Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study • Hacker News Board

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#141

Post by hotpotamus » Fri, Sep 01, 2023, 1:18 PM UTC

remarkEon wrote: post #135

hotpotamus wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If society is already committing a fast suicide by destroying the habitability of the Earth, then doesn't it seem rational? Like imagine a meteor was going to destroy the Earth in a year - would it make sense to have children? 10 years? 100?

>If society is already committing a fast suicide by destroying the habitability of the Earth This sort of absurd hyperbole is a good sign you've been propagandized into believing something for the benefit of others.

Fast is a pretty relative term when it comes to geological and even civilizational time, so I don't know how absurd the hyperbole is, but I would say that I harbor deep sorrow for the children born within the last few years.

I don't know who it benefits if I believe that making significant alterations to the carbon content of the atmosphere of the Earth will have significant consequences (I don't feel much benefit from believing it; I wish I didn't), but I do see parties who stand to gain by denying it. I'd also love to believe in god and that there is meaning to any of this, but that does not mean that it is so.

Already where I live (South Texas) I can feel the effects - I've lived long enough to see the summers go from hot to dangerous, and the droughts become more severe; my co-worker's well literally ran dry a few weeks ago and he is far from alone. Running out of water will focus one on what is important.

I take zero joy in it, but the more I learn, the more I understand that humanity is living on borrowed time (not that different from an individual human I suppose), and we should try and enjoy the time that is left.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#142

Post by PaulHoule » Fri, Sep 01, 2023, 1:55 PM UTC

stephc_int13 wrote: post #102

rich_sasha wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true, and fair enough. It is also true that societies are brutally darwinian. The ones that prevail are the ones that can produce the most offspring, and bring it to economic maturity. This is the story behind the enormous success of China and India, per capita they are relatively poor but punch well above that weight since they have enormous populations. If they can sustain that population dynamic (which seems…

Having a huge population is extremely beneficial for leaders and for the so-called elite that profit from the pyramidal effect. But at the average individual level, I am not so sure.

If there are a lot of working people when you retire it is easy to pay for your retirement, both in the sense that they can pay taxes and in the sense that the growing economy makes the stock market grow up which makes private defined benefit or defined contribution plans work better. Billionaires benefit from it even more than you but you do benefit from it.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#143

Post by oneTbrain23 » Wed, Sep 06, 2023, 12:51 PM UTC

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

Just make life harder for singles but way better for married couples especially those reaching having children stages. Higher taxes for singles. No subsidies for expensive homes. No benefits. Reduced healthcare.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#144

Post by shrimp_emoji » Wed, Sep 06, 2023, 12:54 PM UTC

prewett wrote: post #107

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

Wanting to raise children requires a giving mindset. In US, at least, we have a very self-focused culture. From a perspective of self-actualization, children don't make sense. Unless it turns out that nurturing and developing others is part of what it means to be human...

Then why is this a worldwide phenomenon when standard of living rises to a certain level?

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#145

Post by pauldenton » Fri, Sep 08, 2023, 9:42 AM UTC

darklycan51 wrote: post #42

I don't think we can do much and I am not sure we should do much either. Things that contribute towards people not having kids (in any order): Prices are more expensive as a result of having more people (remember that for a long long time population was stable until artificial fertilizer allowed for pop boom) so people cannot afford to live off the father alone or with the mother having a small job only. corporate cu…

I think that fertility and immigration are tied at the hip. And that most countries are not like Japan so if young people cannot afford to have kids the bureaucrats will just import the next generation. There's an idea that when a country has no easy fix to fertility through immigration, they are forced to hard fixes for difficult problems blocking young people from being able to afford to raise the next generation

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#146

Post by pauldenton » Fri, Sep 08, 2023, 9:46 AM UTC

LarsDu88 wrote: post #70

As economies get more advanced, people begin to realize they don't or can't have kids who grow up to become farm workers or blue collar laborers. To raise a kid to become wealthy and white collar requires immense resources -- two full time working parents, real estate in a good school district, and child care for working mothers. Does any of this sound easy or feasible for the current generation in the United States?…

What happens if parents lower their standards? They live in the wrong school district and their kid busses an hour each way. Having more kids so instead of childcare you have the oldest raising the youngest? Our parents spent less, and our grandparents less still. Our grandparents somehow did fine without even having to pay for Internet or a monthly smart phone plan.

Why cannot people drop their standards to what their grandparents or great grandparents expected?

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#147

Post by LarsDu88 » Mon, Sep 11, 2023, 10:30 PM UTC

pauldenton wrote: post #146

LarsDu88 wrote: post #70

As economies get more advanced, people begin to realize they don't or can't have kids who grow up to become farm workers or blue collar laborers. To raise a kid to become wealthy and white collar requires immense resources -- two full time working parents, real estate in a good school district, and child care for working mothers. Does any of this sound easy or feasible for the current generation in the United States?…

What happens if parents lower their standards? They live in the wrong school district and their kid busses an hour each way. Having more kids so instead of childcare you have the oldest raising the youngest? Our parents spent less, and our grandparents less still. Our grandparents somehow did fine without even having to pay for Internet or a monthly smart phone plan. Why cannot people drop their standards to what the…

The simple answer is that most of the folks who have more kids will give rise to a generation of have-nots, and they will be on the unhappy side of an ever-widening gap between the super educated elites, and the merely educate plebes.

It's silly to think that people in the states can simply drop their standards to that of their grandparents, when most of the "grandparent generation" of boomers grew up before most manufacturing jobs were either outsourced or automated.

The mass automation of white collar industry that will happen withinin 20 years might reverse the dynamic IMO... where industries with ample training data for AI (mostly white collar knowledge economy stuff) will begin to automate as well, and blue collar jobs like construction (which may take longer to automate) will take much longer.