If Copilot loses this much, just imagine how much OpenAI is losing on non-paying users using ChatGPT. Who's gonna pay for this as soon as the VC money runs out?
the environment
GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
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Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#142Thus, the price of Github Copilot is going to go up, 2x to 5x. For all of the criticism of Github Copilot, for a lot of developers (but not all), the value Github Copilot is incredibly high, much more than $20/month. The current rock bottom pricing is low compared to the value provided for those users. As such there is a big opportunity to multiply the price here being charged. Probably an increase between 3x to 5x.…
Im not getting $20 of value as is.
Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#143Copilot is useless compared to chat-gpt4. There's really no comparison. As far as the costs, it seems like transmitting things repeatedly would be more expensive than the chat model where you just transmit things when you want them.
Copilot is chat gpt4, and has been since roughly April. It's built on top of it.
For code completion, it uses an improved version of Codex[1], and for chat beta (part of Copilot X), it uses 3.5-turbo[2].
[1]: https://github.blog/2023-07-28-smarter-more-efficient-coding...
[2]: https://github.com/orgs/community/discussions/56975#discussi...
Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#144Thus, the price of Github Copilot is going to go up, 2x to 5x. For all of the criticism of Github Copilot, for a lot of developers (but not all), the value Github Copilot is incredibly high, much more than $20/month. The current rock bottom pricing is low compared to the value provided for those users. As such there is a big opportunity to multiply the price here being charged. Probably an increase between 3x to 5x.…
I feel like part of the productivity is just moved to reviewers. Every once in a while, I have to review large PRs and find out which comment is AI-generated nonsense. LLMs are really good at fooling us into thinking that code comments make sense. That's why I prefer if devs don't use copilot, but instead cherry pick good output from ChatGPT.
This is why I'm concerned about AI. It enables people who don't value their colleagues time to value it even less. Be that code or contributing to a discussion with unedited and false LLM output "as a starting point".
Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
> We start raving about them, so other people take a look expecting… If that’s what you want to call it. I see hypemen overpromising and product underdelivering. And when pressed about specifics, attempts to drown queries in jargon or an ass-covering retreat to treating it like it’s just a tech demo not intended to be used for anything ever.
And management consultants solving every problem in the world by adding a “AI” box in their powerpoint flow diagram.
> And management consultants solving every problem in the world by adding a “AI” box in their powerpoint flow diagram.
i work at a large consulting firm everyone knows and am seeing this first hand. I'm not on the bandwagon until i see real money in the bank from large AI projects succeeding. It's not happening yet. I not a naysayer but am still very skeptical.
Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#146If Copilot loses this much, just imagine how much OpenAI is losing on non-paying users using ChatGPT. Who's gonna pay for this as soon as the VC money runs out?
Maybe by then compute will become cheaper. I am sure they have some plan for the future regardless if it pans out in the end.
Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#147If Copilot loses this much, just imagine how much OpenAI is losing on non-paying users using ChatGPT. Who's gonna pay for this as soon as the VC money runs out?
Unless even their paid api usage is subsidized (and it very well could be for all I know) they can’t be losing that much.
But it doesn’t matter, I’m they never would have gotten the valuations they did if it weren’t for the insane hype around the (free) ChatGPT offering. It more than paid for itself just in that regard.
Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
From that article: 1.5m users and up to 50% of their code is now being produced by Copilot. Sounds to me like the verdict on its value is in already.
Having used Copilot for a year now I very much doubt this figure. In my experience it only works well in boilerplate kind of situations where most code is copy/paste work anyhow. As soon as the code gets a little complicated it stops working well. It has also gotten quite slow for me lately. So I doubt it increases my work efficiency by more than 5%, but I do like it for reducing strain on the hands. For that I find…
> In my experience it only works well in boilerplate kind of situations where most code is copy/paste work anyhow.
As a data point, this matches my personal observations. But reducing the time spent on that bolierplate plus not needing to search where the "copy" portion comes from, may justify $30/month (and probably much more than that). My 2c.
Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#149If Copilot loses this much, just imagine how much OpenAI is losing on non-paying users using ChatGPT. Who's gonna pay for this as soon as the VC money runs out?
They just need to keep it going until GPUs get cheaper. The point is to build/protect the monopoly until that happens. Then costs come down and they start printing an absurd amount of money.
Re: GitHub Copilot loses an average of $20 per user per month
#150If Copilot loses this much, just imagine how much OpenAI is losing on non-paying users using ChatGPT. Who's gonna pay for this as soon as the VC money runs out?
They just need to keep it going until GPUs get cheaper. The point is to build/protect the monopoly until that happens. Then costs come down and they start printing an absurd amount of money.
well, and straight caching. If they know that 80% of people ask the same 10,000 questions without a back and forth dialogue, it's not hard to just write a front end for that.