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Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

am.jpmorgan.com

141–150 of 152 posts

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#141
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [...] SVB was actually assuming quite a bit of risk. Honest question: compared to what? Did long duration assets (like bonds) comprise a greater proportion of SVB's assets compared to, say, JP Morgan? Or is the case that JP Morgan is as insolvent as SVB, but JPM's depositors are less likely to withdraw their funds (because it's a big bank and it has primarily retail customers)? These are honest questions; I'm not s…

> Did long duration assets (like bonds) comprise a greater proportion of SVB's assets compared to, say, JP Morgan? Yes. JPMorgan is subject to the Fed’s stress tests and Basel III, both of which test duration. (SVB successfully lobbied to be exempt from both.)

> SVB successfully lobbied to be exempt from both

Ow the irony

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#142
post #91
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK, you are only covered up to £80k though... I could understand people wanting to get at least money over £80k out, but also how long does it take to get access to your cash if you have to go through the government insurance procedure. Is it days, weeks, months ? I have no idea and wouldn't want to have to find out.

> In the UK, you are only covered up to £80k though... Per bank.

Per banking group - a dangerous distinction! If you have 80k GBP in each of Bank of Scotland, Halifax and Lloyds Bank then you have 160k GBP at risk!

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#143
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was not my argument. I tried to explain for the purposes of banking many alternatives were available. If it's credit they were looking for, banks only lend what you can offer as collateral. Funds come from the VCs.

I feel like there is some disconnect. Maybe I don't understand your question I was answering why startups need a bank, and it isn't just for loans. The most basic needs for an account is so that you can 1) store the money you get from VCs, 2) pay your employees, 3) receive payments from customers. Do you see why a company needs a bank account? Without a bank you need to operate in cash and have a room somewhere full…

> What bank ever refused a Startup if what they are looking for is just banking? And what do startups want with a bank? Are they not capitalized by the VC's?

I do not think I said a company does not need a bank? My comment was in response to the statements trying to imply SVB, was the only option for Startups or that other banks would not accept Startups as clients.

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#144
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like there is some disconnect. Maybe I don't understand your question I was answering why startups need a bank, and it isn't just for loans. The most basic needs for an account is so that you can 1) store the money you get from VCs, 2) pay your employees, 3) receive payments from customers. Do you see why a company needs a bank account? Without a bank you need to operate in cash and have a room somewhere full…

> What bank ever refused a Startup if what they are looking for is just banking? And what do startups want with a bank? Are they not capitalized by the VC's? I do not think I said a company does not need a bank? My comment was in response to the statements trying to imply SVB, was the only option for Startups or that other banks would not accept Startups as clients.

I see, my answer pertains to your 2nd and 3rd question, not the first.

Regarding the first, I am not expert. Many commenters in the various threads have highlighted problems they have had at other banks, such as banks rejecting VC wires or stupid profitability requirements for lines of credit. It mostly sounds like banking SOPs which are incompatible with startups.

It sounds stupid but I have run into similar problems working at large companies trying to partner or buy startups. We want some IP from some small startup and begin financial disclosures. Some idiot in finance runs the numbers and sees the startup is losing $X per year and puts up a red flag on the deal. Like, no shit it is unprofitable, it is a startup and we want their IP.

Edit: I just saw this relevant thread:https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1634735012955279360

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#145
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [...] SVB was actually assuming quite a bit of risk. Honest question: compared to what? Did long duration assets (like bonds) comprise a greater proportion of SVB's assets compared to, say, JP Morgan? Or is the case that JP Morgan is as insolvent as SVB, but JPM's depositors are less likely to withdraw their funds (because it's a big bank and it has primarily retail customers)? These are honest questions; I'm not s…

> Did long duration assets (like bonds) comprise a greater proportion of SVB's assets compared to, say, JP Morgan? Yes. JPMorgan is subject to the Fed’s stress tests and Basel III, both of which test duration. (SVB successfully lobbied to be exempt from both.)

Further to regulatory exemptions:

>For systemically important banks, no adjustment for AFS is needed because all AFS unrealized gains and losses are already reflected in their reported capital ratios. As a result, only gains and losses in the HTM portfolio need to be included in our adjustment. For these four banks ...

So, regulations turn a blind eye to HTM losses for any bank under $1T in assets:

https://banks.data.fdic.gov/bankfind-suite/financialreportin...

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good ref, I had no clue of bilious existence. Yes, reality eventually back fires. It's not like the fed figured they should turn around because "inflation". It may simply be that they can't keep printing since it has become much harder to dump it anymore on (global) producers. See the geopolitics, Finance101 isn't enough to grasp the magnitude and seriousness of what's been going on lately.

