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In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

aier.org

141–150 of 312 posts

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#141
My bet here is that lockdowns, while originally intended to "flatten the curve" (and that was a good idea), turned out unexpectedly effective and appeared to reduce infection rates so quickly, especially in the beginning when people were very afraid and lockdown rules were strictly adhered to, that someone got an idea of just resolving the problem altogether by doing "lockdown to elimination", until it became evident that you can't lock down every country in the world unless you threaten/use nukes, and shutting down travel indefinitely is also not possible, and the whole thing became a charade.

Lesson learned for the liberals is to listen to those on the right at least from time to time. If they sometimes behave like idiots it doesn't mean they really are. Republicans got it right on the Covid question.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#142
This is from a conservative - right wing propaganda outlet.

That being said, what happened in 1957-58 doesn't really apply here. First, population density wasn't nearly what it was today. It was the land of single-family homes and automobiles, not high-rises, dense air travel and public transit.

Secondly, the lockdowns were necessary to prevent the healthcare system from collapsing. Rate-limiting the illness with lockdowns and other NPIs allowed hospitals to remain functional and adapt to the crisis. In Italy at the onset of the pandemic, the Italian healthcare system dealt with collapse and rationing of care, with physicians choosing which people to treat and who to leave to die.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#144
post #114

There's always pros and cons. In retrospect, it's easier to be critical than when you actually have to deal with the crisis.

[flagged]

This mindset is a comfortable position for people to retreat to when they don't want to discuss a situation rationally based on information known at the time but rather want to retroactively push a personal agenda.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#145

> The American Institute for Economic Research educates people on the value of personal freedom, free enterprise, property rights, limited government, and sound money Saved some of you a click hopefully

Are any of those things bad by themself or in combination?

Certainly not! The fundamental problem is that arguments written from a naive perspective of assuming/asserting we have these things, while we most definitely do not, end up advocating for horribly oppressive policies.

The current government policy is that most everyone should be continually working around 40 hours a week, enforced by a financial treadmill created by continual monetary stimulus. So this noble idea that people could have individually chosen to self isolate or freely associate is fallacious with our current setup. Without "lockdowns" (aka closing businesses), most people would have been forced to keep going into work for business as usual, just as they do for other communicable diseases until the symptoms cannot be ignored.

Centralized control begets more centralized control to address its own failings. Focusing on surface issues while ignoring their underlying causes just makes you end up being a tool for entrenched interests wanting authoritarian policies that benefit them.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For those that are interest in the nuances of modelling infections, I'm going to leave a Wikipedia extract here. "R_{0} is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population. R_{0} values are usually estimated from mathematical models, and the estimated values are dependent on the model used and values of other…

> it is recommended not to ... compare values based on different models i.e. R0 numbers are worthless. You can't compare these values between pathogens, you can't even compare them between different academic groups studying the same pathogen or between outbreaks of the same pathogen as modeled by different versions of the same software. There's no agreed way to measure this value empirically. Instead they write a pro…

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Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are any of those things bad by themself or in combination?

Personal freedom can be a bad idea in crisis situations. Selflessness and following procedure can be better for the collective. This is why crisis operators follow checklists rather than giving each individual absolute personal freedom.

That's a theory for countries without a Bill of Rights to practice.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#148

This article immediately claims that the Asian Flu in question was far deadlier than COVID. This is categorically false. In fact, it's not even close. The article claims 116k US deaths attributable to the Asian flu. Meanwhile, there were 10x that number of excess US deaths during the COVID pandemic. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid As others have pointed out, the AIER is a conservative think-tank. I…

You are comparing those numbers directly, but that's not how you compare those numbers. First the population size, as per the article, was half what it is now. So you can either double the asian flu deaths or half the covid deaths to account for this. That still leaves a huge gap, but this is where demographic analysis comes in. Usually you see this as age adjusted deaths. In this case, the population of the US has b…

I think this depends on the disease. Some diseases impact the young more than the old. The calculus required to compare age adjusted deaths by the demographic curve of mortality by pathogen is probably complex.

But I would also note that when you are dying or your loved ones die waving age or obesity adjustments to claim it’s not that bad doesn’t work very well. 1.1m deaths is still 10x more, and even on a per capita, it’s still 5x greater net “mourning.”

Whether the same pathogen would have been worse in one decade vs another I think is sort of irrelevant. The public health goal is the reduce mortality over all.

(N.b., I recognize you probably didn’t mean to minimize anyone’s loss - but I am trying to make the point that demographic analysis might or might not be explanatory of the severity of 2020, it doesn’t make 2020 any less severe)

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#149

Did Sweden end up worse off with no lockdown? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/30/opinion/sweden-pandemic-c...

> Did Sweden end up worse off with no lockdown?

I'm wondering how a reading of that article could lead anyone to quote it as an example of 'no lockdowns' - its very explicit that in many ways the measures taken in Sweden were even more restrictive (after 2020) than its neighbors in Norway and Denmark - both of which fared better than Sweden, both in deaths-per-million and also in the effect that the pandemic had on the economy.

The truth is that while the initial (and quite brief) open policies were in place, the authorities mistakenly thought that herd-immunity was close to being achieved, and that the astronomically high number of deaths (at several stages, the highest number of deaths-per-million in the world), were worth the reward of achieving it. The government even had one workshop where they discussed with relevant authorities how they would handle the negative press from other countries when Sweden could announce they were 'over' the pandemic (this was naturally before the catastrophic fall and winter of 2020).

After the deadly winter, the government more firmly took the reins from the health authority, and people outside Sweden would be surprised to hear how many restrictions were actually in place: including bans on group meetings, caps on the number of people who could enter a store at the same time, high school kids studying from home, and so on.

But most of all, Sweden is a country where people have lived with 'social distancing' for centuries: Stockholm has the highest number of single-person households of any capital city in the world, and that pattern is repeated all over this sparsely-poulated country. In the summers, a vast number of people leave towns and use their summer-places in the countryside - another tradition that's been going-on for the last couple of centuries. In the summer of 2020 I was in Stockholm, and would often be the only person eating in a restaurant that would normally be packed with people.

All of these factors helped Sweden to keep down what would otherwise have been even more catastrophic numbers of dead. Which isn't to say that the number of people who did die - often without any medical care whatsoever in the case of many elderly people in homes that were supposed to be somehow 'protected' from the pandemic - is not a massive tragedy, that Swedes themselves hardly talk about any longer. Because it really was both a callous loss of life, and a traumatic triumph of selfishness over common welfare.

Re: In the Asian Flu of 1957-58, they rejected lockdowns (2021)

#150
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is deadlier, being shot in the head with a .50 cal, or catching the flu? The former is much deadlier - it's basically guaranteed death - but the latter is so much more frequent that it claims more lives even though the vast majority of people survive it. Usually "deadlier" refers to the chances a given event will kill you if it happens, not normalized for the frequency of those events. The flu most certainly cl…

But now you're comparing individual outcomes to population outcomes. Yes, getting shot in the head is deadlier than (catching) the spanish flu. But the Spanish flu was deadlier than firearms/WW1. That's often the limit of analogies.

Sorry I think you’re confusing “deadlier” with “more death,” deadliness is a measure of likelihood of dying when exposed to the situation. Something can be much less deadly yet more people are exposed to the situation and it causes more death. Ebola is undoubtedly more deadly than covid. But it’s much less virulent, partially because it is so deadly. There’s no super spreading symptom free stuff going on with Ebola. Just death.
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