharma is notorious for changing the formulation just enough to acquire a new patent to restart the clock. I wouldn't be surprised if the dosage was a factor in the process.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#143

Post by ec109685 »

knappe wrote: post #141
voisin wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not familiar with pharma patents. Are you saying, for example, a 300ml dose could have a patent with different expiry than a 400ml dose? I could see patenting mechanism of delivery, like injections versus oral, but not the example above.

Pharma is notorious for changing the formulation just enough to acquire a new patent to restart the clock. I wouldn't be surprised if the dosage was a factor in the process.

That doesn’t mean the existing drug can’t be sold as a generic.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#144

Post by dimmke »

rblatz wrote: post #134
red_trumpet wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't they have a patent which makes competition non-existent for the near future?

There are numerous compounding pharmacies selling generic ozempic (Semaglutide) There is competition, I see ads on Facebook and Instagram for it all the time, there are clinics all over where I live advertising Semaglutide treatment for weight loss.

Additionally, "Ozempic" (semaglutide) has become the blanket word to describe an entire class of drugs (GLP-1 Agonists) that all kind of do the same thing. Some of which have already been proven in clinical trials to be even more effective than Ozempic (ex. Tirzepatide)

It's like when COVID hit and somehow "Zoom" became the shorthand for online video meetings even though there were (and still are) a ton of options for that functionality on the market.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#145

Post by hackerlight »

Eisenstein wrote: post #95
nickff wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It probably wouldn’t have much of an impact on the sales or marketing of this product, but it’d definitely have significant impacts on drug manufacturers’ future plans (by reducing expected ROI & discouraging the development of ‘marginal drugs’).

Would it? Drug manufacturers don't really do as much 'R&D' as we assume, they buy biotech companies that have already discovered drugs. Also, why would a company stop wanting to make money? 'We are only going to make $5billion instead of $15 billion, let's not bother with that one.'

> 'We are only going to make $5billion instead of $15 billion, let's not bother with that one.'

Well, yes. If there's a 10% chance of success, these differences matter. Decision making happens at the margin.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#146

Post by wilg »

raziel2701 wrote: post #17

Ozempic costs $1000/month (in the US) but $5/month to manufacture [0]. I think if this drug and others are to have a significant anti-consumption effect on other companies it needs to be vastly more accessible, which first requires more accessible healthcare in the US, which is unlikely to happen. Also it's an injection, which raises the barrier. If drugs like these become orally administered and over-the-counter, th…

Zepbound is $550/mo with the manufacturer coupon without insurance.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#147

Post by kergonath »

chpatrick wrote: post #34
akgoel wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I was on Ozempic, I just didn't want the milkshake. It rewires all reward centers.

But it still doesn't sound like a sustainable lifetime solution. I think it makes great sense if you're badly out of shape, you fix it, and then you can maintain a healthy weight. But going on ozempic every few years sounds really bad.

The way it is done, people take them for the rest of their lives. It is not something you are supposed to get only for a while, it is not a cure in that sense. It’s still miles better than the alternative, which is staying obese.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#149

Post by sshine »

Fredej wrote: post #123
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Money is not the issue - getting access to production lines is You don’t think having the heft of the U.S. government behind one of those parties will help with that access?

What I'm trying to say is that the supply is constrained, not the demand. And the supply of factories themselves are constrained as well. So they need to build more factories, which they are doing at an impressive pace. And for building factories it's similarly not the land or the money or the red tape that's the issue. It's the time to build a factory that's the limiting factor.

I interviewed for a contractor involved in building factories for Novo Nordisk. The timelines sounded insanely ambitious.

Re: Ozempic will disrupt big tobacco, candy companies, and alcohol brands

#150

Post by ImPostingOnHN »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #128
ImPostingOnHN wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the same thing said with more words.

No, it’s saying there is a limited part of the drug market where curing may not be as profitable as maintenance. So they’re trying to find alternate ways of financing that development. For most of pharma, curing is a payday.

> there is a limited part of the drug market where curing may not be as profitable as maintenance

That's the same as asking,

> "Is curing patients a sustainable business model?"

The offense in question is letting profits effect a decision to develop a treatment over a cure. You're literally spelling out the bad thing.

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