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How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

economist.com

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Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#141
post #121
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Engineers dancing around the fundamental constraints of reality deserve a bit more respect than folks complaining about learning the latest JS-of-the-month, all of which follow basic comp sci patterns.

You talk as if they're smart enough to learn something new. They're either smart or they're not. Which one is it?

Here's something new, perhaps: some things are much easier to learn than others.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#142

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

A commitment that apparently does not include: - treating anyone who isn't "white enough" with dignity and without extreme suspicion of being in the country illegally. Driving in texas and not white enough? You might end up in jail if you don't have sufficient proof on you that you're not "an illegal" - a reliable power grid, because they petulantly do not want to have to follow federal regulations in how they run sa…

It’s a law in many countries that you have to carry your ID with you, eg Germany. The police may do random check in high risk areas. Do you think Germany treats its citizens without dignity?

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the most resilient part of TX power grid" A roommate of mine once quipped on something: 'that's like saying my crap smells better than yours'. Feel free to correct me, I'm not an expert, but Texas runs its own state-only independent grid, it got completely pants in the ice storm a few years ago, and at the time a lot of articles said the Texas grid is fundamentally less resilient that other power companies. Is any o…

> However, Texas is loaded with sun/desert and I believe a ton of wind resources, so it has that going for it for next-generation industry. Surprisingly, you got to thank George Bush for that He made renewable wind and solar energy a major part of his energy policy when he was Govenor of TX. [0]. In 1999, he passed a law mandating Texas to get 2,000 megawatts of electricity from renewable energy by 2009. This helped…

Why's that surprising?

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't underestimate how powerful American (soft) influence is; many Taiwanese happily support these policies. But yes; Taiwan will end up losing on two ends: Massive tech transfer to the US. And a loss of access to its biggest market - mainland China.

I mean do you not have to hedge again china just landing troops on taiwan? I think the pandemic chip shortages threw into sharp relief that we are totally dependent on imports (and for higher end chips on taiwanese imports almost exclusively). If china decides to blockage or invade Taiwan it would be cataclysmic.

PRC/ROC conflict has been dormant for 70 years - maybe don’t stir it up?

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#145
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You talk as if they're smart enough to learn something new. They're either smart or they're not. Which one is it?

Here's something new, perhaps: some things are much easier to learn than others.

Obviously, but that doesn't change my mind here.

If you're in the 1% of top performers, you have the cognitive ability to learn new things.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#146
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

"the most resilient part of TX power grid" A roommate of mine once quipped on something: 'that's like saying my crap smells better than yours'. Feel free to correct me, I'm not an expert, but Texas runs its own state-only independent grid, it got completely pants in the ice storm a few years ago, and at the time a lot of articles said the Texas grid is fundamentally less resilient that other power companies. Is any o…

The laws of physics suggest an area about the size of Texas is all the bigger you can make a grid. AC is much better than DC for areas of that range, because you can adjust voltages with a cheap transforms. However if you get too large and feed the grid from multiple places, there gets to be a point in the middle where power from one end is driving the grid negative while the other is driving positive.

You can get around this with DC, and grids do interconnect with DC power, but that requires more expensive equipment.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, Texas is loaded with sun/desert and I believe a ton of wind resources, so it has that going for it for next-generation industry. Surprisingly, you got to thank George Bush for that He made renewable wind and solar energy a major part of his energy policy when he was Govenor of TX. [0]. In 1999, he passed a law mandating Texas to get 2,000 megawatts of electricity from renewable energy by 2009. This helped…

Why's that surprising?

Rhetorical flourish.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#149

Surprisingly few people engage with the main points of the article. It is pointed out how much money are spent, but the article is about how profitable those fabs will be. The author is conservative in judgments, but they ask a few questions worth considering, mainly: are the fabs big and efficient enough to offset the slower build, which is also more expensive, for lower volumes of production.

Profitability on the fab level is the wrong metric. Producing semiconductors, like producing vaccines, has large positive externalities. It enables basically the entire rest of the economy to function. These fabs could lose billions, kept alive by government subsidies, and still be a great deal for the country as a whole.

It’s hard to believe anything at the scale and complexity of a modern semiconductor fab industry could remain competitive without actually facing competitive market pressures.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#150
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like a union could help but I guess the odds of that are slim.

Is there anything a union can't help with, in your estimation?

Plenty. U**ons solve one problem only: when value created is high but leverage (=pay) is low.

The fact that this problem pops up all over the damn place should tell you something about our relationship to u**ons.

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