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Lumber prices down 11% YoY

calculatedriskblog.com

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Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that end up in the hands of regular people doing renovation or home builds?

Were you asleep[1] the entire time? And that's just what Average Joe was pocketing. [1] https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/news/articles/update-three...

Guess you're forgetting the whole "lots of people not able being able to go to their job and get paid" thing during this time, right?

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#143
post #5

The chart in the article does a nice job at illustrating that prices are roughly speaking back to essentially pre-pandemic levels after giant spikes. This seems healthy to me.

I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years ago https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

It's almost double. There has been some spikes in the past but the mean is like 250-300.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lumber is not that big of an input to total construction cost.

Right around 15% on a traditional stick build. Not insignificant but not the majority either.

And less than that as you mover higher-end!

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you can have a 1m^3 of wood. Life is not Minecraft.

Would litres make more sense? It is kind of vague though, since you'd be paying for the cuts you have to make and material you'll lose.

No. Cubic meters is a volume measure, just as liter is. 1cm = 1000l

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were you asleep[1] the entire time? And that's just what Average Joe was pocketing. [1] https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/news/articles/update-three...

Guess you're forgetting the whole "lots of people not able being able to go to their job and get paid" thing during this time, right?

The context of my remark was in response to how "money being printed left and right..." --> "...end up in the hands of regular people doing renovation or home builds?"

Just because "lots of people not being able to go to their job and get paid" doesn't mean all or even most were in the same situation; the numbers[1] tell a different story, and that doesn't even begin to account for the aggregate impact of nationwide loan pauses, or the irrational exuberance in equity/crypto markets at the time.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=19GH4

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#148
post #5

The chart in the article does a nice job at illustrating that prices are roughly speaking back to essentially pre-pandemic levels after giant spikes. This seems healthy to me.

I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years ago https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

hmmmm... The chart doesn't show that. It has around 10% more to drop.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#149
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That... and grubby land grabs, cavalier/deranged development (Lennar), and ignorant newcomers who think making a subtropical keystone ecosystem conform to their hell of previous residence is justified by exorbitant checks and brutal disregard.

I’m interested to understand your concerns - is there one issue that you’d be able to expand on?

It would be more difficult to expound on a single issue than multiple, and usually a lack of dynamic isn't well received here on HN. I'm confident that most folks know little of Florida and care even less. My comment made reference to the reckless development occurring here (and elsewhere) by eg Lennar. The aesthetics are self explanatory, but the tangible consequences are perhaps more insidious, particularly for those coming in from elsewhere who have minimal understanding of 'natural' Florida to compare to. Florida, before retention ponds and sewage reservoirs were lobbied to qualify as substitutes, comprised of extensive wetlands. Lennar and others will grab huge tracts of land and install the antithesis of what they removed. Vast arrays of identical, shoddily constructed 'homes' stacked tightly beside themselves. The landscaping consists of hybrid grass that requires heavy maintenance and the plants are often growing in a layer of imported construction sand which requires never ending fertilization. Beyond the glorified retention ponds that pose as lakes, no efforts are made to retain any vestige of the original landscape. Wildlife is severely displaced and an alien, and I think verifiably hostile terrain, now sits beside a formerly natural terrain, which is usually scheduled for additional projects of identical quality.

Considering that books are written on the subject, it's not reasonable to summarize what's happening in Florida in single comment. The subject may be easily dismissed here as trivial in the carbon tunnel vision of wondrous 'hackers', but it's very real and recognized by many.

If you're young enough, you'll see the future look back in great disgust at what has been done to this state and others. If all newcomers to Florida were constrained to visit only Disneyland, they'd probably and understandably think it was an accurate representation. Lennar is Disney, without any of the cool stuff.

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