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China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

bloomberg.com

141–150 of 238 posts

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is about undisclosed foreign reserves, not any foreign reserves. There’s general consensus among economists and political scientists that maintaining foreign reserves is both good for countries and for global peace, but that really only works if everybody knows you’re doing it[1]. In other words: it’s easier to think of untoward reasons for hiding foreign reserves than honest ones. That’s why there’s a st…

Why would any country in a remotely adversarial relationship with America disclose their foreign reserves, especially in USD and EURO after what they did to Russia’s reserves? Just means that anything the country does against western interests will get their known reserves frozen.

> Why would any country in a remotely adversarial relationship with America disclose their foreign reserves, especially in USD and EURO after what they did to Russia’s reserves?

For one: failing to disclose foreign reserves makes a relationship more adversarial, not less adversarial.

For another: why are we assuming that China's foreign reserves are in banks that the US controls, or can otherwise curtail access to? The situation with Russia is instructive: CBR claimed to have around 50% of its reserves in US or EU institutions, but only a tiny fraction of that has actually been found[1]. It's much more likely that China, like Russia, is keeping the majority of its reserves in home (or friendly nation) banks.

[1]: https://www.intellinews.com/the-eu-can-t-find-most-of-russia...

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#142
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which country’s values do you prefer influencing the developing world: China’s, or the United States’?

That's a very charitable interpretation. It's rather, which would you rather the developing world be exploited by, US or China? We have pretty extensive track record of developing countries being exploited by western economies. And it aint pretty. So the best case you can make for the US is thay familiar devil is better because it's familiar.

I would rather third world countries be exploited by the US, since it would mean my country projects its power to those regions. My stable, democratic country.

The lack of realpolitik in this thread is astounding. We don’t live in a perfect world, where economies of real people in countries that need roads and telecom get to say “No thank you, your country’s history is gross.”

Belt and Road is a massive soft power grab by an autocratic dictatorship. That has enormous implications in geopolitics. China is about to collapse because it’s in a demographic tailspin. What happens to these initiatives — and those countries that depend on them - is a huge open question and risk.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#143
post #135
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not when they are built by Chinese companies, using Chinese sourced labour and supplies, and then the locals are taxed / billed to use them which many can't afford to begin with. Not to mention the governments now owing that loan money plus interest, none of which really went into the local economy. Not arguing against China, nor infrastructure projects, but B&R initiative is very China-centric, with a lot caveats th…

I love this condescending and infantilising tone of yours, regarding African governments as some gullible, uneducated bunches of toddlers that anyone can just walk in and take advantage of - as if they weren’t perfectly capable of signing their own deals. Fitting such casual “Africa dumb” and “China evil” sentiments in one nonchalant comment seems like such a weird specialty of this brainwashing and propaganda that w…

> regarding African governments as some gullible, uneducated bunches of toddlers

They’re not stupid, they’re corrupt. The elites get a slice of the pie. It’s how development finance has been done for centuries. “Stakeholders” are bought off. The country is left with the bill.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#144
post #94
post #13

These currency reserves largely represent loans China issued abroad, which have been paid off (or are in the process of being served). Similar to Eurodollars in the past yielding outsized interest rates, increasing demand and thus dollar outflows, this shows a (perhaps?) unrecognized accumulation in China, which may very well either allow them to essentially print their own dollars or mean that they already have been…

> Similar to Eurodollars in the past yielding outsized interest rates, increasing demand and thus dollar outflows Genuinely curious, do you happen to have a link about that? When did it happen? The ‘70s, the ‘80s? I’m on my (small-screen) phone and I’m also a little lazy to try and search for it right now. More generally, I feel that the outside investments that bring in lots of money for those involved is not a topi…

> Genuinely curious, do you happen to have a link about that? When did it happen? The ‘70s, the ‘80s?

There was a recent Odd Lots podcast on the genesis of the Eurodollar market.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-19/josh-youn...

Or, if you prefer video or don't pay for Bloomberg:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0EN8_WuvK8

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#145

The problem is that China does not want to become the US, they want to become colonial great Britain or France. The goal is classic mercantilism-all raw material have to go through them to become a product. It's barely disgused Manchester allover. The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite frien…

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Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#146
post #71

The problem is that China does not want to become the US, they want to become colonial great Britain or France. The goal is classic mercantilism-all raw material have to go through them to become a product. It's barely disgused Manchester allover. The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite frien…

I'd say the US is a hegemon but not really an Empire except for a few small islands. They've also made some terrible mistakes such as Vietnam and the 2nd Gulf War. The way the US prosecuted the Korean war was also inexcusable, although I think that one did need to be fought. Let's add some appalling interventions in South America while we're at it. On the other hand the 1st Gulf War was unavoidable, and overall with…

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Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#147
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These currency reserves largely represent loans China issued abroad, which have been paid off (or are in the process of being served). I think you missed a crisis in Africa. Those loans can hardly be paid off, the interest rates are too high and the borrowed loans Kuch for infrastructure projects aren't leading to any improvements / revenue. If so, show me which have a net benefit for the country where loans are us…

You’re saying that building roads and bridges is not beneficial to countries which deeply lack roads and bridges?

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Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is about a foreign country loaning foreign currency to other foreign governments. That, most definitely, does not contribute to world peace or stability.

> That, most definitely, does not contribute to world peace or stability. Why not? Dependency makes peace more probable.

For roughly equal powers and if its bidirectional, maybe.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#149
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love this condescending and infantilising tone of yours, regarding African governments as some gullible, uneducated bunches of toddlers that anyone can just walk in and take advantage of - as if they weren’t perfectly capable of signing their own deals. Fitting such casual “Africa dumb” and “China evil” sentiments in one nonchalant comment seems like such a weird specialty of this brainwashing and propaganda that w…

> regarding African governments as some gullible, uneducated bunches of toddlers They’re not stupid, they’re corrupt. The elites get a slice of the pie. It’s how development finance has been done for centuries. “Stakeholders” are bought off. The country is left with the bill.

Exactly. And if a ruler’s elite supporters find out he turned down Chinese loans that he could’ve used to give his elite supporters lots of free money, they’ll remove him from power and put someone else in that will take the loan money and pay it out to the elites.

CGPGrey has a great video called ‘Rules for Rulers’ that explains this in depth: https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#150
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not when they are built by Chinese companies, using Chinese sourced labour and supplies, and then the locals are taxed / billed to use them which many can't afford to begin with. Not to mention the governments now owing that loan money plus interest, none of which really went into the local economy. Not arguing against China, nor infrastructure projects, but B&R initiative is very China-centric, with a lot caveats th…

So what do you suggest as a better alternative? The West has tried and failed with countless “solutions” for more than six decades now, in many places making the situation worse compared to the start of the decolonization process. Also, road taxes is a measure that it is also heavily promoted by the European Commission in the Eastern European countries where “its” money is now helping build bridges and highways (I li…

lmao if the west really wanted to help Africa or Asia in the name of lifting everyone on the globe out of poverty it would be something like Marshall plan & how EU is integrating the balkans (Marshall plan in todays dollars is like 130 billion :))
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