> If Kyber-512 is actually this risky, then it deserves to be communicated clearly.
The statement djb seems to be making: It is not known if Kyber-512 is as cryptographically strong as AES-128 by the definitions provided by NIST.
This is an issue because these algorithms will be embedded within hardware soon.
> Besides the fact that nobody is deploying standalone PQ for some time
Now that an implementation has been chosen to be standardized, hardware vendors are likely to start designing blocks that can more efficiently compute the FIPS 203 standard (if they haven't already designed a few to begin with).
Given that the standard's expected publication is in 2024, and the 1-2 year review timeline for NIST CMVP review on FIPS modules, I wouldn't be surprised to see a FIPS 140-3 Hardware Module with ML-KEM (Kyber-etc.) by mid 2026.
> a succinct breakdown of why
The issue seems to be his statement from [1]: "However, NIST didn't give any clear end-to-end statements that Kyber-512 has N bits of security margin in scenario X for clearly specified (N,X)."
djb succinctly outlines the "scenario X" he referred to in [2], in which he only needs a yes or no answer. He is literally asking the people who should know and be able to discuss the matter, who would have the technical background to discuss this matter. He had received no response, which is why he had posted [1].
NIST's reply in [3] is a dismissal of [1] without a discussion of the security itself. The frustrating part for me to read was the second paragraph: "The email you cited (https://groups.google.com/a/list.nist.gov/g/pqc-forum/c/4MBu...), speaks for itself. NIST continues to be interested in people's opinions on whether or not our current plan to standardize Kyber512 is a good one. While reviewers are free, as a fun exercise, to attempt to "disprove what NIST _appears_ to be claiming about the security margin," the results of this exercise would not be particularly useful to the standardization process. NIST's prior assertions and their interpretation are not relevant to the question of whether people believe that it is a good idea to standardize Kyber512."
If NIST views the reviewers' claims about security to be "not particularly useful to the standardization process," (and remember: the reviewers are themselves cryptographers) then why should the public trust the standard at all?
> a smoking gun or two would be great
There wouldn't be a smoking gun because the lack of clarification is the issue at hand. If they could explain how they calculated the security strength of Kyber-512, then this would be a different issue.
The current 3rd party estimates of Kyber-512's security strength (which is a nebulous term...) puts it below the original requirements, so clarification or justification seems necessary.
[1]: https://groups.google.com/a/list.nist.gov/g/pqc-forum/c/4MBu...
[2]: https://groups.google.com/a/list.nist.gov/g/pqc-forum/c/4MBu...
[3]: https://groups.google.com/a/list.nist.gov/g/pqc-forum/c/4MBu...