The problem is, this is not true. Look at the history of the stock market. There's a whole science about "Valuation". Like all sciences it has a long history and it evolves. It has evolved, a lot over the years. And with it, the prevalent valuation of companies has changed, likewise by a LOT (generally going up, by a lot). So you'll have to be more precise? There are many valuation philosophies, from N profit, to val…

I'm sorry I didn't use the word "reality" as to define some alternative interpretation or a better philosophical approach to valuation, but trying to see what you mean. We can even consider WeWork and a few other valuations on the edge, or of some obsolete past.

By reality here I meant that SVB caught itself having to liquidate positions to get, what I suppose is, enough liquidity to operate. Realised a significant loss, and the cashflow got aggravated when investors and depositors reacted to that information.

Reality that some (chief?) executive, based on perhaps unrelared reasons, sold a big bag of shares, and that information spread and caused further market pressure, followed later on by more run on the bank.

Reality that entering 2023 the fed continued to raise the interest rate and the tech sector saw further negative prospects, at least from the point of view of investors, aggravating SVB's situation. In particular when Moody was about to downgrade the bank rating.

I don't have a crystal ball, neither did SVB, and its CFO surely is many folds better at strategic/tactical financing than I, but this series of events is although summarised the way it unfolded for them and I refer to reality calling back because, it doesn't matter how the books looked like or what philosophy was used in 2021, in September last year, or at the latest financial disclosure. Wires couldn't be honored and.. reality call happens. Not my reality. The reality, which i would call accountinglessly obvious.

About "the end" I don't see it that way at all. We certainly aren't dead. Death though already owns most of life and keeps growing relatively to the living. It doesn't imply we will necessarily all end up dead.

Lastly, back to the market and the demise of some major bank, or all of them if needs be, it matters very little to life. Not all that serious if you want my take on it.

Let's see what Monday morning got to say, reality is what it is.

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#147
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What bank ever refused a Startup if what they are looking for is just banking? And what do startups want with a bank? Are they not capitalized by the VC's? I do not think I said a company does not need a bank? My comment was in response to the statements trying to imply SVB, was the only option for Startups or that other banks would not accept Startups as clients.

I see, my answer pertains to your 2nd and 3rd question, not the first. Regarding the first, I am not expert. Many commenters in the various threads have highlighted problems they have had at other banks, such as banks rejecting VC wires or stupid profitability requirements for lines of credit. It mostly sounds like banking SOPs which are incompatible with startups. It sounds stupid but I have run into similar problem…

Interesting...thanks for sharing.

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is, this is not true. Look at the history of the stock market. There's a whole science about "Valuation". Like all sciences it has a long history and it evolves. It has evolved, a lot over the years. And with it, the prevalent valuation of companies has changed, likewise by a LOT (generally going up, by a lot). So you'll have to be more precise? There are many valuation philosophies, from N profit, to val…

I'm sorry I didn't use the word "reality" as to define some alternative interpretation or a better philosophical approach to valuation, but trying to see what you mean. We can even consider WeWork and a few other valuations on the edge, or of some obsolete past. By reality here I meant that SVB caught itself having to liquidate positions to get, what I suppose is, enough liquidity to operate. Realised a significant l…

My point is that you imply current valuations are unrealistic and must fall back to reality, which presumably is realistic valuations, but you neglect to define both unrealistic valuations and realistic valuations. You know, in a way that allows me to take a company, look at say, balance sheets, and tells me which is which.

I guess I made you give some examples, which is already a big improvement.

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#149
Not quite sure how much to look into but the operating of the UK side seems flawed. One Director left in Jan, and the particular Director has previously had 35 businesses all of which were lending companies and paid significant dividends. There seems to be a trend. I dont think this is poor risk management, I think this was very intentional.

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure [pdf]

#150
post #120
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SVB just went bankrupt pursuing that strategy... That being said, I don't think it's possible for all banks to hedge interest rate risk. The risk, to the system as a whole, doesn't go away just because it's transferred to someone else.

Swaps do indeed transfer that risk to other parties, at a premium because those other parties are more able to absorb the risk. While, sure, there are systematic stresses across the whole financial system, it doesn't mean that there aren't counterparties more capable of managing interest rate risk and willing to do so for a fee. This can be done by just having a larger balance sheet, or blending durations. Seems like…

Who are these counterparties that can absorb trillions of dollars in interest rate risk?

My amateur understanding is that this counterparty would need to be short long bonds, ie. be a bond issuer. And they would need to be interested in exchanging their fixed interest rate for a variable one.

If the above is correctly understood I don't see how banks can find issuers of trillions of dollars worth of bonds that want a variable interest rate in a rising interest rate environment.

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